Trading Signals: IWM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Apr. 1, 2004

Trading Signals: IWM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares Russell 2000)
IWM latest price $59.4500 (1.11%) ($58.7000 - $59.4700) on Thu. Apr. 1, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.2% (three month average)
RSI   55
Latest Price   $59.4500(1.11%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   IWM advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   IWM advances 1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support IWM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(89%)    XLY(83%)    QQQ(82%)    XLK(78%)    EWG(77%)
Factors Impacting IWM price   IWM will decline at least -0.6% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-19%)    TIP(-11%)    REMX(0%)    LQD(14%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.6% (StdDev 1.2%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $58.44(1.73%)
10 Day Moving Average   $57.42(3.54%)
20 Day Moving Average   $57.54(3.32%)
To recent high   -0.8%
To recent low   6.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.6
One Month Target Price   > $62.66
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $58.9

$. The price is -0.8% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 5.4% away from the target price of 62.66.
$. IWM price fluctuates within 2.14% (three month std-dev: 1.2%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20040501

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_1_2004	56.65	57.54	57.42	58.44			59.45(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	27	-10000	14	65	9.82	57%	0.11	-6.1	1.2%	0	1.6	55	0
2	Mar_31_2004	56.59	57.52	57.19	57.97			58.8(0.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	26	-10000	18	50	13.5	54%	0.11	-11.6	1.21%	0	1.1	61	0
3	Mar_30_2004	56.53	57.52	57.05	57.36			58.67(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	18	-10000	16	24	9.92	54%	0.11	-21.3	1.22%	0	1	56	0
4	Mar_29_2004	56.47	57.51	56.84	56.8			58.2(1.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	6	-10000	14	-17	15.62	56%	0.09	-26.9	1.22%	0	0.6	47	0
5	Mar_26_2004	56.42	57.55	56.66	56.31			57.1(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-15	-10000	1	-64	11.66	54%	0.04	-29.4	1.21%	0	-0.4	40	0

6	Mar_25_2004	56.4	57.61	56.75	56.26			57.06(2.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-22	-10000	-2	-82	19.9	54%	0.07	-28.8	1.21%	0	-0.5	36	0
7	Mar_24_2004	56.36	57.66	56.7	56.32			55.78(-0.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-36	-10000	-11	-110	13.17	51%	0.04	-27.4	1.18%	0	-1.5	30	0
8	Mar_23_2004	56.34	57.77	56.85	56.7			55.85(0.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-30	-10000	-5	-104	15.12	51%	0.04	-24.6	1.18%	0	-1.7	36	0
9	Mar_22_2004	56.32	57.84	57.1	56.86			55.76(-1.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-29	-10000	-5	-100	18.57	51%	0.05	-32.4	1.19%	0	-1.9	36	0
10	Mar_19_2004	56.29	57.91	57.41	57.04			56.85(-0.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-31	-10000	-8	-100	14.28	54%	0.07	-37.4	1.17%	0	-1.1	37	0

11	Mar_18_2004	56.25	57.97	57.69	57.29			57.35(-0.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-16	-10000	4	-74	17.93	56%	0.09	-36.7	1.16%	0	-0.6	46	0
12	Mar_17_2004	56.2	58	57.9	57.14			57.7(1.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-15	-10000	3	-70	18.24	56%	0.09	-47.9	1.17%	0	-0.3	49	0
13	Mar_16_2004	56.15	58.05	58.01	57.04			56.65(0.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-27	-10000	-11	-74	34.8	54%	0.09	-50	1.15%	0	-1.4	47	0
14	Mar_15_2004	56.1	58.19	58.24	57.39			56.63(-2.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-22	-10000	-14	-44	21.1	50%	0.12	-37.1	1.15%	0	-1.6	52	0
15	Mar_12_2004	56.03	58.28	58.51	57.84			58.13(2.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-8	-10000	-10	-1	13.31	54%	0.13	-26	1.14%	0	-0.2	60	0

16	Mar_11_2004	55.96	58.32	58.54	58.17			56.6(-1.01%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.7	-10	-10000	-19	17	21.17	54%	0.11	-5.1	1.1%	0	-1.9	45	0
17	Mar_10_2004	55.9	58.46	58.71	58.77			57.18(-2.09%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.9	6	-10000	-10	53	17.78	54%	0.09	31.3	1.14%	0	-1.5	47	0
18	Mar_9_2004	55.85	58.56	58.79	59.11			58.4(-0.85%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	14	-10000	-3	66	11.06	55%	0.13	52.6	1.11%	0	-0.2	46	0
19	Mar_8_2004	55.78	58.55	58.67	59.19			58.9(-1.42%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	11	-10000	-2	50	7.7	55%	0.13	57.7	1.13%	0	0.4	46	0
20	Mar_5_2004	55.71	58.52	58.48	59.26			59.75(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	18	-10000	8	49	9.17	57%	0.13	63.5	1.11%	0	1.5	58	0

21	Mar_4_2004	55.64	58.37	58.28	58.98			59.61(1.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	13	-10000	9	25	4.84	57%	0.14	47.2	1.13%	0	1.5	53	0
22	Mar_3_2004	55.56	58.2	58.09	58.67			58.87(0.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	4	-10000	7	-4	8.67	52%	0.11	23.2	1.12%	0	0.7	45	0
23	Mar_2_2004	55.5	58.14	58.08	58.44			58.81(-0.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	5	-10000	11	-15	14.43	52%	0.11	8.4	1.14%	0	0.7	48	0
24	Mar_1_2004	55.44	58.09	58.11	58.06			59.28(1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	5	-10000	15	-24	11.02	52%	0.14	-13.1	1.14%	0	1.3	56	0
25	Feb_27_2004	55.36	58.01	58	57.58			58.35(0.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-11	-10000	3	-53	9.05	50%		-37.9	1.12%	0	0.4	52	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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