Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. May. 9, 2008

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $26.0100 (0%) ($25.9500 - $26.0400) on Fri. May. 9, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.46% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $26.0100(0%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JNK(36%)    SPY(34%)    EWG(33%)    VWO(33%)    EEM(32%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.23% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(2%)    TLT(8%)    USO(13%)    GLD(13%)    TIP(21%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.23% (StdDev 0.46%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $25.99(0.08%)
10 Day Moving Average   $25.9(0.42%)
20 Day Moving Average   $25.87(0.54%)
To recent high   -0.5%
To recent low   2.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 0.54% (three month std-dev: 0.46%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_9_2008	25.82	25.87	25.9	25.99			26.01(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	14	-10000	3	46	0.02	41%	0	0	0.46%	0	1	60	0
2	May_8_2008	25.82	25.87	25.88	25.97			26.01(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	18	-10000	7	52	0.04	41%	0	3.7	0.46%	0	0.9	66	0
3	May_7_2008	25.82	25.88	25.86	25.93			26.05(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	11	-10000	3	36	0.16	41%	0	0	0.46%	0	1.2	54	0
4	May_6_2008	25.82	25.88	25.84	25.91			25.99(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	17	-10000	12	32	0.09	41%	0.04	-10	0.46%	0	0.9	51	0
5	May_5_2008	25.81	25.88	25.82	25.84			25.9(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	9	-10000	8	12	0.03	41%	0	-24	0.46%	0	0.2	50	0

6	May_2_2008	25.81	25.88	25.81	25.79			25.91(0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-2	-10000	3	-16	0.03	41%	0	-32	0.46%	0	0.3	45	0
7	May_1_2008	25.81	25.87	25.78	25.79			25.81(-0.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-12	-10000	0	-48	0.03	49%	0	-40	0.46%	0	-0.5	38	0
8	Apr_30_2008	25.81	25.87	25.79	25.77			25.94(1.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-10	-10000	3	-49	0.02	45%	0	-38.9	0.51%	0	0.4	46	0
9	Apr_29_2008	25.81	25.88	25.78	25.75			25.66(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-21	-10000	-8	-61	0.02	38%	0	-38.9	0.5%	0	-1.6	41	0
10	Apr_28_2008	25.81	25.9	25.81	25.8			25.63(-0.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-17	-10000	-5	-51	0.05	38%	0	-32	0.5%	0	-2.1	40	0

11	Apr_25_2008	25.81	25.91	25.84	25.83			25.81(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-6	-10000	7	-43	0.05	41%	0	-19.6	0.49%	0	-0.8	41	0
12	Apr_24_2008	25.81	25.92	25.88	25.79			25.81(-0.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-13	-10000	-2	-46	0.04	41%	0	-21.4	0.49%	0	-1	49	0
13	Apr_23_2008	25.81	25.93	25.9	25.8			25.86(-0.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-12	-10000	-3	-38	0.04	54%	0	-4.8	0.5%	0	-0.6	47	0
14	Apr_22_2008	25.81	25.93	25.9	25.8			25.89(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-9	-10000	0	-35	0.07	45%	0	16.7	0.57%	0	-0.5	44	0
15	Apr_21_2008	25.81	25.93	25.91	25.82			25.78(0.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-12	-10000	-5	-33	0.03	45%	0	28.3	0.63%	0	-1.3	47	0

16	Apr_18_2008	25.81	25.94	25.94	25.86			25.6(-1.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.4	-16	-10000	-13	-24	0.07	42%	0	42.9	0.63%	0	-3.1	40	0
17	Apr_17_2008	25.81	25.95	25.97	25.97			25.89(-0.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-4	-10000	-4	-2	0.03	46%	0	76.9	0.61%	0	-0.6	48	0
18	Apr_16_2008	25.81	25.94	25.98	26			25.93(0.19%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	0	-10000	-1	4	0.04	51%	0	71.7	0.61%	0	-0.1	48	0
19	Apr_15_2008	25.81	25.92	25.99	26.01			25.88(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	1	-10000	-1	8	0.02	51%	0.04	58.6	0.62%	0	-0.3	48	0
20	Apr_14_2008	25.8	25.9	26	26.02			26.02(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	3	-10000	-1	13	0.05	51%	0	53	0.62%	0	0.7	56	0

21	Apr_11_2008	25.8	25.89	25.99	26.03			26.15(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	12	-10000	7	25	0.05	51%	0.04	62.1	0.62%	0	1.5	67	0
22	Apr_10_2008	25.79	25.87	25.99	25.97			26.03(0.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	7	-10000	3	20	0.04	51%	0	61.3	0.62%	0	1	66	0
23	Apr_9_2008	25.79	25.85	25.99	25.95			25.95(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	4	-10000	-4	26	0.02	51%	0	59.7	0.62%	0	0.6	65	0
24	Apr_8_2008	25.79	25.83	25.97	25.98			25.95(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	13	-10000	1	49	0.08	51%	0	60.6	0.62%	0	0.7	69	0
25	Apr_7_2008	25.79	25.81	25.96	25.97			26.05(0.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	18	-10000	3	61	0.06	51%		51.4	0.62%	0	1.3	75	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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