Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Sep. 16, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $1105.2000 (3.67%) ($1058.5000 - $1125.4000) on Tue. Sep. 16, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.6% (three month average)
RSI   33
Latest Price   $1105.2000(3.67%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -5.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    XLB(67%)    IWM(66%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.3% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-30%)    TLT(-26%)    UUP(-13%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.3% (StdDev 2.6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.9%

Resistance Level   $1153.37
5 Day Moving Average   $1079.82(2.35%)
10 Day Moving Average   $1110.19(-0.45%)
20 Day Moving Average   $1153.37(-4.18%)
To recent high   -18.2%
To recent low   6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.77% (three month std-dev: 2.6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 1.98%(25%) Average negative next day return: -1.95%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 1.1%(25%) Average negative next three day return: -4.39%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 1.92%(25%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.54%(75%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_16_2014	1176.18	1153.37	1110.19	1079.82	1070.6	1069.95	1105.2(3.67%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	179	-30	249	-30	0.05	41%	0.05	-32.1	2.6%	0	-0.9	33	0
2	Sep_15_2014	1175.62	1156.21	1117.67	1078.86	1069.53	1057.68	1066.1(2.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-403	-100	-434	-310	0.04	39%	0.02	-33.8	2.57%	0	-1.7	31	0
3	Sep_12_2014	1175.4	1160.82	1133.87	1088.76	1083.51	1071.25	1043.1(-4.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-373	-90	-404	-278	0.04	41%	-0.02	-32.3	2.58%	0	-2.4	34	0
4	Sep_11_2014	1175.6	1165.67	1151.1	1113.96	1099.85	1081.38	1093.4(0.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-459	-160	-513	-295	0.04	43%	0.03	-19.7	2.52%	0	-1.7	36	0
5	Sep_10_2014	1175.29	1168.65	1163.09	1124.34	1118.36	1095.77	1091.3(-0.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-627	-160	-715	-362	0.04	43%	0.04	-11.8	2.53%	0	-2	36	0

6	Sep_9_2014	1174.82	1171.34	1176.32	1145.1	1139.81	1118.33	1100.4(-1.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-644	-150	-743	-345	0.04	43%	0.04	5.1	2.53%	0	-1.9	39	0
7	Sep_8_2014	1174.32	1174.61	1187.11	1162.32	1163.79	1140.95	1115.6(-4.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-550	-130	-641	-278	0.05	43%	-0.05	15.7	2.52%	0	-1.8	47	0
8	Sep_5_2014	1174.92	1177.06	1193.52	1185.72	1182.4	1161.3	1169.1(2.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-619	-130	-731	-284	0.03	47%	0.12	42.2	2.48%	0	-0.3	57	0
9	Sep_4_2014	1173.5	1174.09	1196.25	1194.16	1200.15	1186.64	1145.3(-4.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-387	-60	-464	-154	0.04	47%	0.13	36.4	2.47%	0	-0.8	58	0
10	Sep_3_2014	1172.03	1173.37	1201.5	1207.44	1209.56	1203.5	1195.1(0.72%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-200	-30	-252	-43	0.02	50%	0.2	30.5	2.41%	0	0.6	62	0

11	Sep_2_2014	1169.69	1169.45	1200.55	1212.4	1212.63	1213.66	1186.5(-3.74%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-53	10	-85	42	0.03	50%	0.47	15	2.42%	0	0.5	63	0
12	Aug_29_2014	1164.27	1169.43	1198.12	1215.32	1216.04	1215.63	1232.6(1.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	191	-0	200	163	0.02	54%	0.29	7.2	2.35%	0	1.7	65	0
13	Aug_28_2014	1160.88	1164.34	1189.54	1202.56	1207.8	1211.59	1211.3(-0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	15	40	-2	67	0.01	54%	0.24	-22.1	2.36%	0	1.4	62	0
14	Aug_27_2014	1158.12	1161.65	1180.99	1198.96	1200.06	1216.46	1211.7(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	312	100	346	208	0.01	54%	0.25	-41.5	2.36%	0	1.4	72	0
15	Aug_26_2014	1155.23	1162.51	1173.99	1194.84	1193.84	1204.01	1219.9(1.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	481	60	545	288	0.01	54%	0.28	-46.9	2.36%	0	1.4	67	0

16	Aug_25_2014	1151.99	1163.89	1165.04	1187.48	1185.3	1183.65	1201.1(2.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	66	-20	58	89	0.02	54%	0.22	-49	2.37%	0	0.8	66	0
17	Aug_22_2014	1149.42	1166.78	1160.15	1178.5	1181.2	1183.67	1168.8(-2.05%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	9	20	-4	48	0.03	52%	0.19	-47.3	2.35%	0	0	46	0
18	Aug_21_2014	1147.29	1172.01	1158.78	1173.96	1176.3	1186.95	1193.3(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	319	70	361	194	0.01	54%	0.22	-41.2	2.33%	0	0.4	58	0
19	Aug_20_2014	1144.72	1177.23	1149.68	1159.7	1162.81	1178.73	1191.1(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	379	100	440	196	0.02	54%	0.23	-39.1	2.36%	0	0.2	53	0
20	Aug_19_2014	1142.06	1182.43	1142.57	1149.88	1150.58	1165.64	1183.1(2.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	420	90	499	183	0.02	54%	0.24	-41.1	2.36%	0	0	42	0

21	Aug_18_2014	1139.32	1187.05	1135.38	1139.68	1143.13	1146.9	1156.2(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	245	30	305	63	0.02	54%	0.22	-42.2	2.35%	0	-0.4	37	0
22	Aug_15_2014	1136.86	1192.03	1138.01	1139.64	1138.22	1135.51	1146.1(2.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-170	-20	-177	-148	0.04	52%	0.24	-42.8	2.35%	0	-0.6	35	0
23	Aug_14_2014	1134.16	1197.37	1136.84	1141.62	1145.54	1139.36	1122(-1.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-47	-30	-25	-113	0.03	52%	0.24	-41.7	2.38%	0	-1.1	31	0
24	Aug_13_2014	1131.5	1203.7	1140.88	1137.4	1145.19	1140.93	1142(0.87%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-150	-10	-135	-193	0.02	52%	0.24	-44.3	2.36%	0	-0.9	30	0
25	Aug_12_2014	1128.74	1211.7	1150.02	1133.52	1138.04	1151.71	1132.1(-2.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	45	100	99	-116	0.02	52%		-46.8	2.37%	0	-1.1	30	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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