Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Mar. 16, 2016

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $242.2000 (5.4%) ($229.5000 - $243.7000) on Wed. Mar. 16, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.85% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $242.2000(5.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 9.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(92%)    OIH(90%)    XOP(86%)    IWD(74%)    IVE(72%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3.425% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-24%)    TLT(-24%)    UUP(-17%)    SHY(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.425% (StdDev 6.85%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $231.8(4.49%)
10 Day Moving Average   $226.87(6.76%)
20 Day Moving Average   $208.02(16.43%)
To recent high   -5.6%
To recent low   67.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.05%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.05% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 10.41% (three month std-dev: 6.85%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 3.06%(33%) Average negative next day return: -4.46%(67%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 3.61%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -6.75%(33%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 9.14%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.07%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160416

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_16_2016	242.28	208.02	226.87	231.8	230.94	231.01	242.2(5.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	71	-10	58	110	0.7	49%	-0.3	77.5	6.85%	0	1.6	73	0
2	Mar_15_2016	243.01	205.33	223.4	227.14	225.74	227.06	229.8(-0.65%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	10	20	-15	83	0.55	50%	-0.4	81	6.82%	0	1.2	72	0
3	Mar_14_2016	243.99	202.56	219.91	222.88	224.09	230.86	231.3(-2.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	68	230	54	109	0.52	50%	-0.5	77.1	6.89%	0	1.4	74	0
4	Mar_11_2016	245.22	199.44	215.05	224.28	221.88	224.43	236.3(7.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	72	50	58	112	0.64	48%	-0.49	78.7	6.88%	0	1.8	63	0
5	Mar_10_2016	246.43	195.47	209.98	221.68	221.26	217.31	219.4(0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	5	-130	-20	78	0.83	47%	-0.48	67.7	6.96%	0	1.2	65	0

6	Mar_9_2016	247.62	192.48	206.43	221.24	222.76	219.34	218.9(4.99%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-5	-90	-32	75	0.43	47%	-0.53	58.6	6.97%	0	1.2	64	0
7	Mar_8_2016	248.95	189.56	202.79	218.96	221	225.21	208.5(-12.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	39	160	22	90	0.54	47%	-0.57	53.2	6.96%	0	0.9	58	0
8	Mar_7_2016	250.37	187.76	199.77	215.8	215.34	226.18	238.3(6.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	134	350	134	132	0.84	47%	-0.52	45.8	6.78%	0	2.4	73	0
9	Mar_4_2016	251.69	184.41	195.14	204.2	204.52	216.79	223.3(2.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	136	420	142	117	0.84	47%	-0.58	28.9	6.88%	0	2.2	72	0
10	Mar_3_2016	253.17	182.44	190.86	196.62	195.01	204.5	217.2(4.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	120	320	125	103	0.78	46%	-0.52	20.5	6.88%	0	2.4	75	0

11	Mar_2_2016	254.5	180.84	187.28	189.68	189.28	192.26	207.5(7.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	77	100	77	78	0.74	45%	-0.53	16.3	6.88%	0	2.1	72	0
12	Mar_1_2016	255.85	178.93	185.33	184.54	184.64	185.51	192.7(6.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	23	30	13	53	0.57	43%	-0.63	5.5	6.89%	0	1.2	68	0
13	Feb_29_2016	257.48	178.66	183.5	181.32	181.5	186.3	180.3(-2.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	21	190	13	46	0.48	43%	-0.73	12.1	6.78%	0	0.2	55	0
14	Feb_26_2016	259.37	179.55	182.57	184.58	181.51	183.76	185.4(1.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	40	46	67	0.5	43%	-0.73	27.5	6.78%	0	0.5	55	0
15	Feb_25_2016	261.29	179.46	179.92	184.08	183.15	176.7	182.5(0.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-7	-260	-18	26	0.55	43%	-0.66	37	6.83%	0	0.3	47	0

16	Feb_24_2016	263.03	178.82	177.72	184.38	182.97	179.26	181.8(2.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-77	-160	-96	-18	0.49	44%	-0.61	47	6.83%	0	0.2	47	0
17	Feb_23_2016	264.64	178.32	175.7	186.2	186.82	189.61	176.6(-10.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.8	22	110	20	29	0.51	44%	-0.54	57.2	6.88%	0	-0.1	54	0
18	Feb_22_2016	266.09	177.34	175.37	185.72	187.16	186.69	196.6(7.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	10	52	33	0.47	46%	-0.36	47	6.78%	0	1.5	52	0
19	Feb_19_2016	267.06	176.34	173.04	180.22	181.98	184.03	182.9(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-6	110	-3	-16	0.47	44%	-0.29	35.3	6.71%	0	0.5	43	0
20	Feb_18_2016	267.84	175.17	173.38	175	178.73	187.63	184(-3.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	84	410	107	15	0.54	44%	-0.28	20.8	6.72%	0	0.7	51	0

21	Feb_17_2016	268.59	173.32	173.7	169.96	169.47	179.93	190.9(9.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	89	420	114	13	0.59	44%	-0.19	-0.6	6.75%	0	1.2	59	0
22	Feb_16_2016	269.1	171.62	171.57	163.88	163.09	169.83	174.2(3.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	68	270	95	-12	0.54	45%	-0.27	-17.8	6.63%	0	0.2	53	0
23	Feb_12_2016	269.82	171.33	172.96	163.7	160.18	159.02	169.1(7.84%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	3	-120	14	-30	0.73	43%	-0.39	-23.8	6.7%	0	-0.2	59	0
24	Feb_11_2016	270.88	172.05	175.9	165.1	160.88	156.36	156.8(-1.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-72	-270	-78	-54	1.2	41%	-0.42	-24	6.65%	0	-1.1	46	0
25	Feb_10_2016	272.02	172.51	178.86	171.58	167.28	161.33	158.8(-1.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-63	-320	-76	-23	0.39	41%		-26.5	6.69%	0	-1	54	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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