Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 15, 2011

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $49.4000 (1.19%) ($49.0200 - $49.5600) on Mon. Aug. 15, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.57% (three month average)
RSI   29
Latest Price   $49.4000(1.19%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS declines -5.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(57%)    EWG(55%)    EWI(51%)    XLP(51%)    EWP(50%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.785% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-17%)    TIP(-2%)    SHY(0%)    GLD(5%)    IGOV(8%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.785% (StdDev 1.57%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $40.19(-18.64%)
Resistance Level   $52.27
5 Day Moving Average   $49.08(0.65%)
10 Day Moving Average   $49.95(-1.1%)
20 Day Moving Average   $52.27(-5.49%)
To recent high   -13.4%
To recent low   2.8%
Market Cap   $113.076b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 5.07% (three month std-dev: 1.57%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110915

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_15_2011	52.63	52.27	49.95	49.08			49.4(1.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-43	-10000	7	-192	2.05	31%	0.02	-50.3	1.57%	0	-1.1	29	0
2	Aug_12_2011	52.62	52.5	50.39	48.81			48.82(1.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-63	-10000	-10	-222	4.92	33%	-0.02	-56	1.56%	0	-1.4	27	0
3	Aug_11_2011	52.63	52.79	50.9	49.19			48.29(0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-63	-10000	-13	-213	7.36	33%	0.02	-56.3	1.57%	0	-1.8	29	0
4	Aug_10_2011	52.62	53.11	51.5	49.68			48.21(-4.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-70	-10000	-24	-206	6.2	33%	0	-57.4	1.57%	0	-2.2	27	0
5	Aug_9_2011	52.62	53.45	52.17	50.63			50.67(5.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-53	-10000	-10	-182	8.27	38%	0.04	-54	1.46%	0	-1.4	32	0

6	Aug_8_2011	52.6	53.64	52.64	50.99			48.05(-5.25%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.6	-77	-10000	-36	-198	5.49	27%	0.02	-52.8	1.29%	0	-3.1	17	0
7	Aug_5_2011	52.59	53.98	53.41	52.2			50.71(-0.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-54	-10000	-23	-145	6.97	31%	0.06	-48.1	1.12%	0	-2.5	36	0
8	Aug_4_2011	52.56	54.21	53.83	52.88			50.75(-4.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-44	-10000	-23	-107	4.42	34%	0.08	-38.1	1.13%	0	-3.2	33	0
9	Aug_3_2011	52.52	54.42	54.3	53.58			52.95(0.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-27	-10000	-14	-64	5.28	40%	0.11	-22.7	1.02%	0	-2	43	0
10	Aug_2_2011	52.46	54.51	54.54	53.95			52.48(-2.98%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.3	-27	-10000	-22	-40	5.62	40%	0.08	0	1.01%	0	-3.2	38	0

11	Aug_1_2011	52.42	54.61	54.81	54.56			54.09(-0.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-5	-10000	-10	10	2.43	45%	0.11	52.3	0.94%	0	-1.1	51	0
12	Jul_29_2011	52.36	54.61	54.8	54.82			54.11(-0.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.5	3	-10000	-4	24	2.82	45%	0.11	84.9	0.95%	0	-1.1	49	0
13	Jul_28_2011	52.3	54.62	54.8	54.93			54.29(-0.86%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.4	1	-10000	-7	25	2.77	45%	0.11	103.5	0.95%	0	-0.7	45	0
14	Jul_27_2011	52.24	54.59	54.84	55.12			54.76(-1.4%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	6	-10000	-4	35	1.99	45%	0.11	103.1	0.95%	0	0.3	51	0
15	Jul_26_2011	52.18	54.51	54.82	55.22			55.54(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	16	-10000	5	47	1.75	50%	0.12	87.1	0.93%	0	1.6	59	0

16	Jul_25_2011	52.12	54.37	54.69	55.1			55.41(1.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	20	-10000	13	41	2.18	50%	0.1	71.7	0.94%	0	1.5	59	0
17	Jul_22_2011	52.07	54.22	54.58	54.77			54.66(-1.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	6	-10000	2	19	2.18	47%	0.08	48.6	0.93%	0	0.6	57	0
18	Jul_21_2011	52.03	54.14	54.6	54.72			55.24(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	13	-10000	8	29	2.43	47%	0.08	41.2	0.92%	0	1.4	63	0
19	Jul_20_2011	51.99	54.05	54.53	54.52			55.23(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	11	-10000	6	27	2.37	53%	0.1	35.2	0.94%	0	1.5	68	0
20	Jul_19_2011	51.94	53.96	54.45	54.38			54.97(2.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	13	-10000	6	32	3.25	59%	0.12	27.1	1.01%	0	1.4	70	0

21	Jul_18_2011	51.88	53.88	54.38	54.23			53.77(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	5	-10000	-4	33	2.45	50%	0.1	18.3	1.07%	0	-0.2	66	0
22	Jul_15_2011	51.83	53.86	54.42	54.34			54.41(0.31%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	10	-10000	-4	53	1.81	52%	0.12	21.1	1.14%	0	0.8	77	0
23	Jul_14_2011	51.77	53.81	54.39	54.45			54.24(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	15	-10000	-3	70	2.07	52%	0.06	19	1.14%	0	0.6	67	0
24	Jul_13_2011	51.74	53.78	54.32	54.53			54.51(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	20	-10000	0	78	2.44	52%	0.1	11.1	1.14%	0	1.1	62	0
25	Jul_12_2011	51.69	53.77	54.18	54.52			54.21(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	18	-10000	-1	74	2.96	52%		3.2	1.14%	0	0.7	56	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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