Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 22, 2024

Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. May. 3, 2024)

(Microsoft)
MSFT latest price $411.9000 (2.57%) ($411.9000 - $411.9000) on Thu. Feb. 22, 2024.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.09% (three month average)
RSI   57
Latest Price   $411.9000(2.57%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   MSFT advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   MSFT declines -0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support MSFT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVW(81%)    QQQ(81%)    SPY(77%)    DIA(64%)    SMH(60%)
Factors Impacting MSFT price   MSFT will decline at least -0.545% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-53%)    VIXM(-30%)    UUP(-12%)    TLT(1%)    GDX(12%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.545% (StdDev 1.09%)
Hourly BBV 1.5 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $405.07(1.69%)
10 Day Moving Average   $408.8(0.76%)
20 Day Moving Average   $407.84(1%)
To recent high   -2.1%
To recent low   12.5%
Market Cap   $3118.495b

Microsoft Corp. engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment comprises products and services in the portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services of the company spanning a variety of devices and platform. The Intelligent Cloud segment refers to the public, private, and hybrid serve products and cloud services of the company which can power modern business. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses products and services geared towards the interests of end users, developers, and IT professionals across all devices. The firm also offers operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; personal computers, tablets; gaming and entertainment consoles; other intelligent devices; and related accessories. The company was founded by Paul Gardner Allen and William Henry Gates III in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, WA.

$. MSFT price fluctuates within 1.33% (three month std-dev: 1.09%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 3.22%(40%) Average negative next day return: -0.8%(60%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 2.38%(80%) Average negative next three day return: -0.68%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 4.73%(40%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.42%(60%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_22_2024	372.67	407.84	408.8	405.07	404.81	406.76	411.9(2.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	228	30	275	85	18.43	59%	0.26	27.8	1.09%	1.5	0.8	57	0.9
2	Feb_21_2024	371.71	407.38	408.91	404.5	403.37	401.68	401.58(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-101	-40	-115	-57	13.04	56%	0.25	35.8	1.05%	-0.8	-1.1	56	-0.3
3	Feb_20_2024	370.79	407.33	409.39	405.5	405.25	402.87	401.74(-0.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-125	-40	-145	-66	17.04	59%	0.37	47.4	1.06%	-1	-1	46	0.1
4	Feb_16_2024	369.41	407.15	409.96	408.22	406.26	405.06	403.99(-0.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-173	-40	-206	-74	16.13	58%	0.26	62.7	1.11%	-1.9	-0.5	47	1.4
5	Feb_15_2024	368.47	406.93	410.86	411.57	409.07	407.64	406.14(-0.72%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.8	-71	-40	-96	5	16.91	58%	0.26	81.2	1.12%	-0.3	-0.1	53	1.6

6	Feb_14_2024	367.51	406.36	410.7	413.03	412.71	407.46	409.06(0.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-130	-90	-168	-14	15.17	58%	0.27	84.5	1.12%	-0.4	0.4	54	1.2
7	Feb_13_2024	366.51	405.44	409.71	413.97	413.79	410.49	406.57(-2.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-315	-60	-387	-99	27.78	58%	0.25	90.1	1.12%	-1.6	0.1	54	-0.3
8	Feb_12_2024	365.58	404.69	409.97	413.67	415.82	417.97	415.34(-1.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	117	50	118	115	20.26	62%	0.28	96.6	1.09%	-0.6	1.3	63	1.6
9	Feb_9_2024	364.56	403.37	409.31	411.83	413.28	417.09	420.73(1.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	239	80	260	174	17.25	67%	0.28	100	1.11%	1.7	2	69	1.3
10	Feb_8_2024	363.53	401.54	407.55	410.18	409.64	413.68	413.46(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	193	70	207	150	14.01	65%	0.26	105.7	1.1%	0.9	1.4	63	2.3

11	Feb_7_2024	362.57	400.04	406.67	408.15	409.41	409.47	413.77(2.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	241	10	263	173	16.21	65%	0.24	103.2	1.1%	1.8	1.5	67	2.3
12	Feb_6_2024	361.7	398.18	405.5	404.93	406.76	405.6	405.04(-0.28%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	0	-91	-10	-125	12	14.22	63%	0.22	88.1	1.08%	-0.9	0.7	65	2.3
13	Feb_5_2024	360.9	396.75	404.96	405.67	404.89	409.35	406.16(-1.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	59	70	45	99	17.7	63%	0.22	82.5	1.08%	-0.6	0.9	66	1.9
14	Feb_2_2024	360.12	394.93	404.07	406.32	405.53	407.92	412.5(2.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	350	40	382	253	21.75	68%	0.21	72.8	1.06%	1.6	1.5	73	-0.4
15	Feb_1_2024	359.36	392.73	402.6	404.64	404.79	400.43	403.3(1.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-91	-70	-139	55	24.14	68%	0.2	64.4	1.03%	-0.5	0.8	72	-0.3

16	Jan_31_2024	358.66	391.13	401.66	404.99	404.98	403.15	397.64(-2.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-254	-30	-336	-8	46.58	66%	0.19	61.6	1.06%	-2.2	0.5	70	-0.3
17	Jan_30_2024	357.99	389.83	401.01	405.98	406.7	409.15	408.74(-0.17%)	TP	CloseLong	-10	0.2	191	50	175	237	22.87	76%	0.2	60.7	0.99%	0.7	1.4	91	1.2
18	Jan_29_2024	357.26	388.12	399.15	404.03	405.16	406.81	409.44(1.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	227	40	216	258	17.28	76%	0.22	59.6	1.02%	2.3	1.6	92	0.2
19	Jan_26_2024	356.49	386.37	397.03	401.44	402.52	404.25	404.06(-0.25%)	TP	CloseLong	-10	0.2	135	40	104	226	12.45	66%	0.21	59.9	1.01%	-0.7	1.4	93	0.3
20	Jan_25_2024	355.73	384.79	395.09	400.3	400.46	403.51	405.07(0.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	192	50	172	252	20.93	69%	0.21	60.8	1.12%	0.5	1.7	95	-0.4

21	Jan_24_2024	354.98	383.2	392.88	397.91	398.95	400.8	402.58(0.9%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	228	40	216	264	18.17	69%	0.2	60.3	1.17%	1.2	1.7	88	0.7
22	Jan_23_2024	354.26	381.72	390.23	395.28	396.62	397.41	398.98(0.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	112	20	82	202	14.44	69%	0.13	60.7	1.17%	2.1	1.7	87	1.5
23	Jan_22_2024	353.8	380.37	387.87	393.5	394.22	397.1	396.53(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	123	60	98	198	26.87	69%	0.2	63.3	1.17%	0.9	1.7	74	0.7
24	Jan_19_2024	353.09	379.03	385.09	391.91	392.79	395.83	398.34(1.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	258	60	262	244	20.51	66%	0.21	62.4	1.19%	1.7	2.1	76	0.2
25	Jan_18_2024	352.35	377.67	382.05	389.11	390.34	391.35	393.11(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	142	30	133	169	16.07	64%		61.8	1.18%	1.4	2	75	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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