Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jul. 18, 2013

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $27.9000 (0.54%) ($27.8500 - $28.0000) on Thu. Jul. 18, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1% (three month average)
RSI   59
Latest Price   $27.9000(0.54%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(85%)    JNK(67%)    LQD(62%)    EEM(56%)    EWG(56%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.5% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(3%)    SHY(7%)    TLT(19%)    GLD(23%)    USO(25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.5% (StdDev 1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $27.58(1.16%)
10 Day Moving Average   $27.36(1.97%)
20 Day Moving Average   $27.18(2.65%)
To recent high   -10.6%
To recent low   7.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 1.8% (three month std-dev: 1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130818

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_18_2013	29.42	27.18	27.36	27.58			27.9(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	11	-10000	7	23	0.44	35%	-0.1	-28.9	1%	0	1.5	59	0
2	Jul_17_2013	29.45	27.17	27.3	27.48			27.75(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	15	-10000	11	27	1.1	35%	-0.07	-36.7	0.99%	0	1.2	65	0
3	Jul_16_2013	29.47	27.18	27.28	27.33			27.63(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	13	-10000	7	29	0.8	35%	-0.1	-39.4	0.99%	0	0.9	68	0
4	Jul_15_2013	29.5	27.21	27.27	27.24			27.37(0.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	18	-10000	5	56	1.17	35%	-0.1	-38.3	0.98%	0	0.3	72	0
5	Jul_12_2013	29.53	27.27	27.26	27.17			27.25(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	-10000	5	64	1	35%	-0.1	-35.1	0.98%	0	-0	59	0

6	Jul_11_2013	29.56	27.32	27.27	27.17			27.41(1.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	15	-10000	0	59	1.8	35%	-0.1	-37.7	0.98%	0	0.1	54	0
7	Jul_10_2013	29.59	27.35	27.2	27.1			26.97(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	3	-10000	-9	37	1.47	32%	-0.1	-41.8	0.95%	0	-0.5	42	0
8	Jul_9_2013	29.62	27.38	27.16	27.22			27.21(0.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-1	-10000	-7	18	1.35	32%	-0.1	-46.4	0.95%	0	-0.2	40	0
9	Jul_8_2013	29.65	27.43	27.03	27.31			27.03(0.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-10	-10000	-5	-24	1.22	33%	-0.1	-45.6	0.94%	0	-0.5	36	0
10	Jul_5_2013	29.68	27.5	26.99	27.37			26.86(-2.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-20	-10000	-6	-63	1.58	35%	-0.13	-44.3	0.94%	0	-0.8	33	0

11	Jul_3_2013	29.72	27.59	27	27.45			27.45(-0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-11	-10000	12	-78	0.64	39%	-0.13	-42.5	0.93%	0	-0.2	39	0
12	Jul_2_2013	29.76	27.65	27.03	27.3			27.54(-0.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-12	-10000	17	-100	1.92	39%	-0.1	-47.6	0.93%	0	-0.1	46	0
13	Jul_1_2013	29.79	27.72	27.07	27.08			27.67(1.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-7	-10000	29	-116	1.13	39%	-0.1	-56.2	0.93%	0	-0.1	50	0
14	Jun_28_2013	29.82	27.77	27.13	26.72			27.31(0.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-33	-10000	13	-171	1.37	37%	-0.1	-70.1	0.91%	0	-0.5	42	0
15	Jun_27_2013	29.85	27.85	27.25	26.56			27.26(1.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-46	-10000	4	-194	1.23	37%	-0.1	-76.8	0.91%	0	-0.6	39	0

16	Jun_26_2013	29.88	27.94	27.36	26.51			26.74(1.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-71	-10000	-18	-228	2.03	34%	-0.13	-81.8	0.87%	0	-1.2	33	0
17	Jun_25_2013	29.92	28.06	27.48	26.72			26.42(2.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-79	-10000	-30	-225	1.26	31%	-0.13	-81.5	0.86%	0	-1.7	30	0
18	Jun_24_2013	29.96	28.22	27.62	27.07			25.86(-2.53%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.3	-94	-10000	-47	-235	2.55	26%	-0.13	-82.4	0.8%	0	-2.6	22	0
19	Jun_21_2013	30	28.42	27.87	27.59			26.53(-1.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-77	-10000	-41	-185	2.28	29%	-0.13	-82.1	0.75%	0	-2.4	28	0
20	Jun_20_2013	30.04	28.6	28.08	28.02			27(-2.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-53	-10000	-28	-129	3.04	31%	-0.13	-78.8	0.72%	0	-2.3	30	0

21	Jun_19_2013	30.08	28.76	28.26	28.31			27.81(-1.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-27	-10000	-3	-97	2.12	34%	-0.1	-72	0.63%	0	-1.4	33	0
22	Jun_18_2013	30.11	28.88	28.35	28.34			28.14(-1.09%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-18	-10000	11	-104	1.7	36%	-0.1	-70.3	0.62%	0	-1	36	0
23	Jun_17_2013	30.14	28.98	28.43	28.24			28.45(-0.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-32	-10000	5	-144	1.28	38%	-0.1	-74.1	0.61%	0	-0.7	35	0
24	Jun_14_2013	30.17	29.08	28.47	28.2			28.71(0.88%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-44	-10000	4	-188	2.44	39%	-0.07	-74.3	0.6%	0	-0.5	33	0
25	Jun_13_2013	30.19	29.16	28.48	28.17			28.46(1.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-64	-10000	-6	-237	1.63	36%		-75.8	0.59%	0	-0.8	28	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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