Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 19, 2015

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $623.6000 (-1.53%) ($585.3000 - $634.7100) on Thu. Feb. 19, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.69% (three month average)
RSI   76
Latest Price   $623.6000(-1.53%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 7.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IVE(73%)    VYM(70%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.845% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-28%)    TLT(-25%)    UUP(-14%)    IGOV(-5%)    SHY(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.845% (StdDev 5.69%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 5%

5 Day Moving Average   $634.98(-1.79%)
10 Day Moving Average   $617.8(0.94%)
20 Day Moving Average   $583.83(6.81%)
To recent high   -27.9%
To recent low   34.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.03%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.03% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 7.73% (three month std-dev: 5.69%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.14%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.28%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 1%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.46%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150319

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_19_2015	664.41	583.83	617.8	634.98	633.39	623.35	623.6(-1.53%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-121	-120	-165	10	0.36	47%	-0.43	78.1	5.69%	0	0.9	76	INF
2	Feb_18_2015	667.28	579.72	613.34	628.16	633.76	642.34	633.3(-3.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	77	120	65	111	0.36	47%	-0.51	82.1	5.7%	0	1.2	78	INF
3	Feb_17_2015	670.68	573.69	610.34	621.78	620.24	643.42	655.8(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	222	250	235	182	0.42	47%	-1.02	80.5	5.68%	0	1.8	64	INF
4	Feb_13_2015	677.62	566.23	600.65	611.2	607.26	625.19	650.7(6.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	273	190	298	199	0.43	47%	-0.48	75.3	5.64%	0	2	63	INF
5	Feb_12_2015	680.88	556.94	587.03	600.92	599.33	597.05	611.5(3.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	82	-30	77	98	0.36	44%	-0.6	58.2	5.59%	0	1.3	63	INF

6	Feb_11_2015	685.02	550.56	576.37	598.68	598.05	589.33	589.5(-1.98%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-94	-110	-128	7	0.38	44%	-0.63	52.6	5.58%	0	0.9	58	INF
7	Feb_10_2015	689.37	545.13	567.64	595.94	601.71	601.61	601.4(-0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-7	30	-22	40	0.39	44%	-0.62	45.9	5.58%	0	1.3	61	INF
8	Feb_9_2015	693.68	539.57	563.25	596.7	597.17	606.77	602.9(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	73	110	68	88	0.27	44%	-0.69	42.9	5.58%	0	1.4	66	INF
9	Feb_6_2015	698.48	535.94	558.68	588.04	593.72	601.81	599.3(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	205	120	223	151	0.32	44%	-0.69	31.3	5.6%	0	1.5	66	INF
10	Feb_5_2015	703.34	533.08	552.31	570.58	577.96	587.56	600.3(4.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	149	160	158	120	0.35	46%	-0.71	14.5	5.63%	0	1.7	72	INF

11	Feb_4_2015	708.35	528.57	546.73	550.42	554.03	585.64	575.8(-4.86%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	244	420	273	157	0.52	45%	-0.76	-12.6	5.64%	0	1.3	66	INF
12	Feb_3_2015	713.81	525.21	543.04	534.5	533.56	568.35	605.2(8.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	438	450	503	243	0.65	43%	-0.66	-41.1	5.66%	0	2.3	71	INF
13	Feb_2_2015	718.56	521.25	533.3	525.77	516.35	522.43	559.6(9.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	174	30	193	115	0.43	40%	-0.69	-70.1	5.59%	0	1.3	63	INF
14	Jan_30_2015	723.54	523.24	528.26	526.31	519.71	498.78	512(2.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-139	-320	-174	-35	0.66	39%	-0.82	-60.7	5.51%	0	-0.3	47	INF
15	Jan_29_2015	729.54	527.51	524.34	531.69	531.81	510.28	499.5(0.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-292	-280	-351	-115	0.4	39%	-0.83	-60.4	5.5%	0	-0.8	42	INF

16	Jan_28_2015	735.64	533.11	523.38	541.87	544.23	540.64	496.2(-11.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-119	-30	-149	-28	0.6	42%	-0.84	-48.6	5.5%	0	-0.9	49	INF
17	Jan_27_2015	741.87	539.63	522.34	551.05	549.24	553.34	561.54(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	89	40	93	75	0.3	43%	-0.76	-39.4	5.39%	0	0.5	59	INF
18	Jan_26_2015	747.58	542.32	515.13	541.2	542.89	547.81	562.3(4.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	88	70	98	57	0.23	43%	-0.83	-37.6	5.44%	0	0.4	54	INF
19	Jan_23_2015	753.84	544.98	511.87	530.76	530.84	545.14	538.9(-2.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	126	190	151	51	0.27	45%	-0.82	-34.7	5.41%	0	-0.1	39	INF
20	Jan_22_2015	760.09	549.65	512.39	515.86	517.53	537.98	550.4(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	239	290	292	80	0.35	44%	-0.87	-29.5	5.45%	0	0	42	INF

21	Jan_21_2015	766.73	552.74	508.5	502.36	501.95	516.53	542.1(5.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	213	200	271	38	0.37	46%	-0.86	-23.6	5.49%	0	-0.2	39	INF
22	Jan_20_2015	773.38	557.03	505.11	489.62	486.57	497.08	512.3(0.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	69	130	111	-59	0.47	45%	-0.95	-17.7	5.56%	0	-0.7	32	INF
23	Jan_16_2015	780.8	560.82	507.17	485.48	482.78	487.38	510.1(9.84%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	41	50	85	-90	0.5	46%	-0.92	-14.5	5.55%	0	-0.8	33	INF
24	Jan_15_2015	788.03	563.32	516.45	491.06	485.18	476.06	464.4(-3.83%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-128	-170	-114	-169	0.62	43%	-0.97	-10.2	5.44%	0	-1.6	22	INF
25	Jan_14_2015	795.74	565.57	530.28	508.48	499.96	478.19	482.9(0.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-240	-360	-249	-212	0.68	42%		-9.2	5.43%	0	-1.5	22	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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