Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Mar. 4, 2016

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $223.3000 (2.81%) ($213.5000 - $232.5000) on Fri. Mar. 4, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.88% (three month average)
RSI   72
Latest Price   $223.3000(2.81%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 3.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 6.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(92%)    OIH(90%)    XOP(86%)    IWD(74%)    IVE(72%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3.44% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-24%)    TLT(-24%)    UUP(-17%)    SHY(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.44% (StdDev 6.88%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $204.2(9.35%)
10 Day Moving Average   $195.14(14.43%)
20 Day Moving Average   $184.41(21.09%)
To recent high   -22.9%
To recent low   54.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.05%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.05% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 9.38% (three month std-dev: 6.88%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.34%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0.22%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.02%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160404

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_4_2016	251.69	184.41	195.14	204.2	204.52	216.79	223.3(2.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	136	420	142	117	0.84	47%	-0.58	28.9	6.88%	0	2.2	72	0
2	Mar_3_2016	253.17	182.44	190.86	196.62	195.01	204.5	217.2(4.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	120	320	125	103	0.78	46%	-0.52	20.5	6.88%	0	2.4	75	0
3	Mar_2_2016	254.5	180.84	187.28	189.68	189.28	192.26	207.5(7.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	77	100	77	78	0.74	45%	-0.53	16.3	6.88%	0	2.1	72	0
4	Mar_1_2016	255.85	178.93	185.33	184.54	184.64	185.51	192.7(6.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	23	30	13	53	0.57	43%	-0.63	5.5	6.89%	0	1.2	68	0
5	Feb_29_2016	257.48	178.66	183.5	181.32	181.5	186.3	180.3(-2.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	21	190	13	46	0.48	43%	-0.73	12.1	6.78%	0	0.2	55	0

6	Feb_26_2016	259.37	179.55	182.57	184.58	181.51	183.76	185.4(1.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	40	46	67	0.5	43%	-0.73	27.5	6.78%	0	0.5	55	0
7	Feb_25_2016	261.29	179.46	179.92	184.08	183.15	176.7	182.5(0.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-7	-260	-18	26	0.55	43%	-0.66	37	6.83%	0	0.3	47	0
8	Feb_24_2016	263.03	178.82	177.72	184.38	182.97	179.26	181.8(2.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-77	-160	-96	-18	0.49	44%	-0.61	47	6.83%	0	0.2	47	0
9	Feb_23_2016	264.64	178.32	175.7	186.2	186.82	189.61	176.6(-10.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.8	22	110	20	29	0.51	44%	-0.54	57.2	6.88%	0	-0.1	54	0
10	Feb_22_2016	266.09	177.34	175.37	185.72	187.16	186.69	196.6(7.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	10	52	33	0.47	46%	-0.36	47	6.78%	0	1.5	52	0

11	Feb_19_2016	267.06	176.34	173.04	180.22	181.98	184.03	182.9(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-6	110	-3	-16	0.47	44%	-0.29	35.3	6.71%	0	0.5	43	0
12	Feb_18_2016	267.84	175.17	173.38	175	178.73	187.63	184(-3.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	84	410	107	15	0.54	44%	-0.28	20.8	6.72%	0	0.7	51	0
13	Feb_17_2016	268.59	173.32	173.7	169.96	169.47	179.93	190.9(9.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	89	420	114	13	0.59	44%	-0.19	-0.6	6.75%	0	1.2	59	0
14	Feb_16_2016	269.1	171.62	171.57	163.88	163.09	169.83	174.2(3.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	68	270	95	-12	0.54	45%	-0.27	-17.8	6.63%	0	0.2	53	0
15	Feb_12_2016	269.82	171.33	172.96	163.7	160.18	159.02	169.1(7.84%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	3	-120	14	-30	0.73	43%	-0.39	-23.8	6.7%	0	-0.2	59	0

16	Feb_11_2016	270.88	172.05	175.9	165.1	160.88	156.36	156.8(-1.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-72	-270	-78	-54	1.2	41%	-0.42	-24	6.65%	0	-1.1	46	0
17	Feb_10_2016	272.02	172.51	178.86	171.58	167.28	161.33	158.8(-1.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-63	-320	-76	-23	0.39	41%	-0.45	-26.5	6.69%	0	-1	54	0
18	Feb_9_2016	273.26	173.41	180.23	177.84	175.12	165.4	160.5(-7.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-61	-430	-82	4	0.53	41%	-0.48	-34.4	6.69%	0	-0.9	59	0
19	Feb_8_2016	274.58	174.19	181.66	180.02	179.47	173.23	173.3(-1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-71	-250	-99	12	0.53	42%	-0.41	-50	6.65%	0	-0.1	58	0
20	Feb_5_2016	275.71	174.78	180.13	183.4	180.89	184.84	176.1(-6.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-9	110	-27	46	0.56	42%	-0.49	-57.5	6.65%	0	0.1	55	0

21	Feb_4_2016	277.07	175.6	180.47	188.31	183.67	185.71	189.2(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	74	0	66	98	0.71	43%	-0.44	-57.2	6.61%	0	0.9	52	0
22	Feb_3_2016	278.29	176.35	177.49	187.43	183.97	176.95	190.1(10.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-11	-320	-33	55	0.73	45%	-0.34	-61.6	6.61%	0	0.9	58	0
23	Feb_2_2016	279.25	178.31	173.11	187.43	185.07	181.63	171.4(-9.88%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-47	-100	-68	15	0.54	44%	-0.38	-53.3	6.53%	0	-0.3	51	0
24	Feb_1_2016	280.32	181.23	171.88	183.21	184.26	190.98	190.2(-5.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	59	270	59	58	0.68	46%	-0.33	-49.2	6.51%	0	0.4	55	0
25	Jan_29_2016	281.26	183.12	169.47	176.03	178.31	188.52	200.64(8.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	107	440	125	53	0.7	46%		-59.2	6.49%	0	0.7	54	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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