Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 15, 2008

Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(iShares MSCI Japan ETF)
EWJ latest price $54.2800 (1.95%) ($53.6800 - $54.3200) on Thu. May. 15, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.68% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $54.2800(1.95%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   EWJ advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EWJ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(78%)    EEM(76%)    EWG(76%)    VWO(74%)    EWY(72%)
Factors Impacting EWJ price   EWJ will decline at least -0.84% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-15%)    TIP(-5%)    GLD(8%)    LQD(21%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.84% (StdDev 1.68%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $53.1(2.22%)
10 Day Moving Average   $53.28(1.88%)
20 Day Moving Average   $52.9(2.61%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   17.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. EWJ price fluctuates within 1.61% (three month std-dev: 1.68%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 0.85%(33%) Average negative next day return: -0.64%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 1.29%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -2.59%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 4.61%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.98%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20080615

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_15_2008	50.63	52.9	53.28	53.1	53.16	53.64	54.28(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	26	70	30	12	5.38	65%	0.02	70.8	1.68%	0	1.6	65	0
2	May_14_2008	50.62	52.73	53.2	52.92	52.77	53.01	53.24(0.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	10	20	10	10	6.87	64%	0.06	75.3	1.67%	0	0.6	67	0
3	May_13_2008	50.59	52.66	53.19	52.9	52.8	52.68	52.76(0.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	0	-20	-4	12	6.42	64%	-0.02	73.3	1.67%	0	0.1	60	0
4	May_12_2008	50.6	52.54	53.21	53.1	52.98	52.54	52.72(0.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-9	-60	-20	24	2.87	64%	-0.02	66.4	1.67%	0	0.2	64	0
5	May_9_2008	50.61	52.41	53.21	53.27	53.23	52.92	52.52(-1.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-9	-40	-24	37	4.99	64%	0	59.3	1.67%	0	0.1	53	0

6	May_8_2008	50.61	52.3	53.28	53.46	53.47	53.43	53.36(0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	10	-0	-5	53	3.98	60%	0.02	56	1.67%	0	0.8	57	0
7	May_7_2008	50.6	52.13	53.1	53.46	53.52	53.54	53.12(-1.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	18	0	3	61	10.36	60%	0	51.3	1.71%	0	0.7	65	0
8	May_6_2008	50.6	51.98	52.98	53.51	53.44	53.5	53.8(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	21	0	6	64	3.18	60%	0.04	48.9	1.7%	0	1.3	62	0
9	May_5_2008	50.58	51.82	52.73	53.33	53.33	53.51	53.56(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	22	20	7	65	2.17	56%	0	47.4	1.71%	0	1.4	69	0
10	May_2_2008	50.58	51.7	52.6	53.29	53.23	53.37	53.48(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	30	20	13	81	3	56%	-0.04	56.8	1.75%	0	1.5	70	0

11	May_1_2008	50.6	51.58	52.48	53.07	53.11	53.14	53.6(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	33	10	14	89	4.67	56%	-0.04	61	1.76%	0	1.8	68	0
12	Apr_30_2008	50.62	51.44	52.22	52.63	52.91	53.14	53.12(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	30	40	13	81	4.74	56%	-0.06	61.2	1.76%	0	1.6	68	0
13	Apr_29_2008	50.65	51.32	52.08	52.37	52.48	53.09	52.88(-0.9%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	39	90	23	88	5.29	58%	-0.1	63.9	1.76%	0	1.6	66	0
14	Apr_28_2008	50.7	51.21	51.81	52.04	52.12	52.74	53.36(1.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	48	90	37	80	7.96	58%	-0.08	58.6	1.76%	0	2.2	62	0
15	Apr_25_2008	50.74	51.02	51.46	52.04	51.68	51.88	52.4(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	20	12	53	4.96	58%	-0.1	57.6	1.75%	0	1.6	54	0

16	Apr_24_2008	50.79	50.89	51.23	51.82	51.6	51.5	51.4(-0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	10	-30	-1	43	4.9	57%	-0.12	68	1.75%	0	0.6	51	0
17	Apr_23_2008	50.85	50.8	51.08	51.74	51.77	51.49	51.8(1.09%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	5	-40	-4	32	2.89	57%	-0.08	77.8	1.75%	0	1.1	54	0
18	Apr_22_2008	50.89	50.7	50.9	51.73	51.64	51.71	51.24(-1.91%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	3	0	-5	26	4.34	54%	-0.1	86.7	1.75%	0	0.6	53	0
19	Apr_21_2008	50.94	50.65	50.84	51.51	51.66	52.05	52.24(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	32	60	32	32	2.89	55%	-0.08	92.9	1.79%	0	1.8	58	0
20	Apr_18_2008	50.98	50.52	50.74	51.02	51.17	51.57	52.4(2.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	26	60	27	24	5.14	58%	-0.08	105.8	1.81%	0	2.4	67	0

21	Apr_17_2008	51.02	50.31	50.74	50.57	50.64	51.28	51(-1.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	21	90	23	13	8.02	55%	-0.1	81.4	1.81%	0	0.9	58	0
22	Apr_16_2008	51.07	50.13	50.59	50.33	50.41	50.77	51.76(3.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	32	50	36	18	5.94	54%	-0.08	50.2	1.8%	0	1.6	65	0
23	Apr_15_2008	51.11	49.98	50.48	49.97	50.41	50	50.16(0.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-4	-0	-4	-5	2.66	48%	-0.1	40.3	1.78%	0	0.2	55	0
24	Apr_14_2008	51.16	49.86	50.56	50.08	50.04	50.04	49.8(-0.64%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-9	-0	-12	1	3.39	48%	-0.1	36.4	1.81%	0	-0.1	48	0
25	Apr_11_2008	51.21	49.69	50.54	50.42	50.23	50.09	50.12(0.64%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-4	-30	-9	13	6.6	47%		30.6	1.81%	0	0.3	55	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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