Trading Signals: EXC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Feb. 8, 2016

Trading Signals: EXC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Exelon Corporation)
EXC latest price $28.8588 (-1.64%) ($28.6358 - $29.5365) on Mon. Feb. 8, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.6% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $28.8588(-1.64%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EXC advances 1.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EXC advances 8.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EXC advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLU(75%)    SDY(63%)    IWD(58%)    VYM(58%)    IVE(57%)
Factors Impacting EXC price   EXC will decline at least -0.8% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-11%)    TLT(-8%)    DIA(-8%)    IPO(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.8% (StdDev 1.6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $28.41(1.58%)
10 Day Moving Average   $27.16(6.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $25.92(11.34%)
To recent high   -1.6%
To recent low   27.1%
Market Cap   $28.137b

Exelon Corp. operates as a utility services holding company, which engages in the energy generation, power marketing, and energy delivery business. The company operates through the following segments: Mid Atlantic, Midwest, New England, New York, Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and other Power Regions. The Mid-Atlantic segment represents operations in the eastern half of PJM, which includes New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, the District of Columbia and parts of Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The Midwest segment represents operations in the western half of PJM, which includes portions of Illinois, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky and Tennessee, and the United States footprint of MISO, excluding MISO's Southern Region, which covers all or most of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, the remaining parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio not covered by PJM, and parts of Montana, Missouri and Kentucky. The New England (NE) segment represents the operations within (International Standards Organization) ISO-NE covering the states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. The New York (NY) segment represents operations within ISO-NY, which covers the state of New York in its entirety. The ERCOT segment represents operations within Electric Reliability Council of Texas, covering most of the state of Texas. Exelon was founded in February 1999 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. EXC price fluctuates within 6.44% (three month std-dev: 1.6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 16 Average positive next day return: 1.35%(44%) Average negative next day return: -2.61%(56%) Sample size 16 Average positive next three day return: 3.18%(63%) Average negative next three day return: -3.49%(38%) Sample size 16 Average positive next weekly return: 5.17%(63%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.46%(38%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160308

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_8_2016	25.38	25.92	27.16	28.41	28.56	29.06	28.86(-1.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	109	140	39	319	10.06	61%	0.04	58.1	1.6%	0	1.8	74	INF
2	Feb_5_2016	25.37	25.71	26.7	27.98	27.95	28.79	29.34(2.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	120	210	61	296	10.95	60%	0.08	56	1.61%	0	2.4	78	INF
3	Feb_4_2016	25.35	25.47	26.25	27.39	27.3	28.06	28.76(2.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	117	190	70	259	14.22	60%	0.04	54.3	1.61%	0	2.6	72	INF
4	Feb_3_2016	25.34	25.27	25.8	26.76	26.7	27.1	28.19(4.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	95	100	58	205	15.1	58%	0.04	51.7	1.61%	0	2.9	72	INF
5	Feb_2_2016	25.33	25.1	25.36	26.12	26.14	26.55	26.88(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	64	110	38	142	9.87	54%	0.04	48.2	1.49%	0	2.3	63	INF

6	Feb_1_2016	25.32	24.99	25.12	25.71	25.73	26.3	26.75(1.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	68	160	55	108	9.5	54%	0	41	1.5%	0	2.8	61	INF
7	Jan_29_2016	25.32	24.88	24.88	25.21	25.26	25.72	26.37(3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.3	44	130	41	52	11.95	51%	0	23.4	1.53%	0	2.9	61	INF
8	Jan_28_2016	25.32	24.79	24.72	24.93	24.88	25.15	25.6(2.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	27	70	28	25	6.8	48%	0	13.8	1.48%	0	2.3	56	INF
9	Jan_27_2016	25.32	24.75	24.6	24.7	24.74	24.79	25.02(0.75%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1	16	20	23	-7	6.11	43%	-0.08	2.4	1.45%	0	0.9	48	INF
10	Jan_26_2016	25.34	24.74	24.59	24.48	24.54	24.6	24.83(2.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-9	20	2	-40	6.93	41%	-0.04	-7.2	1.47%	0	0.3	47	INF

11	Jan_25_2016	25.35	24.73	24.6	24.44	24.4	24.69	24.22(-3.1%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.7	-8	80	4	-42	8.44	37%	-0.08	4.8	1.46%	0	-1.6	43	INF
12	Jan_22_2016	25.37	24.76	24.66	24.49	24.42	24.47	25(2.22%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.8	3	10	15	-33	7.1	37%	-0.04	29.1	1.48%	0	0.8	53	INF
13	Jan_21_2016	25.38	24.76	24.64	24.47	24.34	24.11	24.45(2.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-20	-80	-12	-44	9.04	33%	-0.08	54.9	1.47%	0	-1	48	INF
14	Jan_20_2016	25.4	24.74	24.7	24.49	24.47	24.36	23.88(-3.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.3	-29	-30	-23	-45	10.76	29%	-0.12	89.9	1.44%	0	-3.2	36	INF
15	Jan_19_2016	25.43	24.76	24.83	24.7	24.64	24.57	24.65(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-8	-30	-6	-15	8.89	32%	-0.2	190.4	1.4%	0	-0.6	49	INF

16	Jan_15_2016	25.48	24.72	24.86	24.78	24.71	24.58	24.49(-1.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-10	-50	-11	-7	10.23	32%	-0.16	144.8	1.4%	0	-0.9	47	INF
17	Jan_14_2016	25.52	24.68	24.9	24.84	24.85	24.72	24.89(1.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-3	-40	-4	2	9.44	33%	-0.12	112	1.41%	0	0.6	53	INF
18	Jan_13_2016	25.55	24.59	24.88	24.83	24.87	24.85	24.56(-1.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-9	-0	-12	-0	8.06	33%	-0.08	82.9	1.4%	0	-0.1	53	INF
19	Jan_12_2016	25.57	24.5	24.92	24.94	24.9	24.98	24.92(-0.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	6	20	0	24	6.83	35%	-0.16	58.6	1.4%	0	0.7	64	INF
20	Jan_11_2016	25.61	24.42	24.9	24.98	24.91	24.9	25.02(0.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	13	-10	4	41	8.19	35%	-0.16	45.7	1.41%	0	0.8	75	INF

21	Jan_8_2016	25.65	24.35	24.9	24.97	24.88	24.82	24.81(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	12	-30	-3	55	7.97	39%	-0.19	39.6	1.4%	0	0.6	77	INF
22	Jan_7_2016	25.7	24.29	24.88	24.96	24.86	24.93	24.83(-1.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	20	10	2	74	5.51	39%	-0.23	34.8	1.44%	0	0.7	79	INF
23	Jan_6_2016	25.76	24.23	24.85	24.93	24.81	24.94	25.14(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	33	20	9	103	6.71	39%	-0.16	27.4	1.43%	0	1.2	92	INF
24	Jan_5_2016	25.8	24.17	24.78	24.89	24.81	24.79	25.11(0.68%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	38	-0	8	129	5.59	39%	-0.19	23.8	1.43%	0	1.3	92	INF
25	Jan_4_2016	25.85	24.1	24.67	24.82	24.74	24.68	24.94(0.72%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	36	-30	2	136	7.32	39%		17.2	1.44%	0	1.2	78	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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