Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 16, 2012

Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(iShares MSCI Japan ETF)
EWJ latest price $39.8200 (0.96%) ($39.3800 - $39.8400) on Thu. Feb. 16, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.19% (three month average)
RSI   71
Latest Price   $39.8200(0.96%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   EWJ advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EWJ advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EWJ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(72%)    EWG(70%)    EEM(69%)    IWM(67%)    EWI(65%)
Factors Impacting EWJ price   EWJ will decline at least -0.595% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-20%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(1%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.595% (StdDev 1.19%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $39.1(1.84%)
10 Day Moving Average   $39(2.1%)
20 Day Moving Average   $38.56(3.27%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   12.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. EWJ price fluctuates within 1.58% (three month std-dev: 1.19%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 20 Average positive next day return: 0.77%(45%) Average negative next day return: -0.62%(55%) Sample size 20 Average positive next three day return: 1.75%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -1.3%(60%) Sample size 20 Average positive next weekly return: 1.48%(55%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.48%(45%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120316

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_16_2012	37.45	38.56	39	39.1	39.23	39.57	39.82(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	38	70	29	65	4.96	55%	0.05	92.4	1.19%	0	2.1	71	0
2	Feb_15_2012	37.43	38.44	38.87	38.94	38.96	39.2	39.44(1.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	28	40	19	56	6.06	55%	0.03	92.3	1.21%	0	1.7	70	0
3	Feb_14_2012	37.42	38.32	38.76	38.87	38.85	38.89	38.8(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	10	5	52	4.7	52%	0.03	84.7	1.19%	0	0.7	63	0
4	Feb_13_2012	37.41	38.21	38.71	38.9	38.9	38.72	38.92(1.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	15	-30	0	61	2.37	52%	0.05	87.3	1.19%	0	1.1	71	0
5	Feb_10_2012	37.39	38.1	38.61	38.83	38.88	38.8	38.52(-1.23%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	3	-10	-13	52	2.57	52%	0.03	79.9	1.19%	0	0.6	59	0

6	Feb_9_2012	37.38	38	38.59	38.86	38.89	39.08	39(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	40	12	71	4.13	50%	0.03	75.1	1.18%	0	1.3	69	0
7	Feb_8_2012	37.37	37.89	38.49	38.78	38.77	38.96	39.12(0.41%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	34	30	20	77	2.65	50%	0.03	69.2	1.2%	0	1.6	76	0
8	Feb_7_2012	37.36	37.77	38.38	38.64	38.65	38.7	38.96(1.04%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	30	10	14	78	3.82	50%	0.03	65.7	1.21%	0	1.6	77	0
9	Feb_6_2012	37.35	37.65	38.24	38.48	38.53	38.7	38.56(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	26	10	8	78	2.21	50%	-0.03	59.9	1.2%	0	1.2	78	0
10	Feb_3_2012	37.36	37.53	38.18	38.36	38.43	38.59	38.68(0.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	31	30	12	89	4.1	50%	0	55.3	1.2%	0	1.5	81	0

11	Feb_2_2012	37.36	37.43	38.09	38.27	38.28	38.48	38.56(0.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	37	40	16	100	2.53	50%	0.03	62.5	1.21%	0	1.5	80	0
12	Feb_1_2012	37.35	37.35	37.97	38.16	38.18	38.27	38.44(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	35	20	13	101	3.32	50%	0.03	71.1	1.21%	0	1.6	75	0
13	Jan_31_2012	37.34	37.28	37.83	38.08	38.11	38.07	38.18(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	29	-0	6	98	5.33	41%	0	80.5	1.21%	0	1.4	70	0
14	Jan_30_2012	37.34	37.19	37.68	38.08	38.04	38.09	37.96(-0.63%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	20	20	1	78	6.29	41%	0.05	81.7	1.42%	0	1.2	73	0
15	Jan_27_2012	37.32	37.1	37.55	37.96	37.92	38.14	38.2(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	28	40	9	86	3.55	48%	0	86.2	1.42%	0	1.8	78	0

16	Jan_26_2012	37.32	36.97	37.38	37.88	37.86	38	38(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	32	20	16	80	5.44	48%	0	80.9	1.5%	0	1.7	67	0
17	Jan_25_2012	37.32	36.86	37.25	37.75	37.76	37.71	38.08(1.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	24	-10	10	67	3.33	48%	0	71	1.5%	0	1.9	59	0
18	Jan_24_2012	37.32	36.77	37.12	37.54	37.61	37.72	37.58(-1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	18	30	7	51	3.83	48%	0	65.7	1.5%	0	1.3	54	0
19	Jan_23_2012	37.32	36.69	37	37.34	37.47	37.81	37.96(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	32	70	26	48	4.98	48%	0	56.6	1.5%	0	2.1	68	0
20	Jan_20_2012	37.32	36.58	36.83	37.07	37.16	37.51	37.8(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	29	70	28	33	6.42	48%	-0.03	46.2	1.51%	0	2.3	69	0

21	Jan_19_2012	37.33	36.49	36.7	36.81	36.87	37.13	37.32(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	21	50	19	26	3.99	48%	-0.05	31	1.5%	0	1.8	72	0
22	Jan_18_2012	37.35	36.41	36.67	36.68	36.68	36.81	37.04(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	14	20	9	27	3.75	48%	-0.05	12.1	1.51%	0	1.4	63	0
23	Jan_17_2012	37.37	36.36	36.68	36.64	36.6	36.62	36.6(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	10	0	3	31	2.96	48%	-0.11	-4.2	1.51%	0	0.6	54	0
24	Jan_13_2012	37.41	36.35	36.66	36.6	36.64	36.55	36.58(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	10	-10	2	34	3.47	48%	-0.03	-11.3	1.49%	0	0.5	56	0
25	Jan_12_2012	37.42	36.34	36.63	36.54	36.6	36.59	36.52(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	4	0	-5	31	8.96	48%		-28.9	1.49%	0	0.4	58	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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