Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Nov. 16, 2006

Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(iShares MSCI Japan ETF)
EWJ latest price $54.1200 (-0.81%) ($53.8000 - $54.2000) on Thu. Nov. 16, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.85% (three month average)
RSI   35
Latest Price   $54.1200(-0.81%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   EWJ advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EWJ declines -1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EWJ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(77%)    EEM(75%)    EWG(75%)    VWO(73%)    EWY(71%)
Factors Impacting EWJ price   EWJ will decline at least -0.425% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-17%)    TIP(-7%)    GLD(9%)    LQD(19%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.425% (StdDev 0.85%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

Resistance Level   $54.93
5 Day Moving Average   $54.08(0.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $54.37(-0.46%)
20 Day Moving Average   $54.93(-1.47%)
To recent high   -3.9%
To recent low   2.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. EWJ price fluctuates within 1.38% (three month std-dev: 0.85%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.78%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.56%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 2.25%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.43%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 1.26%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.67%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20061216

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_16_2006	54.25	54.93	54.37	54.08	54.09	54.22	54.12(-0.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-29	20	-12	-81	4.44	43%	0.04	-34.8	0.85%	0	-1.1	35	NAN
2	Nov_15_2006	54.23	54.98	54.47	54.08	54.04	54.49	54.56(-0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	6	60	35	-81	4.69	51%	0.06	-35.3	0.85%	0	-0.6	33	NAN
3	Nov_14_2006	54.2	55.02	54.51	54.02	53.93	53.96	54.76(2.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-10	-0	19	-95	4.73	51%	0.06	-30.1	0.9%	0	-0.4	39	NAN
4	Nov_13_2006	54.17	55.03	54.55	54.09	53.9	53.59	53.2(-1.04%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.2	-75	-50	-54	-138	4.06	41%	0.02	-27.1	0.82%	0	-2.5	23	NAN
5	Nov_10_2006	54.16	55.14	54.77	54.49	54.36	53.9	53.76(-0.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-58	-70	-40	-110	4	44%	0.04	-7.2	0.82%	0	-2.3	27	NAN

6	Nov_9_2006	54.14	55.19	54.97	54.7	54.67	54.21	53.84(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-67	-60	-57	-96	6.88	44%	0.04	1	0.83%	0	-2.5	39	NAN
7	Nov_8_2006	54.12	55.25	55.22	54.96	54.91	54.83	54.52(-1.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-36	-10	-29	-55	4.07	49%	0.06	10.1	0.82%	0	-1.5	44	NAN
8	Nov_7_2006	54.09	55.24	55.36	55.06	55.07	55.13	55.12(-0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-2	10	6	-26	3.56	45%	0.07	8	0.81%	0	-0.3	50	NAN
9	Nov_6_2006	54.05	55.22	55.43	55.08	55.09	55	55.2(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-7	-10	-3	-17	6.42	45%	0.06	10.6	0.86%	0	-0	56	NAN
10	Nov_3_2006	54.02	55.22	55.48	55.11	55.12	55.01	54.84(-0.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-20	-10	-21	-15	1.97	45%	0.06	9.6	0.85%	0	-0.7	47	NAN

11	Nov_2_2006	53.99	55.18	55.53	55.28	55.21	55.19	55.12(0.22%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-13	-10	-19	4	2.56	53%	0.07	23.4	0.86%	0	-0.1	59	NAN
12	Nov_1_2006	53.95	55.18	55.54	55.52	55.39	55.23	55(-0.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-5	-30	-15	26	3.56	53%	0.11	46.9	0.9%	0	-0.4	55	NAN
13	Oct_31_2006	53.89	55.2	55.57	55.71	55.6	55.24	55.24(-0.22%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-9	-50	-27	45	3.13	53%	0.09	64.3	0.92%	0	0.1	65	NAN
14	Oct_30_2006	53.84	55.17	55.55	55.82	55.75	55.56	55.36(-0.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-7	-30	-28	55	2.99	53%	0.07	81	0.92%	0	0.3	58	NAN
15	Oct_27_2006	53.8	55.13	55.54	55.9	55.83	55.97	55.68(-1.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	27	10	8	82	3.98	60%	0.07	94.3	0.98%	0	0.9	65	NAN

16	Oct_26_2006	53.76	55.06	55.44	55.8	55.75	55.94	56.32(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	43	20	29	83	3.85	64%	0.06	99.1	0.98%	0	2.1	64	NAN
17	Oct_25_2006	53.73	54.95	55.28	55.58	55.51	55.68	55.96(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	28	20	17	59	5.71	64%	0.02	102	0.98%	0	1.8	53	NAN
18	Oct_24_2006	53.72	54.85	55.1	55.42	55.36	55.56	55.8(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	28	20	22	45	1.93	67%	0.02	89.2	0.98%	0	1.6	57	NAN
19	Oct_23_2006	53.71	54.72	54.99	55.24	55.24	55.34	55.76(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	21	10	17	33	2.86	67%	-0.04	74.8	1%	0	1.6	60	NAN
20	Oct_20_2006	53.73	54.59	54.84	55.13	55.24	55.17	55.16(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	8	10	5	18	4.16	65%	-0.02	60	1%	0	0.8	54	NAN

21	Oct_19_2006	53.74	54.48	54.8	55.02	55.09	55.15	55.2(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	16	10	14	21	2.81	69%	0	50.8	1%	0	1	59	NAN
22	Oct_18_2006	53.74	54.4	54.81	54.93	54.96	55.01	55.2(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	15	10	11	26	3.47	69%	-0.02	47	1.03%	0	1.1	58	NAN
23	Oct_17_2006	53.75	54.32	54.78	54.73	54.79	55.03	54.88(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	15	30	12	24	5.05	69%	0.02	38.3	1.04%	0	0.8	59	NAN
24	Oct_16_2006	53.74	54.24	54.75	54.7	54.63	54.9	55.2(1.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	31	30	27	42	6.39	69%	-0.04	31.3	1.05%	0	1.4	68	NAN
25	Oct_13_2006	53.76	54.17	54.69	54.51	54.49	54.56	54.6(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	18	10	11	40	3.05	59%		24.6	1.05%	0	0.6	65	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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