Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jan. 14, 2008

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $50.3400 (-1.78%) ($50.2200 - $51.3500) on Mon. Jan. 14, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.33% (three month average)
RSI   69
Latest Price   $50.3400(-1.78%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 3.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWG(56%)    SPY(56%)    EWI(52%)    EWP(52%)    XLP(52%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.665% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-18%)    SHY(-6%)    TIP(-1%)    GLD(8%)    LQD(14%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.665% (StdDev 1.33%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2%

5 Day Moving Average   $51.18(-1.64%)
10 Day Moving Average   $49.89(0.9%)
20 Day Moving Average   $48.99(2.76%)
To recent high   -3.6%
To recent low   10.3%
Market Cap   $115.227b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 2.92% (three month std-dev: 1.33%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_14_2008	48.01	48.99	49.89	51.18			50.34(-1.78%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	44	-10000	8	153	2.9	54%	0.08	24	1.33%	0	0.9	69	0
2	Jan_11_2008	47.97	48.94	49.71	50.9			51.25(-1.84%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	51	-10000	17	153	2.35	57%	0.1	17.6	1.31%	0	1.7	76	0
3	Jan_10_2008	47.92	48.85	49.4	50.33			52.21(0.93%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.5	50	-10000	22	134	3.96	60%	0.13	4.5	1.29%	0	2.6	87	0
4	Jan_9_2008	47.86	48.72	48.95	49.61			51.73(2.7%)	UT	HoldLong	65	2.1	42	-10000	22	101	3.89	60%	0.13	-14.2	1.28%	0	2.9	86	0
5	Jan_8_2008	47.8	48.64	48.55	48.92			50.37(2.94%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.8	28	-10000	16	65	3.98	57%	0.08	-36.5	1.24%	0	2.1	78	0

6	Jan_7_2008	47.76	48.65	48.28	48.45			48.93(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	9	-10000	3	28	2.14	52%	0.04	-44.8	1.19%	0	0.3	52	0
7	Jan_4_2008	47.74	48.7	48.18	48.36			48.43(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	3	-10000	2	6	2.38	52%	0.06	-44.4	1.19%	0	-0.3	32	0
8	Jan_3_2008	47.71	48.79	48.1	48.3			48.61(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-1	-10000	4	-16	1.12	52%	0.04	-43.8	1.19%	0	-0.2	33	0
9	Jan_2_2008	47.69	48.86	48.01	48.18			48.25(0.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-10	-10000	2	-46	1.53	52%	0.04	-44.5	1.19%	0	-0.5	25	0
10	Dec_31_2007	47.67	48.94	47.97	48.12			48.02(-0.95%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-19	-10000	1	-79	0.96	52%	0	-41.2	1.19%	0	-0.8	17	0

11	Dec_28_2007	47.67	49.04	48.02	48.09			48.48(0.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-23	-10000	4	-102	1.19	52%	0	-41.3	1.18%	0	-0.5	20	0
12	Dec_27_2007	47.67	49.15	48.13	47.97			48.13(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-27	-10000	3	-116	1.14	52%	-0.02	-26.7	1.18%	0	-0.9	27	0
13	Dec_26_2007	47.68	49.26	48.27	47.88			48.01(0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-31	-10000	2	-129	0.93	52%	-0.04	-13.9	1.18%	0	-1.1	24	0
14	Dec_24_2007	47.7	49.36	48.46	47.82			47.97(0.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-34	-10000	1	-137	0.48	52%	0.02	0	1.17%	0	-1.2	26	0
15	Dec_21_2007	47.69	49.42	48.74	47.8			47.84(-0.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-37	-10000	-5	-134	1.99	51%	0	8.3	1.17%	0	-1.5	30	0

16	Dec_20_2007	47.69	49.51	49.02	47.95			47.89(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-41	-10000	-13	-123	2.65	51%	0.02	25.5	1.18%	0	-1.6	30	0
17	Dec_19_2007	47.68	49.46	49.26	48.32			47.7(-0.02%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-38	-10000	-14	-109	2.98	51%	0	29.9	1.18%	0	-1.5	23	0
18	Dec_18_2007	47.68	49.42	49.53	48.73			47.71(-0.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-34	-10000	-16	-88	1.47	52%	0	34.9	1.18%	0	-1.3	30	0
19	Dec_17_2007	47.68	49.37	49.8	49.2			47.86(-1.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-31	-10000	-20	-63	1.53	52%	0.02	42.3	1.19%	0	-1	33	0
20	Dec_14_2007	47.67	49.33	50.03	49.8			48.61(-2.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-16	-10000	-15	-19	3.36	55%	0.02	54.1	1.18%	0	-0.5	52	0

21	Dec_13_2007	47.66	49.25	50.18	50.24			49.73(0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	2	-10000	-3	15	2.91	60%	0.04	59.4	1.15%	0	0.3	54	0
22	Dec_12_2007	47.64	49.11	50.28	50.33			49.72(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	12	-10000	-5	62	2.62	60%	0.02	59.4	1.15%	0	0.4	72	0
23	Dec_11_2007	47.63	48.96	50.34	50.46			50.08(-1.55%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	27	-10000	-1	111	3.03	62%	0.04	59	1.15%	0	0.6	75	0
24	Dec_10_2007	47.61	48.75	50.35	50.48			50.87(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	45	-10000	7	159	1.43	65%	0.04	54.6	1.14%	0	1.1	81	0
25	Dec_7_2007	47.59	48.51	50.16	50.29			50.81(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	48	-10000	6	172	1.47	65%		51	1.14%	0	1.2	74	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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