Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 29, 2004

Trading Signals: EWJ Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(iShares MSCI Japan ETF)
EWJ latest price $43.6400 (0.74%) ($43.2800 - $43.8000) on Mon. Mar. 29, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.36% (three month average)
RSI   71
Latest Price   $43.6400(0.74%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   EWJ advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EWJ advances 4.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EWJ advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EEM(75%)    SPY(75%)    EWG(74%)    EWY(71%)    IWM(69%)
Factors Impacting EWJ price   EWJ will decline at least -0.68% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-23%)    SHY(-15%)    TIP(-6%)    REMX(1%)    LQD(18%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.68% (StdDev 1.36%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $42.46(2.78%)
10 Day Moving Average   $41.61(4.88%)
20 Day Moving Average   $40.44(7.91%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   16.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. EWJ price fluctuates within 3.66% (three month std-dev: 1.36%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 0.35%(33%) Average negative next day return: -2.65%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 0.49%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -2.19%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 0.66%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.3%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20040429

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_29_2004	38.18	40.44	41.61	42.46	42.7	43.34	43.64(0.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	97	120	55	223	1.94	65%	0.18	71.6	1.36%	0	2.2	71	NAN
2	Mar_26_2004	38.11	40.24	41.14	41.76	42.04	42.91	43.32(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	95	160	65	183	3.05	66%	0.18	72	1.36%	0	2.3	70	NAN
3	Mar_25_2004	38.04	40.01	40.7	41.25	41.3	42.07	42.88(2.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	74	130	51	143	2.23	66%	0.16	71.4	1.38%	0	2.4	67	NAN
4	Mar_24_2004	37.98	39.75	40.23	40.97	40.87	41.18	41.68(2.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	49	50	29	109	3.13	64%	0.11	69.9	1.35%	0	1.8	64	NAN
5	Mar_23_2004	37.94	39.55	39.95	40.86	40.8	40.54	40.8(1.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	29	-50	8	92	1.34	62%	0.08	66.2	1.34%	0	1.2	59	NAN

6	Mar_22_2004	37.91	39.41	39.8	40.62	40.81	40.56	40.12(-1.57%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	13	-30	-6	71	1.9	60%	0.08	56.3	1.33%	0	0.7	54	NAN
7	Mar_19_2004	37.88	39.31	39.73	40.38	40.64	40.56	40.76(-1.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	34	90	24	63	2.23	63%	0.11	49	1.32%	0	1.4	54	NAN
8	Mar_18_2004	37.84	39.18	39.59	40.03	40.18	41.06	41.48(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	71	160	72	68	2.3	68%	0.11	41.1	1.3%	0	2.4	68	NAN
9	Mar_17_2004	37.8	39.02	39.36	39.37	39.57	40.23	41.12(3.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	58	130	65	38	2.6	68%	0.08	26.2	1.31%	0	2.6	72	NAN
10	Mar_16_2004	37.77	38.88	39.17	38.94	38.98	39.31	39.64(1.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	18	60	20	10	1	64%	0.08	17.6	1.24%	0	1.2	67	NAN

11	Mar_15_2004	37.74	38.85	39.16	38.88	38.9	38.91	38.92(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	7	0	3	20	1.87	62%	0.08	22.9	1.22%	0	0.1	62	NAN
12	Mar_12_2004	37.71	38.82	39.27	38.98	39.02	38.65	39(2.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-4	-60	-18	39	2.65	62%	0.08	27.6	1.22%	0	0.3	57	NAN
13	Mar_11_2004	37.68	38.78	39.27	39.08	39.18	38.89	38.16(-2.05%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	-15	-40	-37	51	2.36	59%	0.03	32.6	1.2%	0	-0.9	54	NAN
14	Mar_10_2004	37.67	38.8	39.26	39.33	39.41	39.39	38.96(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	11	0	-10	75	3.6	63%	0	50.3	1.18%	0	0.2	56	NAN
15	Mar_9_2004	37.67	38.77	39.15	39.43	39.47	39.48	39.36(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	20	0	1	78	1.41	63%	0.03	51.4	1.19%	0	0.9	57	NAN

16	Mar_8_2004	37.66	38.7	39.01	39.48	39.43	39.44	39.4(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	9	-0	-9	64	1.83	63%	0.03	47.7	1.2%	0	1	52	NAN
17	Mar_5_2004	37.65	38.64	38.9	39.61	39.5	39.47	39.52(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	25	-10	6	80	1.7	63%	0.03	53.2	1.2%	0	1.3	60	NAN
18	Mar_4_2004	37.64	38.56	38.75	39.47	39.58	39.42	39.4(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	28	-20	13	74	1.87	63%	0.05	43.2	1.2%	0	1.3	61	NAN
19	Mar_3_2004	37.62	38.47	38.66	39.17	39.4	39.53	39.48(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	40	16	54	1.73	63%	0	24.9	1.2%	0	1.6	58	NAN
20	Mar_2_2004	37.62	38.42	38.56	38.82	39	39.75	39.6(-1.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	48	150	48	46	3.16	63%	0.05	6.9	1.21%	0	1.9	61	NAN

21	Mar_1_2004	37.6	38.38	38.49	38.46	38.51	39.27	40.04(3.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.9	64	140	70	44	3.75	67%	0.05	-16.8	1.2%	0	3	67	NAN
22	Feb_27_2004	37.58	38.29	38.3	38.11	38	38.26	38.84(2.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	24	40	31	3	1.8	63%	0.03	-51.4	1.19%	0	1.3	54	NAN
23	Feb_26_2004	37.57	38.28	38.23	37.95	37.92	38.26	37.88(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-12	-30	-8	-23	1.95	59%	0.03	-78.4	1.16%	0	-1	51	NAN
24	Feb_25_2004	37.56	38.31	38.29	38.07	38.01	37.75	37.72(-0.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-26	-50	-30	-12	1.55	59%	0	-83.8	1.16%	0	-1.6	54	NAN
25	Feb_24_2004	37.56	38.38	38.35	38.26	38.26	38.1	37.84(-1.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-18	-30	-24	-1	1.72	63%		-70.2	1.16%	0	-1.4	43	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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