Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Mar. 18, 2015

Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 7, 2024)

(Microsoft)
MSFT latest price $38.8286 (1.93%) ($37.7596 - $39.1301) on Wed. Mar. 18, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.76% (three month average)
RSI   34
Latest Price   $38.8286(1.93%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   MSFT advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   MSFT declines -2.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support MSFT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(86%)    XLK(82%)    SPY(78%)    VT(71%)    XLY(67%)
Factors Impacting MSFT price   MSFT will decline at least -0.88% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-25%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-5%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.88% (StdDev 1.76%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.6%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $33.93(-12.62%)
Resistance Level   $39.15
5 Day Moving Average   $38.03(2.1%)
10 Day Moving Average   $38.4(1.12%)
20 Day Moving Average   $39.15(-0.82%)
To recent high   -11.7%
To recent low   5.9%
Market Cap   $293.971b

Microsoft Corp. engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment comprises products and services in the portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services of the company spanning a variety of devices and platform. The Intelligent Cloud segment refers to the public, private, and hybrid serve products and cloud services of the company which can power modern business. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses products and services geared towards the interests of end users, developers, and IT professionals across all devices. The firm also offers operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; personal computers, tablets; gaming and entertainment consoles; other intelligent devices; and related accessories. The company was founded by Paul Gardner Allen and William Henry Gates III in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, WA.

$. MSFT price fluctuates within 2.3% (three month std-dev: 1.76%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150418

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_18_2015	41.45	39.15	38.4	38.03			38.83(1.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-17	-10000	3	-76	44.19	44%	-0.07	-41.3	1.76%	0	-0.4	34	0
2	Mar_17_2015	41.48	39.2	38.43	37.94			38.09(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-24	-10000	-2	-88	31.67	41%	-0.07	-38.7	1.81%	0	-1.2	26	0
3	Mar_16_2015	41.51	39.29	38.57	38			37.97(0.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-29	-10000	-7	-94	35.27	38%	-0.1	-31.3	1.82%	0	-1.5	24	0
4	Mar_13_2015	41.55	39.38	38.78	38.24			37.81(0.88%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-25	-10000	-5	-84	58.01	38%	-0.07	-18.5	1.85%	0	-1.9	21	0
5	Mar_12_2015	41.58	39.46	39	38.42			37.48(-2.29%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.3	-28	-10000	-11	-80	59.99	38%	-0.07	-10.5	1.86%	0	-2.6	21	0

6	Mar_11_2015	41.61	39.53	39.29	38.8			38.35(-0.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-18	-10000	-5	-58	32.22	40%	-0.05	7.4	1.84%	0	-1.8	34	0
7	Mar_10_2015	41.63	39.55	39.47	38.99			38.4(-1.91%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-17	-10000	-6	-48	39.16	38%	-0.02	23.6	1.84%	0	-1.9	34	0
8	Mar_9_2015	41.64	39.57	39.67	39.22			39.15(1.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-13	-10000	-5	-35	32.11	40%	0	42.2	1.83%	0	-0.7	41	0
9	Mar_6_2015	41.64	39.57	39.79	39.41			38.7(-1.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-11	-10000	-7	-24	36.25	39%	0	61	1.82%	0	-1.3	32	0
10	Mar_5_2015	41.64	39.54	39.93	39.68			39.39(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-5	-10000	-5	-4	23.19	39%	0	74	1.82%	0	-0.2	60	0

11	Mar_4_2015	41.64	39.48	39.98	39.86			39.34(-0.52%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-0	-10000	-5	14	25.75	41%	0	77.4	1.83%	0	-0.2	69	0
12	Mar_3_2015	41.64	39.41	40.03	40.03			39.54(-1.37%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	5	-10000	-4	31	31.75	41%	0	70.4	1.84%	0	0.2	68	0
13	Mar_2_2015	41.64	39.31	40.07	40.17			40.09(0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	12	-10000	-1	51	31.92	41%	0.02	43	1.83%	0	0.8	80	0
14	Feb_27_2015	41.63	39.15	40.04	40.17			40.06(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	16	-10000	0	65	33.81	43%	-0.05	13.2	1.82%	0	0.9	79	0
15	Feb_26_2015	41.65	39.05	39.95	40.22			40.25(0.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	20	-10000	3	72	28.96	43%	-0.05	-6.3	1.83%	0	1.1	82	0

16	Feb_25_2015	41.67	38.91	39.78	40.12			40.19(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	-10000	2	73	29.76	43%	0	-26.6	1.83%	0	1.2	85	0
17	Feb_24_2015	41.67	38.83	39.63	40.04			40.28(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	22	-10000	3	78	25.27	43%	-0.05	-44.9	1.83%	0	1.4	88	0
18	Feb_23_2015	41.69	38.92	39.45	39.95			40.34(0.67%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	23	-10000	3	83	32.52	43%	-0.02	-35.6	1.84%	0	1.1	90	0
19	Feb_20_2015	41.7	39.01	39.26	39.84			40.07(0.82%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	28	-10000	5	95	29.72	42%	-0.02	-28.3	1.84%	0	0.7	92	0
20	Feb_19_2015	41.71	39.12	39.11	39.64			39.74(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	28	-10000	7	92	27.6	42%	-0.05	-25.9	1.84%	0	0.4	64	0

21	Feb_18_2015	41.73	39.2	38.93	39.38			39.77(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	-10000	6	85	27.11	42%	-0.05	-29.8	1.85%	0	0.3	69	0
22	Feb_17_2015	41.75	39.29	38.73	39.16			39.82(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	24	-10000	8	70	33.7	42%	-0.05	-32.1	1.85%	0	0.3	56	0
23	Feb_13_2015	41.77	39.39	38.49	38.88			39.8(1.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	10	-10000	7	17	40.26	44%	-0.05	-36.8	1.83%	0	0.2	36	0
24	Feb_12_2015	41.79	39.45	38.18	38.62			39.09(1.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-9	-10000	3	-44	33.27	44%	-0.1	-44.3	1.83%	0	-0.2	32	0
25	Feb_11_2015	41.83	39.57	38.07	38.5			38.45(-0.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-19	-10000	3	-86	38.26	44%		-45.7	1.82%	0	-0.5	29	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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