Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Aug. 22, 2012

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $30.0200 (0.4%) ($29.9100 - $30.0200) on Wed. Aug. 22, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.32% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $30.0200(0.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(85%)    JNK(66%)    LQD(62%)    EEM(55%)    EWG(55%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.16% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(5%)    SHY(7%)    TLT(19%)    GLD(23%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.16% (StdDev 0.32%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $29.87(0.5%)
10 Day Moving Average   $29.97(0.17%)
20 Day Moving Average   $30.01(0.03%)
To recent high   -1.1%
To recent low   9.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 0.67% (three month std-dev: 0.32%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_22_2012	28.78	30.01	29.97	29.87			30.02(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-23	-10000	6	-108	1.2	75%	0.07	25.4	0.32%	0	0	51	0
2	Aug_21_2012	28.76	29.99	29.99	29.84			29.9(0.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-36	-10000	-11	-111	0.64	76%	0.07	15.6	0.32%	0	-0.4	47	0
3	Aug_20_2012	28.74	29.97	30.03	29.89			29.82(0.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-30	-10000	-13	-80	0.36	76%	0.07	16.3	0.32%	0	-0.6	47	0
4	Aug_17_2012	28.72	29.97	30.08	29.95			29.79(-0.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-18	-10000	-12	-34	0.35	72%	0.03	22.5	0.33%	0	-0.7	47	0
5	Aug_16_2012	28.71	29.97	30.12	30.01			29.8(-0.37%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.8	-10	-10000	-14	3	0.68	72%	0.07	32.5	0.33%	0	-0.6	54	0

6	Aug_15_2012	28.69	29.96	30.14	30.08			29.91(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	2	-10000	-14	49	0.57	68%	0.07	47	0.33%	0	-0.2	64	0
7	Aug_14_2012	28.67	29.95	30.16	30.15			30.12(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	19	-10000	-6	95	0.84	67%	0.07	62.7	0.35%	0	0.7	78	0
8	Aug_13_2012	28.65	29.93	30.14	30.18			30.15(0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	26	-10000	-7	125	0.72	67%	0.1	76.2	0.37%	0	0.9	80	0
9	Aug_10_2012	28.62	29.91	30.12	30.22			30.07(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	36	-10000	-4	157	0.81	67%	0.07	88.5	0.37%	0	0.6	73	0
10	Aug_9_2012	28.6	29.88	30.1	30.24			30.16(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	48	-10000	5	176	0.48	64%	0.07	91.5	0.37%	0	1	68	0

11	Aug_8_2012	28.58	29.84	30.06	30.21			30.24(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	47	-10000	7	168	0.47	64%	0.07	92.8	0.37%	0	1.4	70	0
12	Aug_7_2012	28.56	29.8	29.99	30.17			30.3(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	46	-10000	12	149	0.69	64%	0.07	90.1	0.37%	0	1.7	74	0
13	Aug_6_2012	28.54	29.74	29.91	30.1			30.34(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	42	-10000	15	123	0.95	64%	0.07	87.1	0.37%	0	2	76	0
14	Aug_3_2012	28.52	29.68	29.83	30.02			30.18(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	36	-10000	15	97	0.99	64%	0.07	87.8	0.37%	0	1.7	75	0
15	Aug_2_2012	28.5	29.62	29.78	29.94			30.01(0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	32	-10000	13	90	1.16	62%	0.07	88.8	0.36%	0	1.3	77	0

16	Aug_1_2012	28.48	29.58	29.75	29.87			30(0.13%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	35	-10000	17	87	1.46	62%	0.07	92.6	0.36%	0	1.5	78	0
17	Jul_31_2012	28.46	29.53	29.72	29.78			29.96(0.1%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	31	-10000	16	76	4.67	62%	0.04	92.6	0.37%	0	1.5	79	0
18	Jul_30_2012	28.45	29.48	29.7	29.69			29.93(0.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	29	-10000	13	77	4.2	63%	0.07	87.8	0.37%	0	1.6	82	0
19	Jul_27_2012	28.43	29.43	29.67	29.62			29.81(0.51%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	23	-10000	4	81	0.94	62%	0.04	84.3	0.37%	0	1.3	82	0
20	Jul_26_2012	28.42	29.37	29.63	29.6			29.66(0.47%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	21	-10000	-4	97	0.87	62%	0.07	75.9	0.36%	0	0.9	80	0

21	Jul_25_2012	28.4	29.32	29.61	29.62			29.52(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	25	-10000	-7	122	0.77	60%	0.04	74.8	0.36%	0	0.6	79	0
22	Jul_24_2012	28.39	29.27	29.59	29.66			29.52(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	33	-10000	-7	152	2.03	60%	0.04	70.7	0.36%	0	0.6	77	0
23	Jul_23_2012	28.38	29.23	29.56	29.7			29.59(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	44	-10000	-2	181	0.49	60%	0.07	71.4	0.36%	0	0.9	84	0
24	Jul_20_2012	28.36	29.18	29.52	29.71			29.72(-0.07%)	TP	CloseLong	-10	0	61	-10000	10	215	0.46	63%	0.04	72.2	0.35%	0	1.3	96	0
25	Jul_19_2012	28.35	29.12	29.46	29.66			29.74(0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	66	-10000	11	229	0.66	63%		71.5	0.35%	0	1.5	98	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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