Trading Signals: GDX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jul. 22, 2014

Trading Signals: GDX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 20, 2013 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF)
GDX latest price $25.9071 (-1.15%) ($25.8389 - $26.2091) on Tue. Jul. 22, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.68% (three month average)
RSI   54
Latest Price   $25.9071(-1.15%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   GDX advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GDX advances 0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GDX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SIL(92%)    GLD(77%)    SLV(67%)    GDXJ(42%)    PCY(31%)
Factors Impacting GDX price   GDX will decline at least -0.84% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-20%)    VIXM(-1%)    UNG(3%)    XHB(4%)    XLF(5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.84% (StdDev 1.68%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $26.05(-0.55%)
10 Day Moving Average   $26.03(-0.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $25.76(0.57%)
To recent high   -2.7%
To recent low   20.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. GDX price fluctuates within 1.82% (three month std-dev: 1.68%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.97%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.15%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0.63%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.03%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 1.42%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.49%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140822

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_22_2014	24.09	25.76	26.03	26.05	26.07	26.1	25.91(-1.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	13	10	8	29	24.41	66%	0	67	1.68%	0	0.3	54	0
2	Jul_21_2014	24.09	25.75	26.02	25.9	25.94	26.13	26.21(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	10	60	8	17	20.05	66%	0.04	79.8	1.68%	0	1	54	0
3	Jul_18_2014	24.08	25.7	25.94	25.84	25.8	26.04	26.25(-0.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	8	60	6	13	29.64	66%	0.04	93.4	1.68%	0	1.2	58	0
4	Jul_17_2014	24.07	25.65	25.89	25.91	25.76	25.76	26.3(2.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	13	-20	8	27	49.43	66%	0.04	122.3	1.69%	0	1.4	59	0
5	Jul_16_2014	24.06	25.55	25.89	25.84	25.84	25.55	25.61(1.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-9	-80	-19	20	35.83	64%	0	112.8	1.67%	0	0.1	56	0

6	Jul_15_2014	24.06	25.45	25.84	26.01	26.08	25.77	25.12(-3.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-4	-80	-20	43	57.3	63%	-0.04	103.7	1.66%	0	-0.5	56	0
7	Jul_14_2014	24.07	25.38	25.91	26.14	26.23	26.14	25.91(-2.64%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	16	-10	-1	66	50.88	68%	0	99.7	1.63%	0	0.6	53	0
8	Jul_11_2014	24.07	25.26	25.86	26.03	26.15	26.39	26.62(2.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	28	80	14	68	44.29	72%	0.04	96.1	1.6%	0	1.5	63	0
9	Jul_10_2014	24.06	25.1	25.72	25.87	25.93	26.33	25.93(-1.99%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	29	110	19	57	56.46	70%	0.04	96.8	1.58%	0	0.9	55	0
10	Jul_9_2014	24.05	24.96	25.64	25.84	25.72	25.91	26.45(2.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	35	40	23	71	45.72	74%	0.04	93.9	1.58%	0	1.5	71	0

11	Jul_8_2014	24.04	24.76	25.48	25.84	25.6	25.91	25.78(1.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	17	-30	-0	68	39.25	74%	0.08	87	1.55%	0	0.9	72	0
12	Jul_7_2014	24.02	24.58	25.45	25.67	25.6	25.53	25.37(-1.74%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	23	-30	-3	99	27.76	73%	-0.08	80.3	1.57%	0	0.7	71	0
13	Jul_3_2014	24.04	24.42	25.44	25.65	25.62	25.66	25.82(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	36	10	5	130	24.03	77%	0.08	72.4	1.54%	0	1	74	0
14	Jul_2_2014	24.02	24.23	25.39	25.55	25.53	25.71	25.8(0.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	50	50	15	156	47.78	79%	0.04	69.8	1.55%	0	1.1	74	0
15	Jul_1_2014	24.01	24.03	25.23	25.41	25.37	25.57	25.57(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	54	50	17	165	37.69	79%	0.04	67.4	1.58%	0	1.1	77	0

16	Jun_30_2014	24	23.85	25.04	25.26	25.2	25.36	25.77(1.81%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	48	40	8	167	35.17	79%	0.13	64	1.59%	0	1.3	81	0
17	Jun_27_2014	23.97	23.64	24.8	25.22	25.16	25.18	25.31(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	52	-0	5	191	18.78	78%	0.08	62.6	1.58%	0	1.2	82	0
18	Jun_26_2014	23.95	23.47	24.63	25.19	25.19	25.04	25.28(0.74%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	48	-40	-6	211	24.49	69%	0.13	60	1.58%	0	1.3	80	0
19	Jun_25_2014	23.92	23.29	24.44	25.22	25.22	25.15	25.1(1.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0.1	61	-20	4	233	26.66	69%	0.08	58	1.67%	0	1.3	79	0
20	Jun_24_2014	23.9	23.11	24.22	25.02	25.21	25.34	24.82(-3.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	78	60	21	247	47.79	61%	0.08	51.7	1.66%	0	1.3	80	0

21	Jun_23_2014	23.88	22.95	23.99	24.76	24.83	25.28	25.6(1.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	87	140	36	238	29.85	66%	0.13	44	1.72%	0	2	88	0
22	Jun_20_2014	23.85	22.79	23.63	24.31	24.31	25.08	25.16(-1.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	86	220	44	213	39.26	64%	0.13	38.8	1.71%	0	2.1	88	0
23	Jun_19_2014	23.82	22.66	23.32	23.98	23.89	24.38	25.42(5.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.5	88	130	52	196	79.26	58%	0.08	34.6	1.7%	0	2.8	87	0
24	Jun_18_2014	23.8	22.51	22.97	23.58	23.48	23.55	24.12(2.65%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	57	10	21	164	37.02	51%	0.04	26.9	1.63%	0	2.1	84	0
25	Jun_17_2014	23.79	22.44	22.72	23.32	23.32	23.39	23.5(0.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	47	20	14	147	18.76	42%		17.7	1.6%	0	1.6	83	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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