Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jun. 10, 2014

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $80.0400 (1.59%) ($79.5800 - $80.0400) on Tue. Jun. 10, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.9% (three month average)
RSI   62
Latest Price   $80.0400(1.59%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS declines -0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLV(59%)    VT(56%)    SPY(55%)    EWG(52%)    EWP(50%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.45% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-23%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-12%)    TIP(1%)    SHY(1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.45% (StdDev 0.9%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $78.83(1.53%)
10 Day Moving Average   $79.01(1.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $79.12(1.16%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   11.6%
Market Cap   $183.21b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 0.7% (three month std-dev: 0.9%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140710

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_10_2014	74.56	79.12	79.01	78.83			80.04(1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.2	1	-10000	8	-21	2.38	54%	0.08	32.9	0.9%	0	1.7	62	0
2	Jun_9_2014	74.5	79.03	78.97	78.54			78.79(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-8	-10000	1	-34	1.34	51%	0.09	25	0.88%	0	-0.4	46	0
3	Jun_6_2014	74.43	79.01	79.06	78.5			78.7(0.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-13	-10000	-5	-36	1.21	51%	0.08	30.6	0.89%	0	-0.5	42	0
4	Jun_5_2014	74.37	78.97	79.14	78.68			78.43(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-12	-10000	-7	-28	1.33	51%	0.11	41.3	0.9%	0	-0.9	38	0
5	Jun_4_2014	74.29	78.96	79.22	78.94			78.2(-0.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-9	-10000	-7	-15	2.94	54%	0.09	61	0.9%	0	-1.2	45	0

6	Jun_3_2014	74.22	78.94	79.29	79.2			78.58(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-5	-10000	-7	1	1.91	49%	0.09	74.2	0.91%	0	-0.5	57	0
7	Jun_2_2014	74.15	78.89	79.36	79.45			78.58(-1.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	0	-10000	-6	18	2.08	49%	0.09	91.7	0.96%	0	-0.4	55	0
8	May_30_2014	74.08	78.84	79.46	79.68			79.63(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	10	-10000	0	41	4.63	52%	0.12	106.7	0.95%	0	1	69	0
9	May_29_2014	73.99	78.71	79.44	79.67			79.72(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	16	-10000	3	55	0.61	52%	0.12	109.6	0.96%	0	1.1	74	0
10	May_28_2014	73.9	78.57	79.36	79.55			79.48(-0.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	-10000	4	57	2.33	52%	0.14	105	0.97%	0	1	66	0

11	May_27_2014	73.8	78.42	79.25	79.4			79.82(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	16	-10000	3	56	2.66	50%	0.19	93.8	0.97%	0	1.4	74	0
12	May_23_2014	73.66	78.21	79.1	79.27			79.76(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	16	-10000	2	56	2.56	52%	0.14	69.6	0.97%	0	1.2	73	0
13	May_22_2014	73.56	77.97	78.94	79.21			79.56(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	15	-10000	0	61	4.68	52%	0.08	63.2	0.97%	0	1.1	74	0
14	May_21_2014	73.5	77.73	78.77	79.2			79.12(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	18	-10000	1	68	1.61	52%	0.12	66.3	0.98%	0	1	74	0
15	May_20_2014	73.41	77.59	78.66	79.16			78.76(-0.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	22	-10000	3	77	1.72	52%	0.1	74.2	0.98%	0	0.8	73	0

16	May_19_2014	73.34	77.47	78.55	79.05			79.15(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	24	-10000	4	82	2.13	50%	0.12	79.1	0.98%	0	1.2	81	0
17	May_16_2014	73.25	77.29	78.39	78.89			79.47(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	29	-10000	7	93	3.02	50%	0.14	86.6	0.98%	0	1.6	89	0
18	May_15_2014	73.15	77.06	78.17	78.63			79.51(0.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	32	-10000	9	102	5.18	50%	0.08	85.4	0.99%	0	1.8	91	0
19	May_14_2014	73.09	76.81	77.91	78.27			78.9(0.87%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	29	-10000	4	102	2.66	50%	0.14	82.7	1%	0	1.6	88	0
20	May_13_2014	72.99	76.58	77.7	78.11			78.22(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	29	-10000	4	103	1.49	50%	0.12	79.5	0.99%	0	1.2	65	0

21	May_12_2014	72.9	76.37	77.53	77.97			78.35(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	-10000	4	98	2.97	52%	0.14	79.1	0.99%	0	1.4	62	0
22	May_9_2014	72.8	76.11	77.25	77.82			78.17(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	-10000	5	94	3.04	52%	0.12	73.1	0.99%	0	1.4	67	0
23	May_8_2014	72.71	75.91	76.91	77.63			77.73(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	24	-10000	4	85	2.64	52%	0.12	72.6	1%	0	1.3	69	0
24	May_7_2014	72.62	75.73	76.63	77.47			78.08(0.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	25	-10000	6	82	1.73	55%	0.15	70.8	1%	0	1.7	73	0
25	May_6_2014	72.51	75.51	76.43	77.23			77.51(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	-10000	6	86	2.61	57%		66.7	1.03%	0	1.5	74	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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