Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 8, 2012

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $47.8600 (1.23%) ($47.5000 - $48.0000) on Thu. Mar. 8, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.35% (three month average)
RSI   34
Latest Price   $47.8600(1.23%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS declines -0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS declines -2.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(55%)    EWG(52%)    XLP(49%)    EWI(48%)    EWP(48%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.675% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-13%)    TIP(1%)    SHY(1%)    IGOV(4%)    GLD(6%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.675% (StdDev 1.35%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $43.31(-9.51%)
Resistance Level   $49.13
5 Day Moving Average   $47.62(0.5%)
10 Day Moving Average   $48.24(-0.79%)
20 Day Moving Average   $49.13(-2.58%)
To recent high   -7.2%
To recent low   1.5%
Market Cap   $109.551b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 2.4% (three month std-dev: 1.35%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120408

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_8_2012	49.25	49.13	48.24	47.62			47.86(1.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-34	-10000	-3	-127	2.22	45%	-0.04	-44.2	1.35%	0	-1.1	34	0
2	Mar_7_2012	49.27	49.22	48.53	47.7			47.28(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-33	-10000	-6	-115	2.66	45%	-0.08	-41.8	1.35%	0	-1.7	34	0
3	Mar_6_2012	49.31	49.37	48.85	47.89			47.13(-2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-34	-10000	-10	-104	3.67	45%	-0.08	-32.9	1.35%	0	-2.1	32	0
4	Mar_5_2012	49.35	49.5	49.2	48.23			48.09(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-24	-10000	-4	-83	2.44	49%	-0.08	-20.1	1.33%	0	-1.5	35	0
5	Mar_2_2012	49.39	49.57	49.4	48.35			47.76(-1.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-34	-10000	-19	-80	2.54	46%	-0.08	-11.6	1.33%	0	-2.1	39	0

6	Mar_1_2012	49.43	49.66	49.64	48.97			48.25(0.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-24	-10000	-16	-46	1.91	46%	-0.06	13.9	1.35%	0	-1.9	39	0
7	Feb_29_2012	49.46	49.7	49.8	49.51			48.2(-1.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-15	-10000	-13	-19	3.24	50%	-0.06	38.3	1.38%	0	-2.1	41	0
8	Feb_28_2012	49.49	49.71	49.98	49.97			48.86(0.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.5	-7	-10000	-10	3	3.36	55%	-0.04	46.9	1.36%	0	-1.2	41	0
9	Feb_27_2012	49.51	49.68	50.1	50.3			48.67(-4.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.1	-0	-10000	-8	23	3.37	55%	-0.02	48.4	1.4%	0	-1.3	45	0
10	Feb_24_2012	49.52	49.67	50.2	50.57			50.85(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-10000	5	46	4.96	59%	0.02	52.1	1.31%	0	1.4	68	0

11	Feb_23_2012	49.51	49.55	50.09	50.41			50.96(0.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	17	-10000	8	44	3.28	55%	0.06	30.9	1.32%	0	1.7	70	0
12	Feb_22_2012	49.48	49.44	49.96	50.14			50.49(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	12	-10000	4	35	3.42	55%	0.02	11.7	1.34%	0	1.4	69	0
13	Feb_21_2012	49.47	49.38	49.9	50.01			50.54(1.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	14	-10000	3	45	6.62	55%	0.06	4.9	1.34%	0	1.6	77	0
14	Feb_17_2012	49.44	49.31	49.8	49.9			50.03(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	-10000	4	53	7.58	55%	0	0	1.34%	0	1.1	75	0
15	Feb_16_2012	49.44	49.24	49.73	49.77			50.05(0.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-10000	1	57	7.46	55%	0	-12.3	1.34%	0	1	73	0

16	Feb_15_2012	49.44	49.3	49.65	49.73			49.61(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	16	-10000	-0	62	4.72	55%	0.02	-4.7	1.34%	0	0.4	64	0
17	Feb_14_2012	49.43	49.35	49.59	49.74			49.8(-0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	16	-10000	-1	65	3.18	55%	0.02	-1.7	1.34%	0	0.5	60	0
18	Feb_13_2012	49.42	49.34	49.43	49.78			49.99(1.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	-10000	2	59	2.16	55%	0.06	-4	1.34%	0	0.7	54	0
19	Feb_10_2012	49.39	49.3	49.24	49.7			49.42(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	12	-10000	1	44	2.34	58%	0.04	-13.8	1.35%	0	0.1	51	0
20	Feb_9_2012	49.37	49.3	49.11	49.67			49.82(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	13	-10000	4	40	2.29	53%	0.02	-17.6	1.35%	0	0.6	61	0

21	Feb_8_2012	49.36	49.34	48.97	49.55			49.65(-0.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	5	-10000	4	8	2.53	53%	0.02	-28.1	1.4%	0	0.4	35	0
22	Feb_7_2012	49.35	49.36	48.88	49.41			50.04(0.95%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	6	-10000	12	-11	3.01	53%	0.02	-37.4	1.4%	0	0.8	44	0
23	Feb_6_2012	49.34	49.37	48.8	49.01			49.57(0.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-2	-10000	9	-35	4.34	53%	0	-49.5	1.39%	0	0.2	49	0
24	Feb_3_2012	49.34	49.42	48.75	48.7			49.27(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-8	-10000	7	-52	2.93	56%	-0.02	-55.2	1.4%	0	-0.2	50	0
25	Feb_2_2012	49.35	49.49	48.69	48.47			49.21(0.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-16	-10000	4	-75	3.22	56%		-56.9	1.43%	0	-0.3	45	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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