Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 5, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $1135.6000 (1.74%) ($1107.3000 - $1140.1000) on Thu. Jun. 5, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.98% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $1135.6000(1.74%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 2.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    XLB(67%)    IWM(66%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -0.99% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-30%)    TLT(-25%)    UUP(-13%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.99% (StdDev 1.98%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

5 Day Moving Average   $1117.58(1.61%)
10 Day Moving Average   $1103.22(2.94%)
20 Day Moving Average   $1085.73(4.59%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   38.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 2.33% (three month std-dev: 1.98%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 20 Average positive next day return: 0.72%(40%) Average negative next day return: -1.17%(60%) Sample size 20 Average positive next three day return: 2.15%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -2.23%(50%) Sample size 20 Average positive next weekly return: 3.34%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.83%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140705

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_5_2014	926.29	1085.73	1103.22	1117.58	1114.78	1118.92	1135.6(1.74%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	225	20	239	181	0.02	53%	0.35	45.5	1.98%	0	2	77	INF
2	Jun_4_2014	923.09	1083.91	1097.33	1113.34	1110.24	1112.34	1116.2(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	93	0	87	111	0.01	55%	0.32	54	2.01%	0	1.4	55	INF
3	Jun_3_2014	920.15	1081.94	1090.74	1107.36	1107.6	1110.64	1118.5(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	153	20	163	122	0.01	55%	0.36	53.5	2.04%	0	1.7	56	INF
4	Jun_2_2014	916.88	1079.59	1084.48	1099.92	1101.17	1108.14	1106.6(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	184	50	204	122	0.01	55%	0.29	53.8	2.06%	0	1.3	57	INF
5	May_30_2014	914.25	1077.25	1078.62	1093.32	1093.5	1104.57	1111(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	311	70	358	171	0.01	55%	0.3	50.6	2.07%	0	1.7	64	INF

6	May_29_2014	911.56	1074.36	1072.91	1086.5	1086.51	1094.21	1114.4(2.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	321	50	372	166	0.01	55%	0.29	41.5	2.08%	0	2.2	64	INF
7	May_28_2014	908.91	1071.6	1070.01	1079.32	1080.83	1082.43	1086.3(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	127	10	148	62	0.01	53%	0.24	35.6	2.08%	0	0.9	43	INF
8	May_27_2014	906.73	1070.43	1070.15	1071.64	1077.11	1078.81	1081.3(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	78	30	93	31	0.01	53%	0.32	28.1	2.09%	0	0.7	50	INF
9	May_23_2014	903.88	1068.92	1069.79	1066.6	1070.26	1079.24	1073.6(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	162	70	194	65	0.01	57%	0.24	18.2	2.12%	0	0.3	50	INF
10	May_22_2014	901.72	1067.58	1068.39	1061.32	1063.26	1075.41	1076.9(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	376	90	448	158	0.01	57%	0.2	13	2.13%	0	0.6	54	INF

11	May_21_2014	899.91	1066.84	1066.77	1057.12	1055.28	1061.29	1078.5(2.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	204	30	248	73	0.02	57%	0.21	22.9	2.15%	0	0.7	56	INF
12	May_20_2014	898.06	1065.99	1069.15	1059.94	1054.29	1051.1	1047.9(-0.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-99	-40	-113	-57	0.01	54%	0.2	52.9	2.15%	0	-1.1	48	INF
13	May_19_2014	896.27	1066.07	1072.55	1068.74	1064.85	1049.28	1056.1(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-278	-110	-328	-127	0.01	54%	0.19	101.3	2.16%	0	-0.6	50	INF
14	May_16_2014	894.6	1065.97	1074.65	1073.52	1074.47	1057.48	1047.2(-0.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-528	-110	-626	-233	0.01	54%	0.19	151.9	2.14%	0	-1.1	52	INF
15	May_15_2014	892.91	1065.45	1076.51	1075.88	1080.73	1080.43	1055.9(-3.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-192	10	-233	-68	0.02	54%	0.19	181.7	2.16%	0	-0.5	55	INF

16	May_14_2014	891.21	1063.17	1076.87	1076.88	1079.08	1091.46	1092.6(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	250	90	286	140	0.01	61%	0.27	161.3	2.12%	0	1.3	58	INF
17	May_13_2014	888.82	1057.24	1073.81	1079.9	1076.08	1081.04	1091.9(1.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	264	20	301	151	0.01	61%	0.29	134.9	2.16%	0	1.2	58	INF
18	May_12_2014	886.29	1049.62	1070.87	1077.58	1078.49	1066.69	1080(1.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-106	-70	-134	-21	0.01	61%	0.27	104.9	2.16%	0	0.8	61	INF
19	May_9_2014	883.87	1040.96	1067.99	1076.62	1080.86	1071.11	1059(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-373	-50	-448	-148	0.02	63%	0.26	75.9	2.18%	0	0.4	54	NAN
20	May_8_2014	881.6	1033.66	1066.89	1077.04	1081.39	1090.3	1060.9(-4.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	69	70	71	64	0.02	63%	0.27	61.9	2.2%	0	0.5	60	NAN

21	May_7_2014	879.24	1027.96	1067.17	1075.82	1075.74	1090.6	1107.7(2.54%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	511	100	586	284	0.02	69%	0.37	59.2	2.13%	0	1.3	81	NAN
22	May_6_2014	876.03	1019	1062.19	1066.82	1064.92	1072.48	1080.3(0.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	326	40	366	207	0.01	70%	0.32	55.1	2.14%	0	1	83	NAN
23	May_5_2014	873.23	1010.33	1058.62	1063.52	1058.32	1060.89	1075.2(1.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	69	0	56	107	0.01	67%	0.34	50.8	2.19%	0	1	86	NAN
24	May_2_2014	870.28	1003.93	1056.11	1058.54	1060.43	1057.37	1061.1(0.6%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	98	-10	83	144	0.02	64%	0.31	52.3	2.33%	0	0.9	88	NAN
25	May_1_2014	867.58	998.72	1053.28	1055.26	1056.92	1055.75	1054.8(-0.74%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-91	-0	-148	80	0.01	64%		58.2	2.35%	0	0.9	85	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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