Trading Signals: NUGT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Aug. 9, 2012

Trading Signals: NUGT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Dec. 8, 2010 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF)
NUGT latest price $20900.0000 (3.88%) ($19840.0000 - $21200.0000) on Thu. Aug. 9, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.25% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $20900.0000(3.88%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NUGT advances 3.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NUGT advances 7.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NUGT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
GLD(75%)    LQD(26%)    EEM(25%)    PCY(25%)    TIP(24%)
Factors Impacting NUGT price   NUGT will decline at least -3.125% in a week (0% probabilities).
PEJ(8%)    XLY(10%)    XLK(11%)    XAR(11%)    SHY(12%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.125% (StdDev 6.25%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $19980(4.6%)
10 Day Moving Average   $19364.18(7.93%)
20 Day Moving Average   $18433.18(13.38%)
To recent high   -22.4%
To recent low   32.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.04%

$. NUGT is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.04% a day on average for holding it.$. NUGT price fluctuates within 7.09% (three month std-dev: 6.25%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120909

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_9_2012	23229.35	18433.18	19364.18	19980			20900(3.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	28	-10000	11	77	0	57%	-0.54	19.2	6.25%	0	1.9	65	0
2	Aug_8_2012	23356.08	18255.79	19136.79	19332			20120(-2.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	-10000	7	65	0	54%	-0.59	-15.8	6.27%	0	1.6	64	0
3	Aug_7_2012	23493.84	18132.61	18893.01	18892			20560(4.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	19	-10000	6	56	0	54%	-0.54	-52.5	6.39%	0	2.2	68	0
4	Aug_6_2012	23621.39	18034.63	18466.55	18540			19760(6.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	10	-10000	-0	39	0	54%	-0.6	-69.6	6.38%	0	1.5	61	0
5	Aug_3_2012	23764.25	18068.13	18120.26	18564			18560(5.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	7	-10000	-2	32	0	50%	-0.67	-65.1	6.33%	0	0.4	53	0

6	Aug_2_2012	23923.84	18185.36	18008.88	18676			17660(-1.45%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	5	-10000	-4	30	0	48%	-0.7	-45.5	6.45%	0	-0.3	48	0
7	Aug_1_2012	24092.41	18443.82	17977.89	18896			17920(-4.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	10	-10000	1	38	0.01	48%	-0.86	-37.1	6.48%	0	-0.3	53	0
8	Jul_31_2012	24300.57	18736.54	17875.38	18844			18800(-5.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	16	-10000	9	35	0	48%	-0.85	-25.4	6.51%	0	0	55	0
9	Jul_30_2012	24508.74	18874.5	17736.62	18332			19880(3.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	14	-10000	13	15	0	48%	-0.88	-31.8	6.47%	0	0.5	53	0
10	Jul_27_2012	24725.88	18952.1	17522.59	17604			19120(1.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-1	-10000	6	-22	0	48%	-0.91	-39	6.46%	0	0.1	40	0

11	Jul_26_2012	24952.21	18986.38	17411.34	17268			18760(6.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-7	-10000	6	-46	0	48%	-0.85	-46.7	6.47%	0	-0.1	37	0
12	Jul_25_2012	25166.9	19103.82	17273.71	16964			17660(8.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-18	-10000	3	-81	0	50%	-0.88	-57.4	6.42%	0	-0.6	25	0
13	Jul_24_2012	25389.35	19293.9	17281.98	16788			16240(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-33	-10000	-5	-116	0	48%	-1.04	-67.7	6.39%	0	-1.3	14	0
14	Jul_23_2012	25656.08	19611.89	17552.53	17040			16240(-6.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-35	-10000	-6	-122	0	46%	-1.13	-73.6	6.39%	0	-1.4	30	0
15	Jul_20_2012	25948.53	19897.57	18005.71	17400			17440(1.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-31	-10000	-3	-116	0	48%	-1.18	-80.7	6.39%	0	-1.1	33	0

16	Jul_19_2012	26257.51	20133.66	18367.16	17568			17240(2.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-27	-10000	-1	-106	0	48%	-1.13	-87.2	6.39%	0	-1.3	43	0
17	Jul_18_2012	26558.12	20565.16	18939.74	17632			16780(-4.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-28	-10000	-4	-98	0	48%	-1.33	-78.3	6.38%	0	-1.5	37	0
18	Jul_17_2012	26917.1	21057.68	19669.1	17844			17500(-2.99%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-25	-10000	-5	-83	0	48%	-1.16	-70.2	6.37%	0	-1.4	38	0
19	Jul_16_2012	27234.04	21520.94	20114.46	18140			18040(-1.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-28	-10000	-10	-80	0	48%	-1.17	-60.5	6.38%	0	-1.3	37	0
20	Jul_13_2012	27557.31	21902.9	20505.32	18720			18280(4.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-24	-10000	-10	-67	0	48%	-1.22	-54.8	6.4%	0	-1.3	41	0

21	Jul_12_2012	27896.29	22273.89	20702.81	19324			17560(-1.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-30	-10000	-18	-66	0	51%	-1.19	-48.9	6.39%	0	-1.7	37	0
22	Jul_11_2012	28231.8	22681.07	21110.73	20472			17840(-6.01%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-28	-10000	-18	-56	0	51%	-1.08	-43.7	6.54%	0	-1.9	30	0
23	Jul_10_2012	28538.94	23075.2	21515.3	21768			18980(-9.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-17	-10000	-8	-43	0	51%	-0.34	-36.5	6.52%	0	-1.7	30	0
24	Jul_9_2012	28637.49	23332.04	21893.89	22348			20940(-1.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-13	-10000	-2	-44	0	53%	-0.83	-39	6.43%	0	-1.1	33	0
25	Jul_6_2012	28876.87	23529.64	21988.57	22528			21300(-8.58%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.6	-10	-10000	4	-52	0	53%		-39.4	6.44%	0	-1.1	39	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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