Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Feb. 22, 2016

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $196.6000 (7.49%) ($190.7000 - $199.2000) on Mon. Feb. 22, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.78% (three month average)
RSI   52
Latest Price   $196.6000(7.49%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 3.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(92%)    OIH(90%)    XOP(86%)    IWD(74%)    IVE(72%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3.39% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-24%)    TLT(-24%)    UUP(-17%)    SHY(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.39% (StdDev 6.78%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $185.72(5.86%)
10 Day Moving Average   $175.37(12.11%)
20 Day Moving Average   $177.34(10.86%)
To recent high   -44.1%
To recent low   35.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.05%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.05% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.47% (three month std-dev: 6.78%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 8 Average positive next day return: 1.6%(63%) Average negative next day return: -1.43%(38%) Sample size 8 Average positive next three day return: 7.89%(25%) Average negative next three day return: -3.7%(75%) Sample size 8 Average positive next weekly return: 7.77%(38%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.33%(63%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160322

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_22_2016	266.09	177.34	175.37	185.72	187.16	186.69	196.6(7.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	10	52	33	0.47	46%	-0.36	47	6.78%	0	1.5	52	INF
2	Feb_19_2016	267.06	176.34	173.04	180.22	181.98	184.03	182.9(-0.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-6	110	-3	-16	0.47	44%	-0.29	35.3	6.71%	0	0.5	43	INF
3	Feb_18_2016	267.84	175.17	173.38	175	178.73	187.63	184(-3.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	84	410	107	15	0.54	44%	-0.28	20.8	6.72%	0	0.7	51	INF
4	Feb_17_2016	268.59	173.32	173.7	169.96	169.47	179.93	190.9(9.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	89	420	114	13	0.59	44%	-0.19	-0.6	6.75%	0	1.2	59	INF
5	Feb_16_2016	269.1	171.62	171.57	163.88	163.09	169.83	174.2(3.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	68	270	95	-12	0.54	45%	-0.27	-17.8	6.63%	0	0.2	53	INF

6	Feb_12_2016	269.82	171.33	172.96	163.7	160.18	159.02	169.1(7.84%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	3	-120	14	-30	0.73	43%	-0.39	-23.8	6.7%	0	-0.2	59	INF
7	Feb_11_2016	270.88	172.05	175.9	165.1	160.88	156.36	156.8(-1.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-72	-270	-78	-54	1.2	41%	-0.42	-24	6.65%	0	-1.1	46	INF
8	Feb_10_2016	272.02	172.51	178.86	171.58	167.28	161.33	158.8(-1.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-63	-320	-76	-23	0.39	41%	-0.45	-26.5	6.69%	0	-1	54	INF
9	Feb_9_2016	273.26	173.41	180.23	177.84	175.12	165.4	160.5(-7.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-61	-430	-82	4	0.53	41%	-0.48	-34.4	6.69%	0	-0.9	59	INF
10	Feb_8_2016	274.58	174.19	181.66	180.02	179.47	173.23	173.3(-1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-71	-250	-99	12	0.53	42%	-0.41	-50	6.65%	0	-0.1	58	INF

11	Feb_5_2016	275.71	174.78	180.13	183.4	180.89	184.84	176.1(-6.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-9	110	-27	46	0.56	42%	-0.49	-57.5	6.65%	0	0.1	55	INF
12	Feb_4_2016	277.07	175.6	180.47	188.31	183.67	185.71	189.2(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	74	0	66	98	0.71	43%	-0.44	-57.2	6.61%	0	0.9	52	INF
13	Feb_3_2016	278.29	176.35	177.49	187.43	183.97	176.95	190.1(10.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-11	-320	-33	55	0.73	45%	-0.34	-61.6	6.61%	0	0.9	58	INF
14	Feb_2_2016	279.25	178.31	173.11	187.43	185.07	181.63	171.4(-9.88%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-47	-100	-68	15	0.54	44%	-0.38	-53.3	6.53%	0	-0.3	51	INF
15	Feb_1_2016	280.32	181.23	171.88	183.21	184.26	190.98	190.2(-5.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	59	270	59	58	0.68	46%	-0.33	-49.2	6.51%	0	0.4	55	INF

16	Jan_29_2016	281.26	183.12	169.47	176.03	178.31	188.52	200.64(8.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	107	440	125	53	0.7	46%	-0.33	-59.2	6.49%	0	0.7	54	INF
17	Jan_28_2016	282.18	184.31	167.34	171.7	171.32	177.54	184.8(9.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	76	250	94	22	0.78	45%	-0.37	-57.8	6.39%	0	0	48	INF
18	Jan_27_2016	283.22	186.83	165.02	166.42	169.25	168.1	169(-1.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	33	0	55	-32	0.97	43%	-0.48	-55.8	6.33%	0	-0.6	41	INF
19	Jan_26_2016	284.58	190.06	165.53	161.56	164.55	165.11	171.4(11.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-32	80	-10	-99	0.5	42%	-0.41	-54.1	6.34%	0	-0.6	37	INF
20	Jan_25_2016	285.76	193.83	165.7	158.78	159	170.41	154.3(-13.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	8	510	48	-111	0.78	39%	-0.49	-52.3	6.21%	0	-1.2	32	INF

21	Jan_22_2016	287.16	198.87	168.85	161.56	158.65	163.98	179(13.01%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	89	180	148	-88	0.98	41%	-0.45	-50.9	5.99%	0	-0.6	36	INF
22	Jan_21_2016	288.46	201.27	170.07	162.7	156	147.6	158.4(9.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-112	-500	-83	-200	0.93	38%	-0.51	-50.4	5.78%	0	-1.3	29	INF
23	Jan_20_2016	289.94	204.52	174.93	163.7	161.96	153.33	144.7(-8.13%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-173	-400	-150	-240	1.11	35%	-0.53	-50.8	5.63%	0	-1.7	20	INF
24	Jan_19_2016	291.49	208.54	183.96	169.88	169.21	164.4	157.5(-6.36%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-109	-210	-80	-195	0.56	36%	-0.7	-53	5.57%	0	-1.6	24	INF
25	Jan_15_2016	293.54	212.47	191.55	173.32	172.35	170.59	168.2(-8.93%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-90	-90	-59	-183	0.73	38%		-60.9	5.52%	0	-1.5	24	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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