Trading Signals: PGR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Oct. 21, 2014

Trading Signals: PGR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Progressive Corporation)
PGR latest price $22.3316 (2.57%) ($21.8413 - $22.3403) on Tue. Oct. 21, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.78% (three month average)
RSI   54
Latest Price   $22.3316(2.57%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   PGR advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PGR declines -1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PGR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(54%)    XLF(51%)    XLP(50%)    XLV(50%)    VT(49%)
Factors Impacting PGR price   PGR will decline at least -0.39% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-22%)    TLT(-13%)    IGOV(-8%)    UUP(-4%)    GLD(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.39% (StdDev 0.78%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $19.09(-14.52%)
5 Day Moving Average   $21.73(2.77%)
10 Day Moving Average   $21.85(2.2%)
20 Day Moving Average   $22.03(1.37%)
To recent high   -0.5%
To recent low   9.3%
Market Cap   $13.073b

Progressive Corp. is an insurance holding company, which engages in the provision of personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services. It operates through the following segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, Property, and Other Indemnity. The Personal Lines segment includes agency and direct businesses. The Commercial Lines segment writes primary liability and physical damage insurance for automobiles and trucks owned and operated predominately by small business in the auto, for-hire transportation, contractor, for-hire specialty, tow, and for-hire livery markets. The Property segment covers residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters. The Other Indemnity segment manages run-off businesses. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, OH.

$. PGR price fluctuates within 1.41% (three month std-dev: 0.78%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141121

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_21_2014	21.77	22.03	21.85	21.73			22.33(2.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.9	-10	-10000	14	-82	2.79	60%	0.05	-36.9	0.78%	0	1	54	0
2	Oct_20_2014	21.76	22.02	21.82	21.61			21.77(0.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-30	-10000	1	-122	2.69	55%	0	-48.5	0.72%	0	-0.8	44	0
3	Oct_17_2014	21.76	22.04	21.88	21.6			21.68(1.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-36	-10000	-5	-128	5.31	52%	0	-48.5	0.71%	0	-1.2	39	0
4	Oct_16_2014	21.76	22.06	21.95	21.64			21.39(-0.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-45	-10000	-19	-121	5.76	49%	-0.05	-43.5	0.71%	0	-2.3	34	0
5	Oct_15_2014	21.77	22.11	22.04	21.79			21.46(-1.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-43	-10000	-26	-94	6.11	49%	-0.05	-28.4	0.71%	0	-2.7	39	0

6	Oct_14_2014	21.78	22.15	22.1	21.99			21.75(0.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-20	-10000	-8	-54	3.27	52%	0	-1.2	0.69%	0	-2.1	41	0
7	Oct_13_2014	21.78	22.16	22.14	22.05			21.72(-0.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-24	-10000	-18	-42	4.76	52%	0	15.6	0.69%	0	-2.6	45	0
8	Oct_10_2014	21.78	22.18	22.21	22.19			21.89(-1.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-14	-10000	-16	-6	4.66	48%	0	48.5	0.68%	0	-1.9	46	0
9	Oct_9_2014	21.78	22.19	22.25	22.31			22.12(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.3	6	-10000	-1	27	3.72	50%	0	69.1	0.75%	0	-0.5	50	0
10	Oct_8_2014	21.78	22.18	22.26	22.32			22.45(1.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	16	-10000	10	32	2.38	54%	0	63.6	0.72%	0	1.6	53	0

11	Oct_7_2014	21.78	22.15	22.26	22.24			22.1(-1.41%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	3	-10000	-1	16	2.6	50%	0	48.1	0.7%	0	-0.3	52	0
12	Oct_6_2014	21.78	22.14	22.23	22.25			22.41(-0.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	8	-10000	3	21	2.26	54%	0	42	0.68%	0	1.5	61	0
13	Oct_3_2014	21.78	22.11	22.21	22.23			22.45(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	9	-10000	5	21	2.13	54%	0.05	40.3	0.68%	0	2	63	0
14	Oct_2_2014	21.77	22.09	22.21	22.23			22.19(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	5	-10000	0	21	2.04	47%	0	45.6	0.67%	0	0.7	61	0
15	Oct_1_2014	21.77	22.09	22.18	22.19			22.04(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	5	-10000	-4	32	3.01	45%	0	48.5	0.67%	0	-0.2	57	0

16	Sep_30_2014	21.77	22.07	22.18	22.22			22.13(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	14	-10000	1	52	1.86	45%	0	58.8	0.67%	0	0.4	65	0
17	Sep_29_2014	21.77	22.06	22.19	22.21			22.31(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	19	-10000	4	62	2.31	47%	0.05	61.8	0.67%	0	1.7	73	0
18	Sep_26_2014	21.76	22.04	22.16	22.18			22.29(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	14	-10000	2	51	1.71	48%	0.05	65.6	0.82%	0	1.8	71	0
19	Sep_25_2014	21.75	22.02	22.12	22.16			22.16(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	8	-10000	-2	37	3.5	48%	0	60.9	0.94%	0	1	56	0
20	Sep_24_2014	21.75	22	22.1	22.18			22.23(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	14	-10000	3	45	2.78	48%	0.05	73.4	0.94%	0	1.6	63	0

21	Sep_23_2014	21.74	21.98	22.06	22.18			22.08(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	9	-10000	0	37	3.28	48%	0	81.4	0.94%	0	0.8	57	0
22	Sep_22_2014	21.74	21.97	22.04	22.15			22.16(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	10	-10000	2	33	2.45	48%	0.05	91.5	0.94%	0	1.5	55	0
23	Sep_19_2014	21.73	21.95	22.01	22.13			22.17(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	11	-10000	5	29	4.02	51%	0	87.5	0.95%	0	1.6	61	0
24	Sep_18_2014	21.73	21.93	21.99	22.08			22.3(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	13	-10000	7	29	1.8	51%	0.05	100	0.95%	0	2.8	71	0
25	Sep_17_2014	21.72	21.9	21.95	22.01			22.07(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.5	8	-10000	5	18	1.75	48%		118	0.95%	0	1.5	63	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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