Trading Signals: NUGT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Sep. 1, 2011

Trading Signals: NUGT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Dec. 8, 2010 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF)
NUGT latest price $78420.0000 (2%) ($75680.0000 - $79557.0000) on Thu. Sep. 1, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.96% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $78420.0000(2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NUGT advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NUGT advances 3.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NUGT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
GLD(74%)    EEM(26%)    LQD(25%)    PCY(25%)    REMX(25%)
Factors Impacting NUGT price   NUGT will decline at least -1.98% in a week (0% probabilities).
PEJ(10%)    XLY(11%)    SHY(11%)    XLK(13%)    XLP(14%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.98% (StdDev 3.96%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $76716(2.22%)
10 Day Moving Average   $75370.95(4.05%)
20 Day Moving Average   $72010.93(8.9%)
To recent high   -1.1%
To recent low   46.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. NUGT is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. NUGT price fluctuates within 7.51% (three month std-dev: 3.96%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20111001

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_1_2011	66405.85	72010.93	75370.95	76716			78420(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	22	-10000	8	63	0	54%	0.05	55.1	3.96%	0	1.2	63	0
2	Aug_31_2011	66371.97	71174.55	74540.09	75588			76880(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	19	-10000	9	50	0	54%	0.02	46.7	3.98%	0	1.1	59	0
3	Aug_30_2011	66359.11	70765.55	74083.12	74232			77340(3.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	14	-10000	5	39	0	54%	-0.01	42	3.98%	0	1.3	60	0
4	Aug_29_2011	66367.89	70249.67	73456.62	73528			74720(-1.97%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	5	-10000	-6	38	0	54%	-0.12	35	3.99%	0	0.9	64	0
5	Aug_26_2011	66449.72	69768.94	73245.45	74440			76220(4.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	23	-10000	4	79	0	54%	-0.05	34.3	3.99%	0	1.3	71	0

6	Aug_25_2011	66482.54	69148.2	72519.3	73888			72780(3.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.2	26	-10000	4	93	0	53%	-0.11	23.9	3.96%	0	0.8	69	0
7	Aug_24_2011	66557.23	68836.18	72317.63	73324			70100(-5.04%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	24	-10000	-3	105	0	54%	-0.15	16.3	3.94%	0	0.3	65	0
8	Aug_23_2011	66656.01	68713.34	72328.7	73784			73820(-6.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	33	-10000	4	119	0	56%	0.02	14.7	3.91%	0	1.1	56	0
9	Aug_22_2011	66643.15	68574.03	71534.46	73260			79280(7.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	37	-10000	10	116	0	59%	0.1	13.3	3.82%	0	2.3	63	0
10	Aug_19_2011	66575.81	68122.8	69668.18	71944			73460(5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	29	-10000	7	94	0	57%	0	4.9	3.7%	0	1.3	62	0

11	Aug_18_2011	66575.81	68046.83	68403.96	71032			69960(-3.37%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	18	-10000	-1	74	0	55%	-0.04	1.4	3.65%	0	0.5	60	0
12	Aug_17_2011	66599.89	68091.68	67591.65	71164			72400(1.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	20	-10000	4	68	0	55%	0.04	5.1	3.62%	0	1.1	58	0
13	Aug_16_2011	66572.54	68031.62	67193.45	70624			71200(-2.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	24	-10000	9	67	0	55%	0.02	4	3.63%	0	0.8	55	0
14	Aug_15_2011	66556.01	67971.25	66767.78	69464			72700(5.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	27	-10000	20	46	0	55%	0.01	1.9	3.61%	0	1.2	50	0
15	Aug_12_2011	66550.09	67926.2	65953.19	67024			68900(-2.44%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	10	-10000	15	-6	0	52%	-0.07	-2.4	3.56%	0	0.2	45	0

16	Aug_11_2011	66595.81	67993.92	65445.19	65324			70620(1.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.3	-1	-10000	16	-50	0	49%	-0.05	-5.9	3.55%	0	0.7	45	0
17	Aug_10_2011	66628.46	67886.07	64982.33	63476			69700(6.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.6	-22	-10000	1	-90	0	49%	0.01	-12.1	3.65%	0	0.5	47	0
18	Aug_9_2011	66623.15	67872.41	64700.62	63380			65400(8.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-30	-10000	-4	-106	0	48%	-0.05	-4.8	3.57%	0	-0.6	40	0
19	Aug_8_2011	66656.42	67897.37	65284	63800			60500(0.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-32	-10000	-8	-104	0	43%	-0.07	2.8	3.45%	0	-1.8	33	0
20	Aug_5_2011	66705.81	68023.85	66418.55	64728			60400(-1.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-28	-10000	-6	-94	0	40%	-0.04	14.2	3.45%	0	-1.9	30	0

21	Aug_4_2011	66735.18	68223.57	67699.25	65448			61380(-11.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-26	-10000	-9	-78	0	40%	-0.01	25.1	3.57%	0	-1.8	37	0
22	Aug_3_2011	66743.55	68366.44	68748.44	66524			69220(2.55%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-13	-10000	3	-60	0	42%	0.06	39.6	3.28%	0	0.2	52	0
23	Aug_2_2011	66700.7	68064.61	69002.24	66224			67500(3.62%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-22	-10000	-8	-63	0	39%	-0.01	42.5	3.36%	0	-0.1	47	0
24	Aug_1_2011	66708.25	67783.1	69320.04	67128			65140(1.78%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-19	-10000	-12	-41	0	37%	-0.05	55.9	3.42%	0	-0.7	54	0
25	Jul_29_2011	66741.92	67465.5	70109.27	68476			64000(-4.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-11	-10000	-15	2	0	37%		61.1	3.44%	0	-0.8	60	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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