Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ FEX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Jan. 26, 2016

Trading Signals: FEX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Jul. 26, 2023)

(First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund)
FEX latest price $38.4559 (1.67%) ($37.9510 - $38.5282) on Tue. Jan. 26, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.08% (three month average)
RSI   29
Latest Price   $38.4559(1.67%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   FEX advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   FEX declines -2.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support FEX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(24%)    IVW(23%)    IYT(23%)    SPY(23%)    IBB(22%)
Factors Impacting FEX price   FEX will decline at least -0.54% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-24%)    TLT(-13%)    SHY(-13%)    GLD(-8%)    GDX(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.54% (StdDev 1.08%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.3%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $31.14(-19.02%)
Resistance Level   $39.52
5 Day Moving Average   $38.03(1.12%)
10 Day Moving Average   $38.26(0.51%)
20 Day Moving Average   $39.52(-2.69%)
To recent high   -11.2%
To recent low   2.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. FEX price fluctuates within 3.87% (three month std-dev: 1.08%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 0.44%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.42%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 1.47%(25%) Average negative next three day return: -5.34%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 3.55%(25%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.91%(75%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160226

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_26_2016	41.44	39.52	38.26	38.03	38.12	38.15	38.46(1.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-28	10	7	-134	0.48	38%	-0.07	-57.6	1.08%	0	-0.7	29	0
2	Jan_25_2016	41.47	39.69	38.33	37.92	37.89	38.26	37.82(-1.85%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-40	70	5	-173	0.22	35%	-0.07	-55.2	1.06%	0	-1.2	25	0
3	Jan_22_2016	41.5	39.91	38.47	37.97	37.9	38.09	38.54(1.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-28	30	28	-197	0.16	39%	-0.07	-55.8	1.04%	0	-0.9	25	0
4	Jan_21_2016	41.53	40.06	38.59	38.03	37.77	37.53	37.79(0.69%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-78	-60	-21	-248	0.3	36%	-0.07	-53.5	1.02%	0	-1.4	16	0
5	Jan_20_2016	41.56	40.24	38.86	38.15	37.99	37.71	37.53(-1.09%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-104	-60	-47	-274	0.56	36%	-0.07	-52.3	1.02%	0	-1.7	12	0

6	Jan_19_2016	41.59	40.42	39.23	38.53	38.41	38.02	37.94(-0.3%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-91	-80	-36	-254	0.47	37%	-0.1	-50.8	1.01%	0	-1.6	18	0
7	Jan_15_2016	41.63	40.61	39.55	38.79	38.73	38.28	38.06(-2.03%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-100	-90	-48	-256	0.38	37%	-0.1	-53.1	1%	0	-1.9	18	0
8	Jan_14_2016	41.67	40.82	39.91	39.04	39.05	38.8	38.85(1.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-89	-40	-37	-244	0.36	39%	-0.05	-53.2	0.99%	0	-1.6	20	0
9	Jan_13_2016	41.69	40.96	40.23	39.23	39.31	39.18	38.4(-2.59%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-85	-20	-37	-228	0.28	37%	-0.02	-53.5	0.98%	0	-2.2	24	0
10	Jan_12_2016	41.7	41.11	40.62	39.68	39.56	39.31	39.42(0.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-75	-50	-37	-188	0.52	40%	-0.02	-56.8	0.93%	0	-1.7	36	0

11	Jan_11_2016	41.71	41.2	40.88	40.05	39.88	39.44	39.21(-0.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-81	-90	-57	-152	0.48	40%	-0.05	-60.2	0.93%	0	-2.2	38	0
12	Jan_8_2016	41.73	41.34	41.18	40.44	40.38	39.82	39.29(-1.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-76	-100	-63	-114	0.43	40%	-0.1	-58.7	0.93%	0	-2.6	34	0
13	Jan_7_2016	41.77	41.48	41.48	40.92	40.72	40.32	39.84(-1.94%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-73	-80	-71	-77	0.42	43%	-0.1	-59.7	0.93%	0	-2.6	32	0
14	Jan_6_2016	41.81	41.6	41.67	41.36	41.18	40.94	40.63(-1.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-38	-50	-41	-28	0.19	46%	-0.07	-63.5	0.9%	0	-2	44	0
15	Jan_5_2016	41.84	41.69	41.74	41.7	41.56	41.13	41.28(0.3%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-23	-80	-33	7	0.31	53%	-0.07	-51.9	0.88%	0	-0.9	53	0

16	Jan_4_2016	41.87	41.76	41.72	41.84	41.83	41.42	41.16(-1.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.5	-35	-70	-49	9	0.42	53%	-0.12	-43.6	0.91%	0	-1.3	53	0
17	Dec_31_2015	41.92	41.81	41.76	42.03	42.05	42	41.69(-0.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-7	-10	-20	33	0.24	59%	-0.05	-38.5	0.92%	0	-0.2	49	0
18	Dec_30_2015	41.94	41.85	41.8	42.13	42.13	42.23	42.04(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	26	20	14	62	0.18	62%	-0.05	-33.9	0.91%	0	0.4	52	0
19	Dec_29_2015	41.96	41.9	41.75	42.03	42.08	42.1	42.34(0.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	30	10	23	49	0.21	62%	-0.02	-31.5	0.94%	0	0.7	51	0
20	Dec_28_2015	41.97	41.92	41.62	41.79	41.86	42.02	41.98(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	13	30	15	8	0.32	56%	-0.07	-40.5	0.93%	0	0.1	45	0

21	Dec_24_2015	42	41.96	41.53	41.57	41.66	42.07	42.11(-0.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	18	80	32	-26	0.3	56%	-0.05	-45.9	1%	0	0.2	42	0
22	Dec_23_2015	42.02	42	41.49	41.57	41.4	41.71	42.16(1.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	7	50	24	-44	0.24	56%	-0.05	-47.6	1%	0	0.2	50	0
23	Dec_22_2015	42.04	42.03	41.44	41.44	41.36	41.25	41.58(1.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-13	-20	5	-65	0.22	51%	-0.05	-39.8	0.98%	0	-0.6	41	0
24	Dec_21_2015	42.06	42.09	41.49	41.43	41.49	41.08	41.14(0.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-40	-60	-23	-92	0.16	49%	-0.07	-35.3	0.99%	0	-1.3	33	0
25	Dec_18_2015	42.09	42.17	41.61	41.42	41.61	41.47	40.85(-1.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-43	-10	-24	-100	0.22	46%		-28.9	0.99%	0	-1.9	35	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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