Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Jun. 30, 2006

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $47.6700 (0.95%) ($47.1400 - $47.9400) on Fri. Jun. 30, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.06% (three month average)
RSI   54
Latest Price   $47.6700(0.95%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWG(56%)    SPY(56%)    EWI(52%)    EWP(52%)    XLP(51%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.53% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-17%)    SHY(-7%)    XOP(-6%)    TIP(-2%)    REMX(-0%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.53% (StdDev 1.06%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $46.73(2.01%)
10 Day Moving Average   $46.5(2.52%)
20 Day Moving Average   $46.88(1.69%)
To recent high   -7.4%
To recent low   3.9%
Market Cap   $109.116b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 2.5% (three month std-dev: 1.06%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060730

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_30_2006	48.9	46.88	46.5	46.73			47.67(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	15	-10000	9	31	0.88	44%	0	-51.2	1.06%	0	0.7	54	0
2	Jun_29_2006	48.9	46.97	46.35	46.5			47.22(2.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	7	-10000	8	2	1.19	44%	-0.04	-53.8	1.08%	0	0.2	45	0
3	Jun_28_2006	48.92	47.06	46.26	46.3			45.99(-0.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-11	-10000	-3	-33	0.77	39%	-0.04	-56.5	1.02%	0	-0.8	30	0
4	Jun_27_2006	48.94	47.21	46.28	46.3			46.03(-1.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-14	-10000	0	-54	2.09	39%	-0.04	-57.8	1.02%	0	-0.9	26	0
5	Jun_26_2006	48.96	47.36	46.27	46.38			46.74(0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-16	-10000	7	-85	0.83	41%	-0.06	-61.6	1.01%	0	-0.5	28	0

6	Jun_23_2006	48.99	47.49	46.28	46.22			46.53(0.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-30	-10000	2	-127	1.25	39%	-0.04	-61.7	1.01%	0	-0.7	21	0
7	Jun_22_2006	49.01	47.66	46.36	46.18			46.23(-0.32%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	0	-41	-10000	-1	-159	0.93	41%	-0.06	-61.4	1.02%	0	-1	16	0
8	Jun_21_2006	49.04	47.81	46.51	46.21			46.38(0.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-41	-10000	2	-171	1.24	40%	-0.06	-63.2	1.03%	0	-1	26	0
9	Jun_20_2006	49.07	47.99	46.7	46.17			46.01(0.09%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-45	-10000	1	-183	0.72	40%	-0.04	-66.8	1.03%	0	-1.3	25	0
10	Jun_19_2006	49.09	48.19	46.96	46.14			45.97(-0.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-54	-10000	-8	-192	2.09	40%	-0.06	-68.6	1.04%	0	-1.5	25	0

11	Jun_16_2006	49.12	48.37	47.3	46.34			46.29(-0.26%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0	-53	-10000	-10	-183	1.55	42%	-0.06	-73.7	1.05%	0	-1.5	23	0
12	Jun_15_2006	49.15	48.57	47.64	46.58			46.41(0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-52	-10000	-12	-172	1.46	42%	-0.06	-71.4	1.05%	0	-1.6	22	0
13	Jun_14_2006	49.18	48.76	47.92	46.87			46.15(0.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-55	-10000	-19	-163	1.68	42%	-0.08	-71.5	1.04%	0	-2.1	27	0
14	Jun_13_2006	49.22	49.01	48.22	47.33			45.89(-2.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.2	-54	-10000	-23	-146	3.1	44%	-0.06	-64.5	1.04%	0	-2.6	22	0
15	Jun_12_2006	49.25	49.22	48.56	47.9			46.94(-1.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-46	-10000	-20	-123	1.26	47%	-0.04	-69.7	1.02%	0	-2.4	26	0

16	Jun_9_2006	49.27	49.41	48.83	48.39			47.51(-0.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-37	-10000	-19	-90	1.15	51%	-0.02	-64.1	1.03%	0	-2.3	35	0
17	Jun_8_2006	49.28	49.55	49.08	48.86			47.84(-1.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-23	-10000	-11	-60	1.63	53%	-0.04	-58.5	1.03%	0	-2.3	32	0
18	Jun_7_2006	49.3	49.68	49.25	49.13			48.49(-0.43%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-16	-10000	-5	-47	1.85	55%	-0.02	-54.3	1.05%	0	-1.9	38	0
19	Jun_6_2006	49.31	49.79	49.4	49.25			48.7(-1.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-14	-10000	-2	-50	1.03	55%	0	-54.5	1.06%	0	-1.8	32	0
20	Jun_5_2006	49.31	49.89	49.52	49.3			49.42(-0.9%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-12	-10000	-1	-46	1	58%	0.02	-63.4	1.04%	0	-0.8	48	0

21	Jun_2_2006	49.3	49.95	49.53	49.33			49.87(1.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.9	-15	-10000	-1	-58	0.91	59%	0.04	-63.2	1.04%	0	-0.1	44	0
22	Jun_1_2006	49.28	49.98	49.55	49.35			49.19(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-16	-10000	-2	-57	1.55	58%	0.02	-61.2	1.04%	0	-1.4	44	0
23	May_31_2006	49.27	50.03	49.64	49.39			49.05(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-21	-10000	-7	-62	0.93	56%	0.04	-59.3	1.05%	0	-1.8	42	0
24	May_30_2006	49.25	50.13	49.83	49.57			48.99(-1.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-17	-10000	-7	-47	1.22	58%	0.02	-41.5	1.05%	0	-2.2	40	0
25	May_26_2006	49.24	50.25	49.92	49.76			49.57(-0.76%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-9	-10000	1	-40	1.56	56%		-25.2	1.11%	0	-1.3	43	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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