Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Aug. 30, 2011

Trading Signals: GLD Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 18, 2004 - Tue. May. 21, 2024)

(SPDR Gold Shares)
GLD latest price $179.1000 (3%) ($176.6600 - $179.3100) on Tue. Aug. 30, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.34% (three month average)
RSI   55
Latest Price   $179.1000(3%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   GLD advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GLD advances 0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GLD advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
TIP(32%)    LQD(30%)    IGOV(27%)    PCY(23%)    TLT(21%)
Factors Impacting GLD price   GLD will decline at least -0.67% in a week (0% probabilities).
PEJ(0%)    XLY(3%)    XLK(5%)    SPY(5%)    QQQ(5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.67% (StdDev 1.34%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $174.89(2.41%)
10 Day Moving Average   $176.84(1.28%)
20 Day Moving Average   $172.77(3.66%)
To recent high   -3%
To recent low   23.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. GLD price fluctuates within 3.75% (three month std-dev: 1.34%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 10 Average positive next day return: 2.54%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.4%(50%) Sample size 10 Average positive next three day return: 3.49%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.92%(50%) Sample size 10 Average positive next weekly return: 6.59%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.45%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110930

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_30_2011	154.23	172.77	176.84	174.89	174.37	176.44	179.1(3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	76	70	81	60	23.44	63%	0.24	61.9	1.34%	0	1	55	0
2	Aug_29_2011	153.86	171.91	176.32	174.61	173.46	174.88	173.89(-2.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	50	40	48	57	25.27	61%	0.2	59.7	1.3%	0	0.3	58	0
3	Aug_26_2011	153.55	171.16	176.19	176.75	174.86	172.3	177.47(2.96%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-15	-130	-42	67	38.67	65%	0.24	65.5	1.28%	0	0.9	63	0
4	Aug_25_2011	153.19	170.23	175.48	177.24	176.9	172.03	172.36(0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-223	-200	-297	0	43.27	62%	0.2	67	1.23%	0	0.3	65	0
5	Aug_24_2011	152.89	169.53	175.41	178.32	179.66	177.43	171.65(-3.39%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.8	-128	-60	-199	87	70.7	62%	0.2	70	1.23%	0	0.3	66	0

6	Aug_23_2011	152.58	168.86	175.75	178.87	180.36	181.78	177.67(-3.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	95	80	44	249	55.27	68%	0.25	71.1	1.14%	0	1.1	72	0
7	Aug_22_2011	152.2	167.86	174.89	178.12	178.8	181.89	184.59(2.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	279	130	247	374	27.48	75%	0.31	71	1.02%	0	2	83	0
8	Aug_19_2011	151.73	166.45	173.09	175.56	176.3	178.94	179.95(1.25%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	291	120	263	375	34.41	74%	0.26	69.2	0.99%	0	1.8	84	0
9	Aug_18_2011	151.33	165.23	171.3	173.57	173.79	175.7	177.72(1.89%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	215	80	180	320	25.51	73%	0.27	66	0.99%	0	1.7	81	0
10	Aug_17_2011	150.93	164.06	169.61	172.17	171.79	173.66	174.42(0.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	159	70	115	289	16.48	71%	0.25	65.6	0.97%	0	1.5	80	0

11	Aug_16_2011	150.56	163.12	168.34	172.2	171.03	171.88	173.92(1.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	163	10	113	312	19.66	71%	0.24	70.1	0.97%	0	1.7	80	0
12	Aug_15_2011	150.2	162.14	167.09	171.14	171.07	169.92	171.8(1.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	70	-50	4	266	17.81	70%	0.23	72.1	0.97%	0	1.6	77	0
13	Aug_12_2011	149.86	161.34	165.71	170.21	170.9	170.17	169.97(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	11	-20	-62	228	29.23	69%	0.21	76.3	0.97%	0	1.5	76	0
14	Aug_11_2011	149.55	160.58	164.56	168.56	170.12	172.23	170.75(-2.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	170	110	131	286	49.89	67%	0.21	76	0.96%	0	1.8	79	0
15	Aug_10_2011	149.24	159.74	163.21	166.54	167.76	171.62	174.58(3.54%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.6	329	180	324	342	44.8	72%	0.24	76.6	0.92%	0	2.9	91	0

16	Aug_9_2011	148.88	158.66	161.38	163.92	164.89	168.02	168.61(0.89%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	334	150	340	314	55.77	70%	0.2	86.5	0.83%	0	2.5	81	0
17	Aug_8_2011	148.58	157.84	160.24	162.5	162.94	163.9	167.12(3.32%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.3	216	50	208	240	43	69%	0.2	95	0.84%	0	2.7	82	0
18	Aug_5_2011	148.28	157.04	159.21	160.62	161.47	161.76	161.75(0.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	62	30	35	144	24.56	58%	0.17	102.1	0.75%	0	1.5	65	0
19	Aug_4_2011	148.03	156.47	158.64	159.93	160.51	161.98	160.64(-0.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	101	70	88	139	40.38	54%	0.17	97.6	0.84%	0	1.3	67	0
20	Aug_3_2011	147.78	155.91	158.07	159.27	159.63	161.19	161.49(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	175	80	180	161	27.82	54%	0.18	91.7	0.86%	0	1.7	71	0

21	Aug_2_2011	147.52	155.28	157.5	158.41	158.41	159.05	161.52(2.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	97	30	91	114	24.28	52%	0.16	86.5	0.86%	0	1.8	72	0
22	Aug_1_2011	147.29	154.59	156.79	157.66	157.76	158.07	157.72(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	37	20	23	79	14.83	47%	0.14	90.8	0.83%	0	1	69	0
23	Jul_29_2011	147.09	153.98	156.67	157.58	157.65	157.78	158.29(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	53	10	36	105	17.13	50%	0.14	76.8	0.83%	0	1.2	75	0
24	Jul_28_2011	146.88	153.38	156.35	157.15	157.38	157.45	157.32(0.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	35	10	12	104	11.37	50%	0.12	67.6	0.86%	0	1	76	0
25	Jul_27_2011	146.7	152.88	156.08	156.65	157.12	157.52	157.19(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	59	30	37	126	18.3	54%		59.2	0.86%	0	1.1	78	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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