Trading Signals: PEIX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 21, 2006

Trading Signals: PEIX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Mar. 24, 2005 - Fri. Jan. 29, 2021)

(Pacific Ethanol, Inc.)
PEIX latest price $1916.2500 (3.05%) ($1875.3000 - $1967.7000) on Mon. Aug. 21, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.91% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $1916.2500(3.05%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   PEIX advances 4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PEIX declines -4.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PEIX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EEM(16%)    IWM(16%)    EWY(15%)    SPY(15%)    VWO(15%)
Factors Impacting PEIX price   PEIX will decline at least -2.455% in a week (0% probabilities).
LQD(-8%)    TLT(-7%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(-1%)    GLD(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.455% (StdDev 4.91%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $1771.35(8.18%)
10 Day Moving Average   $1749.63(9.52%)
20 Day Moving Average   $1848.91(3.64%)
To recent high   -42.1%
To recent low   21.6%
Market Cap   $106.319b

Pacific Ethanol, Inc. engages in the production and marketing of carbon renewable fuel. It operates through the Ethanol Production, and Marketing and Distribution business segments. The Ethanol Production segment includes the production and sale of ethanol and co-products. The Marketing and Distribution segment comprises of the marketing and merchant trading of company-produced ethanol; and co-products and third-party ethanol. The company was founded by William L. Jones and Neil M. Koehler on January 30, 2003 and is headquartered in Sacramento, CA.

$. PEIX price fluctuates within 7.18% (three month std-dev: 4.91%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060921

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_21_2006	2696.58	1848.91	1749.63	1771.35	1795.96	1873.86	1916.25(3.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	1203	350	1432	516	0.02	43%	-0.13	-65.6	4.91%	0	0.5	44	NAN
2	Aug_18_2006	2700.16	1850.06	1739.97	1703.31	1715.7	1783.03	1859.55(7.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	795	300	961	295	0.04	40%	-0.17	-86.5	4.89%	0	0.1	43	NAN
3	Aug_17_2006	2704.81	1857.27	1741.35	1669.29	1668.65	1718.06	1727.25(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	630	210	771	205	0.02	32%	-0.23	-89.3	4.88%	0	-0.8	38	NAN
4	Aug_16_2006	2711.12	1880.87	1767.88	1672.44	1659.2	1648.37	1727.25(6.2%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.3	166	-70	224	-7	0.02	32%	-0.14	-80.9	5.02%	0	-0.9	36	NAN
5	Aug_15_2006	2715.04	1908.89	1797.41	1681.89	1669.96	1619.23	1626.45(3.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-740	-230	-844	-428	0.03	26%	-0.13	-78	4.94%	0	-1.5	29	NAN

6	Aug_14_2006	2718.58	1940.36	1834.76	1724.94	1722.66	1670.03	1576.05(-6.71%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-741	-220	-849	-416	0.02	26%	-0.12	-77	5.02%	0	-1.9	20	NAN
7	Aug_11_2006	2721.84	1976.35	1876.03	1779.75	1778.31	1720.69	1689.45(-3.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-690	-230	-794	-377	0.01	28%	-0.08	-79	4.97%	0	-1.6	33	NAN
8	Aug_10_2006	2724.01	2008.1	1901.19	1822.59	1817.22	1775.29	1743(-1.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-825	-170	-956	-433	0.02	28%	-0.08	-81.9	5%	0	-1.5	32	NAN
9	Aug_9_2006	2726.07	2035.81	1923.7	1877.4	1873.59	1835.93	1774.5(-3.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-485	-150	-557	-269	0.01	28%	-0.07	-80.3	5.03%	0	-1.4	25	NAN
10	Aug_8_2006	2728.11	2066.85	1941.24	1931.16	1926.49	1859.16	1841.7(-0.45%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-682	-250	-788	-365	0.01	35%	-0.06	-77.4	5.03%	0	-1.2	24	NAN

11	Aug_7_2006	2729.7	2096.56	1960.12	1962.24	1970.72	1911.26	1850.1(-2.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-872	-200	-1011	-454	0.02	35%	-0.06	-71.4	5.29%	0	-1.2	29	NAN
12	Aug_4_2006	2731.25	2130.74	1972.21	1985.97	2010.68	1993.82	1903.65(-5.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-283	-20	-315	-185	0.01	33%	-0.04	-62.5	5.29%	0	-1	30	NAN
13	Aug_3_2006	2732.34	2164.95	1984.31	1989.54	2005.5	2030.18	2017.05(-1.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	114	110	155	-11	0.01	34%	0.04	-53.8	5.31%	0	-0.6	32	NAN
14	Aug_2_2006	2731.25	2193.18	2001.93	1976.73	1982.93	2027.55	2043.3(2.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	456	170	560	144	0.02	38%	0.06	-45.2	5.32%	0	-0.6	35	NAN
15	Aug_1_2006	2729.69	2223.13	2025.39	1954.47	1962.25	1980.83	1997.1(1.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	381	80	474	101	0.02	38%	0.03	-39.2	5.44%	0	-0.9	28	NAN

16	Jul_31_2006	2729	2251.64	2049.6	1960.35	1946.9	1938.3	1968.75(2.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-108	-50	-99	-135	0.01	38%	0.04	-33.8	5.47%	0	-1.1	25	NAN
17	Jul_28_2006	2727.91	2275.47	2080.31	1958.04	1956.08	1943.68	1921.5(-1.61%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.1	-203	-50	-207	-189	0.01	38%	0.04	-34.5	5.51%	0	-1.4	19	NAN
18	Jul_27_2006	2726.76	2294.82	2120.42	1977.99	1973.74	1955.49	1953(1.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-329	-70	-354	-254	0.01	38%	0.03	-36.8	5.51%	0	-1.5	18	NAN
19	Jul_26_2006	2725.9	2310.01	2155.05	2031.54	2015.28	1968.49	1932(-4.66%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-595	-190	-667	-379	0.01	38%	-0.02	-33.7	5.51%	0	-1.8	16	NAN
20	Jul_25_2006	2726.36	2324.72	2202.43	2107.77	2096.27	1991.98	2026.5(3.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-922	-360	-1054	-527	0.02	38%	0.01	-27.3	5.49%	0	-1.5	17	NAN

21	Jul_24_2006	2725.98	2340.22	2244.42	2153.97	2170.82	2062.08	1957.2(-3.17%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-1434	-330	-1658	-763	0.03	42%	-0.02	-21.4	5.47%	0	-2	20	NAN
22	Jul_21_2006	2726.41	2362.83	2304.37	2220.12	2240.31	2200.55	2021.25(-8.98%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-825	-100	-948	-457	0.03	42%	-0.01	-8.4	5.61%	0	-2.1	34	NAN
23	Jul_20_2006	2726.8	2382.37	2363.74	2281.02	2284.08	2279.55	2220.75(-3.99%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-71	-10	-68	-80	0.01	45%	0.06	5.4	5.54%	0	-1.1	52	NAN
24	Jul_19_2006	2725.19	2385.1	2401.95	2295.72	2295.37	2280.08	2313.15(2.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-140	-50	-154	-96	0.01	45%	0.13	7.1	5.56%	0	-0.5	59	NAN
25	Jul_18_2006	2721.73	2380.58	2436.43	2313.36	2309.24	2288.61	2257.5(-1.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-356	-70	-416	-177	0.01	43%		12.7	5.55%	0	-0.8	60	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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