Trading Signals: EWI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Sep. 21, 2009

Trading Signals: EWI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF)
EWI latest price $40.3200 (-1.75%) ($39.0200 - $40.3400) on Mon. Sep. 21, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.66% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $40.3200(-1.75%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   EWI advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EWI advances 4.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EWI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWP(91%)    EWG(89%)    SPY(75%)    EEM(74%)    VWO(71%)
Factors Impacting EWI price   EWI will decline at least -0.83% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-35%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-8%)    GLD(10%)    LQD(11%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.83% (StdDev 1.66%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1%

5 Day Moving Average   $40.8(-1.18%)
10 Day Moving Average   $40.26(0.15%)
20 Day Moving Average   $39.09(3.15%)
To recent high   -2.3%
To recent low   33.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. EWI price fluctuates within 3.48% (three month std-dev: 1.66%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 2.05%(80%) Average negative next day return: -0.28%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 2%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 2.98%(80%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.39%(20%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20091021

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_21_2009	34.76	39.09	40.26	40.8	40.77	40.51	40.32(-1.75%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	24	-50	-17	148	0.11	54%	0.29	87.9	1.66%	0	0.9	64	0
2	Sep_18_2009	34.66	38.95	40.04	40.78	40.86	41.05	41.04(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	51	40	14	161	0.05	57%	0.32	89.8	1.64%	0	1.5	67	0
3	Sep_17_2009	34.55	38.72	39.68	40.53	40.55	41.03	40.94(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	53	80	22	144	0.08	57%	0.32	83.4	1.64%	0	1.6	65	0
4	Sep_16_2009	34.44	38.47	39.27	40.32	40.28	40.67	41.28(2.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	59	60	36	128	0.05	57%	0.38	78.7	1.65%	0	2	69	0
5	Sep_15_2009	34.31	38.2	38.84	39.94	39.93	40.07	40.44(0.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	37	20	18	93	0.1	49%	0.35	74.7	1.66%	0	1.7	66	0

6	Sep_14_2009	34.19	37.94	38.6	39.63	39.72	39.9	40.18(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	36	40	21	81	0.19	49%	0.32	63.7	1.73%	0	1.6	68	0
7	Sep_11_2009	34.08	37.75	38.4	39.18	39.45	39.8	39.82(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	42	80	32	72	0.12	49%	0.32	60.8	1.74%	0	1.6	68	0
8	Sep_10_2009	33.97	37.6	38.26	38.68	38.88	39.53	39.9(1.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	49	130	42	70	0.12	49%	0.38	58.2	1.74%	0	1.9	74	0
9	Sep_9_2009	33.84	37.41	38.08	38.04	38.28	39.09	39.36(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	53	170	51	59	0.02	49%	0.36	47.8	1.74%	0	1.8	74	0
10	Sep_8_2009	33.72	37.23	37.94	37.57	38.28	38.23	38.9(2.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	31	120	26	46	0.1	49%	0.51	36.9	1.74%	0	1.6	74	0

11	Sep_4_2009	33.55	37.08	37.81	37.43	37.6	37.47	37.94(1.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	21	-10	10	55	0.14	46%	0.3	34.5	1.72%	0	0.9	74	0
12	Sep_3_2009	33.45	36.99	37.76	37.53	37.69	36.97	37.3(1.69%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-15	-120	-36	50	0.16	43%	0.27	40.7	1.71%	0	0.3	56	0
13	Sep_2_2009	33.36	36.92	37.69	37.79	38.02	37.73	36.68(-0.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-12	-40	-36	59	0.12	43%	0.3	52	1.74%	0	-0.2	49	0
14	Sep_1_2009	33.26	36.9	37.65	38.1	38.44	38.41	37.04(-3.04%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	22	20	-1	90	0.37	43%	0.27	68.1	1.75%	0	0.1	56	0
15	Aug_31_2009	33.17	36.85	37.55	38.32	38.3	38.3	38.2(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	24	-0	-3	105	0.14	47%	0.15	81.2	1.73%	0	1.3	68	0

16	Aug_28_2009	33.12	36.75	37.27	38.23	38.34	38.48	38.42(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	37	30	15	102	0.09	47%	0.36	84.5	1.73%	0	1.6	65	0
17	Aug_27_2009	33	36.59	37.07	38.02	38.15	38.29	38.6(0.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	41	40	21	99	0.12	47%	0.36	83.4	1.75%	0	2	68	0
18	Aug_26_2009	32.88	36.4	36.9	37.58	37.85	38.2	38.26(0.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	42	90	27	88	0.02	47%	0.37	76.2	1.78%	0	2	66	0
19	Aug_25_2009	32.76	36.22	36.69	37.14	37.37	38.01	38.14(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	47	140	39	72	0.02	47%	0.37	69.8	1.8%	0	2.1	63	0
20	Aug_24_2009	32.64	36.04	36.44	36.67	36.75	37.5	37.72(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	47	150	46	50	0.14	47%	0.34	65.3	1.81%	0	2.1	62	0

21	Aug_21_2009	32.53	35.9	36.27	36.16	36.19	36.73	37.36(2.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	29	110	33	18	0.02	47%	0.31	61.6	1.8%	0	2	57	0
22	Aug_20_2009	32.43	35.78	36.11	36	35.72	35.99	36.4(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	4	30	4	4	0.03	43%	0.34	72.1	1.78%	0	0.9	60	0
23	Aug_19_2009	32.32	35.69	36.06	36.13	35.82	35.65	36.06(0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	3	-60	-1	16	0.04	43%	0.34	80	1.79%	0	0.5	60	0
24	Aug_18_2009	32.21	35.6	36.07	36.18	36.12	35.44	35.8(1.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-6	-140	-17	26	0.03	51%	0.37	84.9	1.79%	0	0.2	62	0
25	Aug_17_2009	32.09	35.52	36.1	36.17	36.26	35.98	35.2(-3.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-14	-50	-29	31	0.02	51%		93.5	1.89%	0	-0.4	58	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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