Trading Signals: OSTK Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Nov. 1, 2004

Trading Signals: OSTK Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Nov. 3, 2023)

(Overstock.com Inc.)
OSTK latest price $55.2900 (4.6%) ($51.8600 - $57.0000) on Mon. Nov. 1, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.85% (three month average)
RSI   83
Latest Price   $55.2900(4.6%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   OSTK advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   OSTK advances 17.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support OSTK advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(20%)    EEM(19%)    QQQ(19%)    SPY(18%)    XLY(18%)
Factors Impacting OSTK price   OSTK will decline at least -1.925% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(-8%)    TLT(-7%)    TIP(-6%)    LQD(-1%)    REMX(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.925% (StdDev 3.85%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 6.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $54.21(1.99%)
10 Day Moving Average   $50.95(8.52%)
20 Day Moving Average   $45.22(22.27%)
To recent high   -1.3%
To recent low   103.1%
Market Cap   $2.23b

Overstock.com, Inc. operates online shopping commercial site. It also sells these products through www.overstock.com, www.o.com, and www.o.biz. It operates through the following business segments: Retail, tZERO, and MVI. The Retail Segment engages in e-commerce sales through its website. The tZERO Segment focuses on securities transaction through its broker-dealers. The MVI segment consists of the Medici business. The company was founded by Patrick Michael Byrne on May 5, 1997 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, UT.

$. OSTK price fluctuates within 14.68% (three month std-dev: 3.85%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -4.2%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -5.02%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0.77%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -8.31%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20041201

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_1_2004	35.72	45.22	50.95	54.21	54.33	53.91	55.29(4.6%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	69	-50	3	268	1.51	74%	0.56	75.7	3.85%	0	1.5	83	0
2	Oct_29_2004	35.52	44.37	49.47	53.42	53.87	54.52	52.86(-3.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	73	110	4	278	0.96	73%	0.54	79.7	3.82%	0	1.3	82	0
3	Oct_28_2004	35.33	43.6	48.19	53.13	53.34	54.75	54.7(-2.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	114	200	48	310	1.02	71%	0.6	82.8	3.79%	0	1.8	82	0
4	Oct_27_2004	35.12	42.63	46.74	51.33	52.17	53.22	56.04(7.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	120	190	64	287	2.41	71%	0.57	79.6	3.81%	0	2.3	79	0
5	Oct_26_2004	34.92	41.57	44.95	48.72	49.83	51.92	52.18(1.66%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	92	360	45	234	1.61	69%	0.49	78.3	3.73%	0	2.1	78	0

6	Oct_25_2004	34.75	40.7	43.49	47.18	47.7	51.13	51.33(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	123	540	90	221	2.93	69%	0.49	78.2	3.74%	0	2.4	77	0
7	Oct_22_2004	34.58	39.84	42.07	44.92	45.5	47.73	51.38(12.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.7	115	380	97	170	6.01	72%	0.52	76.5	3.77%	0	3	76	0
8	Oct_21_2004	34.4	39.02	40.71	42.56	42.77	44.27	45.72(6.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	55	260	39	104	1.89	65%	0.29	83	3.55%	0	2.3	72	0
9	Oct_20_2004	34.3	38.48	40.08	41.46	41.56	43.27	42.98(-3.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	59	300	46	98	1.03	65%	0.23	82.3	3.59%	0	1.7	73	0
10	Oct_19_2004	34.22	37.98	39.63	40.57	40.78	41.28	44.49(11.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.5	59	100	48	91	2.53	61%	0.32	77	3.6%	0	2.6	79	0

11	Oct_18_2004	34.11	37.45	38.99	39.24	39.72	39.84	40.01(1.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	18	60	5	57	0.77	57%	0.15	73.9	3.5%	0	1.1	73	0
12	Oct_15_2004	34.06	37.1	38.86	38.74	39.22	40.28	39.61(-1.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	30	230	17	67	0.65	58%	0.15	68.5	3.51%	0	1.1	74	0
13	Oct_14_2004	34.01	36.77	38.69	38.54	38.76	39.59	40.2(4.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	36	170	23	74	1.65	58%	0.21	71.2	3.53%	0	1.5	68	0
14	Oct_13_2004	33.94	36.41	38.26	38.5	38.45	38.17	38.55(1.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	17	-50	0	69	0.79	55%	0.15	79.1	3.5%	0	0.9	66	0
15	Oct_12_2004	33.89	36.13	38	38.54	38.76	37.92	37.83(0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	7	-130	-16	77	0.75	53%	0.18	83.4	3.52%	0	0.7	73	0

16	Oct_11_2004	33.83	35.86	37.77	38.69	38.98	38.74	37.52(-2.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	9	-20	-17	87	0.85	53%	0.24	83.6	3.56%	0	0.7	63	0
17	Oct_8_2004	33.75	35.57	37.53	38.95	39.11	39.61	38.61(-3.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	36	100	9	117	0.72	53%	0.27	83.2	3.54%	0	1.1	72	0
18	Oct_7_2004	33.66	35.16	37.27	38.81	38.9	39.23	39.99(3.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	55	70	27	139	1.51	53%	0.27	76.3	3.52%	0	1.7	76	0
19	Oct_6_2004	33.57	34.66	36.79	37.99	38.14	38.62	38.77(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	44	100	16	126	0.27	53%	0.24	68.2	3.51%	0	1.5	74	0
20	Oct_5_2004	33.49	34.24	36.22	37.37	37.41	38.57	38.56(-0.62%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	52	220	30	119	0.38	53%	0.24	64.7	3.51%	0	1.7	74	0

21	Oct_4_2004	33.41	33.87	35.79	36.72	36.64	37.66	38.8(2.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	59	190	40	116	0.5	53%	0.21	63.3	3.53%	0	2	76	0
22	Oct_1_2004	33.34	33.45	35.17	35.92	35.81	36.25	37.94(5.8%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	39	80	20	95	0.63	53%	0.18	56.8	3.52%	0	2	77	0
23	Sep_30_2004	33.28	33.13	34.66	35.52	35.34	35.61	35.86(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	27	40	4	94	0.38	51%	0.15	60.4	3.47%	0	1.4	77	0
24	Sep_29_2004	33.23	32.91	34.38	35.43	35.49	35.37	35.67(0.96%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	41	-20	16	114	0.36	51%	0.09	62.5	3.48%	0	1.5	78	0
25	Sep_28_2004	33.2	32.65	34.09	34.89	35.23	35.06	35.33(1.49%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	26	-0	-1	106	0.57	51%		57.1	3.48%	0	1.5	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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