Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Feb. 16, 2016

Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(Microsoft)
MSFT latest price $47.9503 (1.89%) ($47.0493 - $47.9503) on Tue. Feb. 16, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.76% (three month average)
RSI   48
Latest Price   $47.9503(1.89%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   MSFT advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   MSFT declines -2.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support MSFT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(87%)    IWF(86%)    IVW(85%)    XLK(82%)    SPY(79%)
Factors Impacting MSFT price   MSFT will decline at least -0.88% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    TLT(-11%)    UUP(-9%)    IPO(-6%)    SHY(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.88% (StdDev 1.76%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $40.87(-14.77%)
5 Day Moving Average   $46.71(2.66%)
10 Day Moving Average   $47.24(1.5%)
20 Day Moving Average   $47.89(0.13%)
To recent high   -9%
To recent low   4.4%
Market Cap   $363.032b

Microsoft Corp. engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment comprises products and services in the portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services of the company spanning a variety of devices and platform. The Intelligent Cloud segment refers to the public, private, and hybrid serve products and cloud services of the company which can power modern business. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses products and services geared towards the interests of end users, developers, and IT professionals across all devices. The firm also offers operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; personal computers, tablets; gaming and entertainment consoles; other intelligent devices; and related accessories. The company was founded by Paul Gardner Allen and William Henry Gates III in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, WA.

$. MSFT price fluctuates within 3.03% (three month std-dev: 1.76%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160316

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_16_2016	48.55	47.89	47.24	46.71			47.95(1.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-16	-10000	9	-92	37.29	44%	0.33	-34	1.76%	0	0	48	0
2	Feb_12_2016	48.39	47.88	47.5	46.33			47.06(1.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-23	-10000	1	-95	34.24	42%	0.14	-45.2	1.74%	0	-0.6	46	0
3	Feb_11_2016	48.32	47.99	47.9	46.27			46.3(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-30	-10000	-11	-88	48.88	42%	0.12	-43.5	1.73%	0	-1.1	41	0
4	Feb_10_2016	48.26	48.09	48.13	46.7			46.32(0.87%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-24	-10000	-11	-63	38.24	42%	0.12	-44.1	1.73%	0	-1.2	50	0
5	Feb_9_2016	48.2	48.24	48.3	47.15			45.92(-0.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-24	-10000	-17	-46	46.74	42%	0.1	-43.7	1.73%	0	-1.7	47	0

6	Feb_8_2016	48.15	48.39	48.6	47.85			46.04(-1.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-20	-10000	-23	-12	59.29	42%	0.12	-40.8	1.74%	0	-1.8	49	0
7	Feb_5_2016	48.09	48.54	48.85	48.83			46.74(-3.54%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.8	-8	-10000	-21	33	62.01	42%	0.12	-33.5	1.74%	0	-1.6	49	0
8	Feb_4_2016	48.03	48.64	49.08	49.75			48.46(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.2	20	-10000	-0	78	46.99	45%	0.17	-28.8	1.68%	0	-0.2	46	0
9	Feb_3_2016	47.95	48.73	48.96	49.76			48.61(-1.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1	22	-10000	4	74	57.56	45%	0.17	-36	1.68%	0	-0.1	53	0
10	Feb_2_2016	47.87	48.85	48.86	49.59			49.39(-3.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	17	-10000	4	56	56.31	45%	0.21	-39.3	1.68%	0	0.4	51	0

11	Feb_1_2016	47.77	48.92	48.64	49.43			50.98(-0.69%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.1	21	-10000	13	44	44.21	49%	0.23	-43.5	1.64%	0	1.5	57	0
12	Jan_29_2016	47.66	48.93	48.27	48.89			51.34(5.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	13	-10000	13	13	83.61	49%	0.23	-57.8	1.65%	0	1.8	58	0
13	Jan_28_2016	47.55	48.96	48.04	48.37			48.51(1.63%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	4	-10000	8	-7	62.51	40%	0.19	-64.5	1.48%	0	-0.3	50	0
14	Jan_27_2016	47.46	49.15	47.99	48.07			47.73(-1.82%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-9	-10000	2	-40	36.78	37%	0.15	-56.7	1.47%	0	-0.9	38	0
15	Jan_26_2016	47.39	49.36	47.99	47.99			48.61(0.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-8	-10000	9	-58	28.9	44%	0.04	-49.1	1.45%	0	-0.4	37	0

16	Jan_25_2016	47.37	49.52	48.13	47.69			48.26(-0.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-20	-10000	4	-91	34.71	44%	0.19	-51.4	1.49%	0	-0.7	37	0
17	Jan_22_2016	47.28	49.7	48.17	47.55			48.73(3.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-26	-10000	-3	-94	37.56	59%	0.19	-53.7	1.95%	0	-0.5	35	0
18	Jan_21_2016	47.19	49.84	48.15	47.7			47.04(-0.61%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-33	-10000	-5	-115	40.19	55%	0.15	-50.1	1.91%	0	-1.5	23	0
19	Jan_20_2016	47.12	50.06	48.48	47.91			47.33(0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-37	-10000	-8	-123	63.27	55%	0.19	-50	1.92%	0	-1.5	23	0
20	Jan_19_2016	47.03	50.23	48.86	48.29			47.11(-0.84%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-34	-10000	-7	-116	43.56	55%	0.3	-47.2	1.92%	0	-1.8	27	0

21	Jan_15_2016	46.89	50.48	49.26	48.61			47.52(-3.99%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-32	-10000	-5	-111	71.82	55%	0.15	-47.2	1.9%	0	-1.9	30	0
22	Jan_14_2016	46.82	50.72	49.67	48.86			49.49(2.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-24	-10000	4	-107	52.38	61%	0.21	-44.3	1.83%	0	-0.9	35	0
23	Jan_13_2016	46.72	50.83	49.95	48.68			48.12(-2.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-37	-10000	-10	-117	66.88	58%	0.24	-49.5	1.8%	0	-1.9	29	0
24	Jan_12_2016	46.61	51	50.4	49.13			49.18(0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-31	-10000	-10	-95	36.1	62%	0.24	-48.2	1.78%	0	-1.4	38	0
25	Jan_11_2016	46.5	51.08	50.7	49.56			48.74(-0.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-25	-10000	-10	-71	36.94	62%		-48.5	1.78%	0	-1.9	42	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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