Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 8, 2015

Trading Signals: MSFT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(Microsoft)
MSFT latest price $43.1716 (2.94%) ($42.3824 - $43.3167) on Thu. Jan. 8, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.38% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $43.1716(2.94%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   MSFT advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   MSFT declines -1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support MSFT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(86%)    XLK(81%)    SPY(78%)    VT(70%)    XLY(67%)
Factors Impacting MSFT price   MSFT will decline at least -0.69% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-26%)    TLT(-13%)    UUP(-5%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.69% (StdDev 1.38%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.8%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $38.63(-10.52%)
5 Day Moving Average   $42.19(2.33%)
10 Day Moving Average   $42.56(1.44%)
20 Day Moving Average   $42.62(1.29%)
To recent high   -3.5%
To recent low   12%
Market Cap   $326.852b

Microsoft Corp. engages in the development and support of software, services, devices, and solutions. It operates through the following business segments: Productivity and Business Processes; Intelligent Cloud; and More Personal Computing. The Productivity and Business Processes segment comprises products and services in the portfolio of productivity, communication, and information services of the company spanning a variety of devices and platform. The Intelligent Cloud segment refers to the public, private, and hybrid serve products and cloud services of the company which can power modern business. The More Personal Computing segment encompasses products and services geared towards the interests of end users, developers, and IT professionals across all devices. The firm also offers operating systems; cross-device productivity applications; server applications; business solution applications; desktop and server management tools; software development tools; video games; personal computers, tablets; gaming and entertainment consoles; other intelligent devices; and related accessories. The company was founded by Paul Gardner Allen and William Henry Gates III in 1975 and is headquartered in Redmond, WA.

$. MSFT price fluctuates within 1.88% (three month std-dev: 1.38%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150208

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_8_2015	42.17	42.62	42.56	42.19			43.17(2.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-6	-10000	7	-44	29.65	58%	0.07	-44.1	1.38%	0	0.7	63	0
2	Jan_7_2015	42.14	42.61	42.62	41.99			41.94(1.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-12	-10000	-5	-34	29.11	54%	0.02	-57.3	1.38%	0	-0.8	61	0
3	Jan_6_2015	42.13	42.68	42.78	42.13			41.41(-1.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-13	-10000	-11	-18	36.45	54%	0.02	-57.9	1.38%	0	-1.6	46	0
4	Jan_5_2015	42.12	42.81	42.98	42.46			42.02(-0.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-6	-10000	-10	7	39.67	56%	0.05	-46.2	1.36%	0	-1.1	48	0
5	Jan_2_2015	42.1	42.92	43.09	42.74			42.42(0.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-0	-10000	-9	26	27.91	56%	0.12	-29.9	1.36%	0	-0.7	48	0

6	Dec_31_2014	42.05	42.98	43.03	42.99			42.14(-1.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-1	-10000	-12	31	21.55	54%	0.1	-16.5	1.36%	0	-1	49	0
7	Dec_30_2014	42.01	43.07	42.94	43.35			42.65(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	4	-10000	-6	35	16.38	54%	0.1	0	1.36%	0	-0.5	47	0
8	Dec_29_2014	41.97	43.14	42.92	43.53			43.04(-0.9%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	9	-10000	-1	39	14.44	54%	0.1	8.9	1.35%	0	-0.1	48	0
9	Dec_26_2014	41.93	43.14	42.87	43.56			43.43(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	9	-10000	2	31	13.2	54%	0.22	5.7	1.35%	0	0.3	45	0
10	Dec_24_2014	41.84	43.15	42.8	43.5			43.67(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	-10000	15	18	11.44	53%	0.12	1.6	1.37%	0	0.6	44	0

11	Dec_23_2014	41.79	43.11	42.68	43.06			43.95(0.98%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	12	-10000	20	-14	23.66	52%	0.12	-19.5	1.37%	0	1	51	0
12	Dec_22_2014	41.74	43.07	42.58	42.47			43.53(0.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.3	-9	-10000	8	-61	26.57	51%	0.12	-48.4	1.37%	0	0.6	46	0
13	Dec_19_2014	41.69	43.06	42.54	42.23			43.24(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.3	-18	-10000	4	-84	64.55	53%	0.12	-63.4	1.38%	0	0.2	43	0
14	Dec_18_2014	41.64	43.11	42.58	42.1			43.11(3.89%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-21	-10000	2	-88	40.11	53%	0.1	-68.2	1.39%	0	0	48	0
15	Dec_17_2014	41.6	43.13	42.68	42.04			41.49(1.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-30	-10000	-8	-94	34.97	49%	0.05	-71.6	1.31%	0	-1.9	37	0

16	Dec_16_2014	41.58	43.27	42.9	42.25			40.97(-3.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-33	-10000	-16	-82	47.8	50%	0.02	-70.6	1.3%	0	-2.9	36	0
17	Dec_15_2014	41.57	43.46	43.21	42.69			42.34(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-17	-10000	-7	-48	29.25	52%	0.07	-66.4	1.24%	0	-1.8	43	0
18	Dec_12_2014	41.54	43.58	43.39	42.87			42.59(-0.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-16	-10000	-10	-33	34.25	52%	0.07	-53.5	1.25%	0	-1.6	42	0
19	Dec_11_2014	41.51	43.69	43.48	43.14			42.79(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-15	-10000	-11	-25	29.06	52%	0.05	-35.9	1.25%	0	-1.5	37	0
20	Dec_10_2014	41.49	43.75	43.55	43.44			42.55(-1.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-9	-10000	-8	-10	30.43	52%	0.07	-18	1.25%	0	-2.1	41	0

21	Dec_9_2014	41.46	43.83	43.61	43.66			43.17(-0.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-7	-10000	-6	-8	24.33	54%	0.07	0.9	1.23%	0	-1.3	41	0
22	Dec_8_2014	41.43	43.88	43.62	43.81			43.27(-1.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-8	-10000	-6	-12	26.66	55%	0.07	22.3	1.23%	0	-1.2	38	0
23	Dec_5_2014	41.4	43.88	43.65	43.98			43.92(-0.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	1	-10000	4	-10	27.31	58%	0.1	49.5	1.23%	0	0	41	0
24	Dec_4_2014	41.36	43.91	43.67	43.87			44.31(1.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	0	-10000	7	-21	30.35	58%	0.12	66.7	1.23%	0	0.9	44	0
25	Dec_3_2014	41.31	43.86	43.61	43.67			43.62(-0.78%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-7	-10000	4	-38	23.53	57%		62.5	1.22%	0	-0.5	47	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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