Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Mar. 16, 2007

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $50.4900 (1.32%) ($50.2400 - $50.8000) on Fri. Mar. 16, 2007.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.13% (three month average)
RSI   48
Latest Price   $50.4900(1.32%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWG(56%)    SPY(56%)    EWI(52%)    EWP(52%)    XLP(51%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.565% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-17%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(-2%)    GLD(9%)    LQD(13%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.565% (StdDev 1.13%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $49.97(1.04%)
10 Day Moving Average   $49.84(1.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $50.1(0.78%)
To recent high   -4.3%
To recent low   4.5%
Market Cap   $115.571b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 2.26% (three month std-dev: 1.13%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20070416

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_16_2007	51.45	50.1	49.84	49.97			50.49(1.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	16	-10000	5	47	1.46	53%	-0.06	-43.8	1.13%	0	0.3	48	0
2	Mar_15_2007	51.48	50.2	49.65	49.82			49.83(-0.26%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-0	-10000	-2	5	2.26	51%	-0.08	-39.5	1.13%	0	-0.3	35	0
3	Mar_14_2007	51.52	50.33	49.55	49.82			49.96(0.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-4	-10000	0	-15	1.36	52%	-0.08	-34.8	1.13%	0	-0.3	42	0
4	Mar_13_2007	51.56	50.42	49.45	49.88			49.6(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-14	-10000	-5	-41	1.79	52%	-0.08	-35.9	1.13%	0	-0.6	38	0
5	Mar_12_2007	51.6	50.52	49.39	50.01			49.96(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-5	-10000	12	-55	0.8	52%	-0.08	-33.2	1.13%	0	-0.4	37	0

6	Mar_9_2007	51.64	50.6	49.42	49.68			49.75(-0.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-17	-10000	9	-96	1.5	52%	-0.06	-40.1	1.12%	0	-0.6	33	0
7	Mar_8_2007	51.67	50.7	49.6	49.44			50.13(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-22	-10000	10	-119	1.49	52%	-0.04	-44.6	1.13%	0	-0.4	33	0
8	Mar_7_2007	51.69	50.81	49.69	49.16			49.97(-0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-33	-10000	7	-152	2.06	52%	0	-45.9	1.13%	0	-0.6	33	0
9	Mar_6_2007	51.69	50.92	49.81	48.97			50.26(4.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-35	-10000	10	-169	5.91	52%	-0.02	-45.3	1.13%	0	-0.5	41	0
10	Mar_5_2007	51.7	50.99	49.95	48.7			48.3(-0.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-69	-10000	-18	-220	2	46%	-0.04	-49.3	1%	0	-1.9	29	0

11	Mar_2_2007	51.72	51.18	50.36	49.14			48.55(-0.35%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-69	-10000	-27	-193	1.96	46%	-0.06	-42.6	0.99%	0	-2	30	0
12	Mar_1_2007	51.75	51.35	50.78	49.8			48.72(-0.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-49	-10000	-19	-140	2.99	44%	-0.04	-32.3	1%	0	-2.3	29	0
13	Feb_28_2007	51.77	51.48	51.18	50.29			49.01(0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-41	-10000	-19	-106	4.05	44%	-0.06	-27.1	1%	0	-2.5	28	0
14	Feb_27_2007	51.8	51.59	51.49	50.78			48.91(-3.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.3	-37	-10000	-22	-80	7.22	44%	-0.04	-19.9	1.03%	0	-3.2	27	0
15	Feb_26_2007	51.82	51.71	51.79	51.37			50.5(-2.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-22	-10000	-15	-44	10.72	48%	-0.02	1.8	0.96%	0	-2.1	43	0

16	Feb_23_2007	51.83	51.74	51.79	51.75			51.86(1.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-11	-10000	-8	-19	2.08	52%	0	14.2	0.9%	0	0.2	51	0
17	Feb_22_2007	51.83	51.72	51.92	51.93			51.18(-0.49%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-12	-10000	-13	-7	2.51	50%	0	25.5	0.89%	0	-1	46	0
18	Feb_21_2007	51.83	51.72	52.03	52.22			51.43(-0.89%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.5	5	-10000	-4	33	3.75	50%	-0.02	33.3	0.89%	0	-0.6	57	0
19	Feb_20_2007	51.84	51.75	52.12	52.31			51.89(-0.94%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.8	17	-10000	3	60	2.09	52%	0.02	32.4	0.88%	0	0.3	64	0
20	Feb_16_2007	51.83	51.7	52.1	52.25			52.38(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	22	-10000	7	68	5.2	54%	0	22.2	0.87%	0	1.2	69	0

21	Feb_15_2007	51.83	51.66	52.04	52.1			52.78(0.3%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.3	24	-10000	8	70	1.46	54%	0.02	20	0.86%	0	2.1	76	0
22	Feb_14_2007	51.82	51.59	51.93	51.92			52.62(1.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	17	-10000	3	57	1.67	52%	0.02	12.6	0.87%	0	1.9	62	0
23	Feb_13_2007	51.81	51.59	51.77	51.85			51.87(0.48%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	8	-10000	-4	44	2.14	46%	0.02	26.3	0.85%	0	0.6	53	0
24	Feb_12_2007	51.8	51.58	51.68	51.85			51.62(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	11	-10000	0	44	1.55	46%	0	36.1	0.88%	0	0.1	53	0
25	Feb_9_2007	51.8	51.57	51.62	51.93			51.63(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	11	-10000	-1	48	0.78	43%		27.8	0.88%	0	0.1	62	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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