Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Oct. 30, 2015

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $99.3500 (-0.77%) ($98.0300 - $101.6400) on Fri. Oct. 30, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $99.3500(-0.77%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 9.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(66%)    XBI(64%)    ARKG(56%)    IWO(54%)    IWM(48%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2.5% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-19%)    TLT(-11%)    SHY(-10%)    GDXJ(-6%)    UUP(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.5% (StdDev 5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1%

5 Day Moving Average   $100.84(-1.48%)
10 Day Moving Average   $95.71(3.8%)
20 Day Moving Average   $92.52(7.38%)
To recent high   -24.4%
To recent low   22.5%
Market Cap   $6.002b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 7.71% (three month std-dev: 5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -1.59%(100%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 3.62%(75%) Average negative next three day return: -4.85%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 3.63%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.14%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151130

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_30_2015	104.75	92.52	95.71	100.84	101.32	101.46	99.35(-0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	19	20	-10	107	0.32	46%	-0.09	25.8	5%	0	1	60	INF
2	Oct_29_2015	104.84	92.68	94.49	100.36	100.59	103.11	100.12(-5.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	58	180	37	120	0.37	46%	-0.08	31.2	5.04%	0	1	59	INF
3	Oct_28_2015	104.92	92.54	92.99	98.48	98.78	101.19	106.2(4.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	80	180	68	116	0.44	48%	0.02	22.4	5.03%	0	2	68	INF
4	Oct_27_2015	104.9	91.95	90.43	94.64	95.28	98.07	101.25(4.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	54	230	50	64	0.42	48%	-0.07	0.6	5.03%	0	1.5	54	INF
5	Oct_26_2015	104.97	91.19	88.49	91.54	91.95	96.38	97.28(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	54	350	61	31	0.36	48%	-0.13	-28.6	5.04%	0	1	52	INF

6	Oct_23_2015	105.11	90.71	87.62	89.87	89.51	92.48	96.95(6.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	55	220	70	10	0.58	48%	-0.14	-53.9	5.09%	0	1	45	INF
7	Oct_22_2015	105.26	90.51	86.85	87.85	87.5	87.52	90.72(4.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	4	-10	19	-43	0.59	45%	-0.27	-83.4	5.04%	0	0	35	INF
8	Oct_21_2015	105.54	91	86.51	86.67	86.84	86.53	87.02(1.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-18	-20	0	-72	0.32	45%	-0.35	-95.4	5.05%	0	-0.6	39	INF
9	Oct_20_2015	105.91	91.92	87.24	85.49	86.15	87.48	85.74(-3.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-9	130	13	-76	0.49	45%	-0.38	-101.1	5.1%	0	-0.8	41	INF
10	Oct_19_2015	106.31	92.97	88.03	84.84	85.02	87.15	88.94(2.45%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	1	180	24	-69	0.54	45%	-0.33	-101.5	5.13%	0	-0.5	55	INF

11	Oct_16_2015	106.66	94.04	89.01	85.03	84.58	84.83	86.81(2.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-9	0	9	-61	0.46	45%	-0.39	-80.4	5.16%	0	-0.6	52	INF
12	Oct_15_2015	107.08	96.05	90.68	85.81	85.66	82.88	84.85(4.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-34	-230	-26	-59	0.84	45%	-0.44	-65.2	5.2%	0	-0.8	44	INF
13	Oct_14_2015	107.55	98.27	92.09	86.42	87.23	84.33	81.13(-1.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-66	-200	-64	-73	0.53	45%	-0.53	-58.6	5.2%	0	-1.2	36	INF
14	Oct_13_2015	108.12	100.42	93.71	89.24	89.35	88.45	82.49(-8.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-41	-70	-37	-54	0.7	45%	-0.52	-52.9	5.26%	0	-1.3	34	INF
15	Oct_12_2015	108.69	102.47	94.33	91.57	91.36	90.13	89.89(-0.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-26	-100	-17	-54	0.33	48%	-0.39	-50.1	5.19%	0	-0.9	37	INF

16	Oct_9_2015	109.12	104.09	94.25	93.59	92.67	90.25	90.7(3.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-60	-210	-53	-80	0.47	48%	-0.39	-45.1	5.25%	0	-0.9	35	INF
17	Oct_8_2015	109.55	105.63	94.64	96.39	96.08	92.58	87.87(-7.77%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-58	-260	-46	-95	0.7	48%	-0.47	-39.5	5.28%	0	-1.2	26	INF
18	Oct_7_2015	110.07	107.3	96.03	98.61	98.54	95.1	95.27(1.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-63	-250	-46	-112	0.38	51%	-0.33	-37.3	5.22%	0	-0.9	27	INF
19	Oct_6_2015	110.43	108.6	97.05	98.82	99.01	99.58	94.12(-5.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-37	50	-11	-113	0.56	51%	-0.36	-34.2	5.28%	0	-1	32	INF
20	Oct_5_2015	110.83	110.14	98.33	97.32	97.99	101.98	100(-4.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	22	310	64	-105	0.41	54%	-0.25	-33.8	5.27%	0	-0.7	36	INF

21	Oct_2_2015	111.11	110.99	99.36	94.9	94.29	98.44	104.69(5.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	17	290	65	-126	0.66	54%	-0.15	-38.2	5.29%	0	-0.5	38	INF
22	Oct_1_2015	111.28	111.58	101.52	92.78	91.73	93.99	98.98(2.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-13	140	31	-144	0.54	51%	-0.3	-40.4	5.27%	0	-0.9	35	INF
23	Sep_30_2015	111.61	112.74	104.52	93.32	92.32	90.14	96.31(11.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-51	-200	-17	-151	0.65	51%	-0.38	-36	5.32%	0	-1.2	33	INF
24	Sep_29_2015	112.04	113.59	107.28	95.34	95.02	89.47	86.61(-1.46%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-117	-420	-96	-178	0.55	46%	-0.64	-30	5.02%	0	-2.1	20	INF
25	Sep_28_2015	112.76	115.02	111.1	99.54	99.82	94.51	87.89(-6.61%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-117	-360	-103	-158	0.83	46%		-17.8	5.09%	0	-2.4	19	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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