Trading Signals: EXC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Nov. 5, 2014

Trading Signals: EXC Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Exelon Corporation)
EXC latest price $31.9275 (2.88%) ($31.0936 - $32.0807) on Wed. Nov. 5, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.27% (three month average)
RSI   76
Latest Price   $31.9275(2.88%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EXC advances 1.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EXC advances 2.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EXC advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLU(75%)    XLP(55%)    SPY(53%)    VT(51%)    XLI(50%)
Factors Impacting EXC price   EXC will decline at least -0.635% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-19%)    UUP(-10%)    TLT(-7%)    DIA(-1%)    GDXJ(0%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.635% (StdDev 1.27%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

5 Day Moving Average   $31.26(2.14%)
10 Day Moving Average   $30.71(3.96%)
20 Day Moving Average   $30.1(6.07%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   21.7%
Market Cap   $31.129b

Exelon Corp. operates as a utility services holding company, which engages in the energy generation, power marketing, and energy delivery business. The company operates through the following segments: Mid Atlantic, Midwest, New England, New York, Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and other Power Regions. The Mid-Atlantic segment represents operations in the eastern half of PJM, which includes New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, the District of Columbia and parts of Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The Midwest segment represents operations in the western half of PJM, which includes portions of Illinois, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky and Tennessee, and the United States footprint of MISO, excluding MISO's Southern Region, which covers all or most of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, the remaining parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio not covered by PJM, and parts of Montana, Missouri and Kentucky. The New England (NE) segment represents the operations within (International Standards Organization) ISO-NE covering the states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont. The New York (NY) segment represents operations within ISO-NY, which covers the state of New York in its entirety. The ERCOT segment represents operations within Electric Reliability Council of Texas, covering most of the state of Texas. Exelon was founded in February 1999 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

$. EXC price fluctuates within 2.62% (three month std-dev: 1.27%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 15 Average positive next day return: 0.55%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.06%(67%) Sample size 15 Average positive next three day return: 1.66%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -1.42%(60%) Sample size 15 Average positive next weekly return: 2.37%(53%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.01%(47%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141205

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_5_2014	28.65	30.1	30.71	31.26	31.19	31.27	31.93(2.88%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	64	10	35	152	9.28	69%	0.07	51.9	1.27%	0	2.3	76	INF
2	Nov_4_2014	28.63	30.02	30.48	30.88	30.98	31	31.03(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	37	10	7	126	5.56	67%	0	52	1.23%	0	1.5	75	INF
3	Nov_3_2014	28.63	29.94	30.36	30.75	30.79	31.12	30.97(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	49	80	22	128	5.62	67%	0.03	54.7	1.23%	0	1.6	64	INF
4	Oct_31_2014	28.62	29.87	30.24	30.55	30.57	30.96	31.14(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	59	90	35	129	6.73	67%	0.07	53.7	1.23%	0	2.1	69	INF
5	Oct_30_2014	28.6	29.79	30.05	30.4	30.31	30.46	31.23(4.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	51	30	31	110	7.75	65%	0.03	62.9	1.23%	0	2.8	62	INF

6	Oct_29_2014	28.59	29.7	29.84	30.09	30.16	30.19	30.02(-1.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	24	10	7	73	6.4	59%	-0.03	70.3	1.16%	0	0.8	54	INF
7	Oct_28_2014	28.6	29.67	29.73	30.03	30.06	30.17	30.41(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	20	30	12	44	5.82	63%	-0.03	69	1.16%	0	1.7	47	INF
8	Oct_27_2014	28.61	29.59	29.63	29.9	29.96	30.13	29.95(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	17	50	12	31	5.32	61%	-0.07	64	1.16%	0	0.9	53	INF
9	Oct_24_2014	28.63	29.55	29.54	29.86	29.88	29.96	30.4(2.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	25	20	25	23	6.68	63%	-0.03	57	1.16%	0	1.9	57	INF
10	Oct_23_2014	28.64	29.46	29.45	29.64	29.72	29.78	29.68(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	5	20	8	-6	5.66	61%	-0.07	37	1.12%	0	0.5	50	INF

11	Oct_22_2014	28.66	29.41	29.44	29.55	29.58	29.8	29.68(-0.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	14	60	21	-9	6.22	61%	-0.03	30	1.12%	0	0.6	52	INF
12	Oct_21_2014	28.67	29.37	29.51	29.39	29.38	29.67	29.78(0.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	14	70	21	-8	5.63	61%	-0.07	22	1.14%	0	0.9	54	INF
13	Oct_20_2014	28.69	29.33	29.49	29.33	29.22	29.37	29.77(1.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	15	20	22	-5	4.41	61%	-0.03	21.1	1.14%	0	1	58	INF
14	Oct_17_2014	28.7	29.33	29.46	29.18	29.17	29.1	29.26(0.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-9	-20	-4	-22	6.16	55%	-0.03	21.7	1.12%	0	-0.1	54	INF
15	Oct_16_2014	28.71	29.3	29.51	29.25	29.21	29.06	29.25(1.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-14	-40	-17	-4	8.45	55%	-0.03	40.1	1.17%	0	-0.1	58	INF

16	Oct_15_2014	28.72	29.3	29.54	29.33	29.41	29.23	28.87(-2.05%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1	-19	-30	-30	14	12.15	54%	-0.03	48.1	1.16%	0	-0.9	56	INF
17	Oct_14_2014	28.73	29.28	29.61	29.65	29.64	29.36	29.48(1.55%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	3	-70	-17	63	9.05	53%	0.03	73.2	1.13%	0	0.4	59	INF
18	Oct_13_2014	28.72	29.24	29.57	29.67	29.84	29.59	29.03(-2.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-2	-40	-23	62	8.5	51%	0	74.3	1.16%	0	-0.4	52	INF
19	Oct_10_2014	28.72	29.21	29.58	29.78	29.9	29.93	29.64(0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	16	20	-6	80	10.47	51%	0.03	71.9	1.15%	0	0.8	57	INF
20	Oct_9_2014	28.71	29.13	29.49	29.79	29.87	30.08	29.61(-2.87%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	30	60	13	81	8.93	51%	0.03	65.3	1.15%	0	0.8	54	INF

21	Oct_8_2014	28.7	29.07	29.39	29.78	29.74	29.87	30.49(3.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	43	30	27	89	8	56%	0.07	61.1	1.09%	0	2.4	74	INF
22	Oct_7_2014	28.68	28.94	29.22	29.57	29.59	29.66	29.58(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	26	20	12	68	6	51%	0.03	58	1.03%	0	1.3	68	INF
23	Oct_6_2014	28.67	28.87	29.16	29.45	29.53	29.61	29.6(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	27	30	15	62	2.69	51%	0.03	55.5	1.04%	0	1.5	65	INF
24	Oct_3_2014	28.66	28.81	29.12	29.34	29.4	29.52	29.68(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	34	30	22	69	3.68	48%	0	53.8	1.04%	0	1.9	73	INF
25	Oct_2_2014	28.66	28.76	29.07	29.14	29.2	29.45	29.55(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	38	70	27	72	6.4	44%		53.4	1.07%	0	1.9	75	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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