Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jul. 3, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $1310.7000 (0.99%) ($1291.0000 - $1314.0000) on Thu. Jul. 3, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.01% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $1310.7000(0.99%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 1.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    XLB(67%)    IWM(66%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.005% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-30%)    TLT(-25%)    UUP(-13%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.005% (StdDev 2.01%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $1302.28(0.65%)
10 Day Moving Average   $1305.35(0.41%)
20 Day Moving Average   $1263.16(3.76%)
To recent high   -2.9%
To recent low   46.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.96% (three month std-dev: 2.01%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -1.55%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 1.66%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 1.88%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140803

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_3_2014	1023.36	1263.16	1305.35	1302.28	1302.74	1302.88	1310.7(0.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	46	0	40	65	0.01	64%	0.54	74	2.01%	0	0.8	68	INF
2	Jul_2_2014	1017.9	1254.76	1304.12	1299.68	1298.77	1303.74	1297.9(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	71	20	62	96	0.02	64%	0.52	69.4	2.01%	0	0.6	71	INF
3	Jul_1_2014	1012.64	1246.11	1301.83	1298.9	1296.52	1302.61	1302.9(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	330	30	361	236	0.02	64%	0.56	68.1	2.01%	0	0.8	74	INF
4	Jun_30_2014	1007.03	1237.19	1296.21	1291.78	1287.38	1293.81	1301.3(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	63	20	44	120	0.02	64%	0.55	65.3	2%	0	0.9	75	INF
5	Jun_27_2014	1001.54	1227.72	1291.08	1301.58	1289.54	1290.44	1298.6(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	44	-20	12	138	0.02	66%	0.57	70.4	2.04%	0	0.9	73	INF

6	Jun_26_2014	995.85	1218.5	1284.11	1309.32	1304.12	1280.96	1297.7(0.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-221	-140	-307	38	0.02	66%	0.61	75.7	2.05%	0	1	74	INF
7	Jun_25_2014	989.84	1209.37	1273.98	1309.42	1312.25	1288.65	1294(2.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-784	-120	-974	-212	0.04	66%	0.59	77.3	2.06%	0	1.1	76	INF
8	Jun_24_2014	984.08	1199.08	1262.89	1304.8	1314.99	1327.29	1267.3(-6.15%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	32	90	-19	183	0.05	65%	0.58	78.2	2.07%	0	0.8	77	INF
9	Jun_23_2014	978.38	1189.95	1253.39	1299.48	1302.3	1335.85	1350.3(0.97%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	1201	190	1349	758	0.04	72%	0.63	78.5	1.89%	0	2	94	INF
10	Jun_20_2014	972.24	1175.75	1234.95	1278.58	1273.65	1302.69	1337.3(3.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	1108	150	1242	706	0.03	72%	0.59	79.1	1.89%	0	2.2	94	INF

11	Jun_19_2014	966.54	1162.26	1217.07	1255.78	1253.2	1268.75	1298.2(2.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	875	80	972	585	0.03	70%	0.56	80.4	1.87%	0	2	91	INF
12	Jun_18_2014	961.15	1150.88	1200.57	1233.94	1234.01	1244.61	1270.9(2.43%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	416	60	439	345	0.03	69%	0.52	77.4	1.9%	0	2	88	INF
13	Jun_17_2014	956.18	1139.53	1185.03	1215.04	1218.84	1237.65	1240.7(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	603	120	664	418	0.03	67%	0.51	69.5	1.9%	0	1.8	89	INF
14	Jun_16_2014	951.33	1130.11	1172.74	1199.64	1201.35	1223.41	1245.8(1.84%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	823	130	926	513	0.03	67%	0.51	63.3	1.9%	0	2.1	91	INF
15	Jun_13_2014	946.53	1119.91	1158.54	1184.52	1182.51	1200.03	1223.3(2.88%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	624	100	695	410	0.02	63%	0.43	59.9	1.89%	0	2.1	91	INF

16	Jun_12_2014	942.48	1111.24	1146.95	1172.78	1173.95	1179.3	1189(1.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	475	30	523	332	0.03	61%	0.36	58.9	1.93%	0	1.8	87	INF
17	Jun_11_2014	939.08	1106.04	1139.26	1162.1	1164.75	1165	1176.4(1.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	94	10	75	149	0.01	57%	0.36	55.9	1.93%	0	1.7	84	INF
18	Jun_10_2014	935.67	1101.45	1130.29	1150.06	1154.6	1168.6	1163.7(-0.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	287	100	305	231	0.01	57%	0.25	53.9	1.99%	0	1.7	87	INF
19	Jun_9_2014	933.32	1097	1122.1	1141.02	1141.71	1164.5	1170.2(0.48%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	742	140	842	441	0.02	57%	0.38	52.1	1.99%	0	2.2	84	INF
20	Jun_6_2014	929.75	1091.19	1112.3	1128.3	1126.46	1140.59	1164.6(2.55%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	644	80	730	386	0.01	57%	0.37	46.7	1.99%	0	2.4	85	INF

21	Jun_5_2014	926.29	1085.73	1103.22	1117.58	1114.78	1118.92	1135.6(1.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	225	20	239	181	0.02	53%	0.35	45.5	1.98%	0	2	77	INF
22	Jun_4_2014	923.09	1083.91	1097.33	1113.34	1110.24	1112.34	1116.2(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	93	0	87	111	0.01	55%	0.32	54	2.01%	0	1.4	55	INF
23	Jun_3_2014	920.15	1081.94	1090.74	1107.36	1107.6	1110.64	1118.5(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	153	20	163	122	0.01	55%	0.36	53.5	2.04%	0	1.7	56	INF
24	Jun_2_2014	916.88	1079.59	1084.48	1099.92	1101.17	1108.14	1106.6(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	184	50	204	122	0.01	55%	0.29	53.8	2.06%	0	1.3	57	INF
25	May_30_2014	914.25	1077.25	1078.62	1093.32	1093.5	1104.57	1111(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	311	70	358	171	0.01	55%		50.6	2.07%	0	1.7	64	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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