Trading Signals: GBTC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 12, 2017

Trading Signals: GBTC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. May. 31, 2017 - Tue. Feb. 14, 2023)

(Grayscale Bitcoin Trust)
GBTC latest price $23.7341 (22.85%) ($19.6305 - $24.2980) on Tue. Dec. 12, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   7.8% (three month average)
RSI   83
Latest Price   $23.7341(22.85%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   GBTC advances 8.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   GBTC advances 23.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Growth stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support GBTC advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
ARKK(11%)    BOTZ(9%)    EWJ(9%)    EWG(8%)    IBUY(8%)
Factors Impacting GBTC price   GBTC will decline at least -3.9% in a week (0% probabilities).
UNG(-9%)    BNDX(-8%)    BWX(-4%)    VIXM(-2%)    TLT(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.9% (StdDev 7.8%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 20.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $19.35(22.66%)
10 Day Moving Average   $18.28(29.84%)
20 Day Moving Average   $14.72(61.24%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   338.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Acts as Open-End Investment Fund/Unit Trust

$. GBTC price fluctuates within 29.21% (three month std-dev: 7.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 6.1%(75%) Average negative next day return: -14.82%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 26.18%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -13.61%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 16.47%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -11.96%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20180112

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_12_2017	9.12	14.72	18.28	19.35	19.36	20.33	23.73(22.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	78	350	38	198	22.6	76%	1.9	72.3	7.8%	0	2.1	83	0
2	Dec_11_2017	8.95	13.95	17.4	17.89	18.28	18.27	19.32(12.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	48	60	1	187	15.44	74%	1.36	65.5	7.36%	0	1.4	81	0
3	Dec_8_2017	8.83	13.44	16.87	17.84	17.96	18.39	17.23(-9.35%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	57	190	-1	231	15.76	69%	1.03	67	7.27%	0	1	80	0
4	Dec_7_2017	8.74	13.06	16.32	17.87	18.19	18.29	19(8.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	81	90	17	271	23.38	72%	1.39	69.3	7.27%	0	1.6	86	0
5	Dec_6_2017	8.62	12.57	15.48	17.24	17.78	17.54	17.46(6.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	69	-0	2	271	18.24	72%	1.29	69.5	7.25%	0	1.4	86	0

6	Dec_5_2017	8.51	12.15	14.78	17.02	17.26	18.08	16.43(-13.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	79	370	5	301	28.45	72%	1.07	72.6	7.26%	0	1.3	86	0
7	Dec_4_2017	8.42	11.8	14.16	16.8	17.11	18.03	19.06(9.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	112	430	33	348	11.97	77%	1.57	78.4	7.03%	0	2.2	90	0
8	Dec_1_2017	8.29	11.31	13.18	15.76	16.33	16.45	17.39(9.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	103	160	30	323	11.8	69%	1.34	85	7.01%	0	2.2	86	0
9	Nov_30_2017	8.18	10.89	12.37	14.53	15.33	16.19	15.88(-2.69%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	84	560	27	255	16.65	70%	1.11	86.1	7.45%	0	2.1	79	0
10	Nov_29_2017	8.09	10.52	11.67	13.43	14.17	16.21	16.32(6.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.4	86	1170	45	210	32.45	71%	1.38	84	7.54%	0	2.7	81	0

11	Nov_28_2017	7.98	10.11	10.85	12.19	12.49	14.48	15.35(10.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.9	72	1190	46	149	22.19	71%	1.14	86.9	7.57%	0	3.2	80	0
12	Nov_27_2017	7.89	9.71	10.17	11.13	11.14	12.14	13.88(23.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.2	52	630	38	93	17.39	70%	1.02	90.4	7.48%	0	3.4	74	0
13	Nov_24_2017	7.81	9.36	9.67	10.24	10.27	10.49	11.21(7.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	20	160	14	39	4.67	66%	0.51	89.9	6.91%	0	2	60	0
14	Nov_22_2017	7.77	9.16	9.49	9.89	9.96	10.14	10.39(2.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	12	150	9	19	4.77	64%	0.52	73.9	6.81%	0	1.3	57	0
15	Nov_21_2017	7.73	9	9.4	9.63	9.77	10.06	10.14(1.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	15	250	15	15	5.1	64%	0.39	65	6.81%	0	1.1	64	0

16	Nov_20_2017	7.7	8.85	9.32	9.27	9.5	9.79	10.02(6.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	8	290	11	0	5.73	64%	0.39	53.9	6.81%	0	1.1	65	0
17	Nov_17_2017	7.67	8.71	9.27	9.05	9.16	9.48	9.46(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	4	280	4	4	5.34	64%	0.26	49.7	6.82%	0	0.7	71	0
18	Nov_16_2017	7.65	8.61	9.31	9	9.05	9.21	9.43(3.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	7	140	1	24	5.22	64%	0.39	48.6	6.82%	0	0.8	74	0
19	Nov_15_2017	7.62	8.49	9.33	9.05	9.02	8.85	9.08(8.75%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	9	-140	-4	47	6.19	64%	0.26	49.6	6.85%	0	0.5	70	0
20	Nov_14_2017	7.6	8.39	9.31	9.16	9.15	8.88	8.35(-6.65%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	10	-210	-10	70	7.29	67%	0.13	53.9	6.85%	0	-0	68	0

21	Nov_13_2017	7.59	8.33	9.36	9.36	9.42	9.19	8.95(-2.61%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	20	-150	-6	97	6.65	67%	0.26	58.6	7.2%	0	0.5	74	0
22	Nov_10_2017	7.57	8.23	9.25	9.5	9.49	9.43	9.19(-4.99%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	24	-50	-6	113	8.1	68%	0.26	60.8	7.28%	0	0.8	75	0
23	Nov_9_2017	7.55	8.12	9.06	9.5	9.62	9.66	9.67(0.57%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	32	20	0	129	3.38	68%	0.53	65.8	7.29%	0	1.3	77	0
24	Nov_8_2017	7.51	7.99	8.83	9.65	9.74	9.56	9.62(2.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0	38	-100	4	141	11.04	68%	0.4	67.1	7.3%	0	1.4	79	0
25	Nov_7_2017	7.48	7.83	8.58	9.5	9.72	9.59	9.39(-2.71%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	36	-20	2	138	5.24	70%		63.9	7.31%	0	1.5	79	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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