Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Feb. 24, 2014

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $864.1000 (4.39%) ($835.0000 - $887.2900) on Mon. Feb. 24, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.53% (three month average)
RSI   79
Latest Price   $864.1000(4.39%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 7.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLE(93%)    OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(65%)    XLF(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.265% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    UUP(-13%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.265% (StdDev 2.53%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $840.2(2.84%)
10 Day Moving Average   $813.38(6.24%)
20 Day Moving Average   $782.55(10.42%)
To recent high   -3.9%
To recent low   21.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.49% (three month std-dev: 2.53%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 1.23%(50%) Average negative next day return: -2.39%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 5.58%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -5.03%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 4.2%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_24_2014	821.26	782.55	813.38	840.2	842.49	848.07	864.1(4.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	259	50	254	273	0.07	52%	0.13	16.2	2.53%	0	1.9	79	NAN
2	Feb_21_2014	820.21	777.66	803.15	830.76	834.84	840.25	827.8(-2.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	200	60	186	243	0.04	51%	0.11	5.1	2.48%	0	1.3	64	NAN
3	Feb_20_2014	819.33	777.04	794.76	822.2	825.69	836.91	848.4(1.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	343	110	361	290	0.03	51%	0.11	-1	2.49%	0	1.9	60	NAN
4	Feb_19_2014	818.43	776.56	780.96	807.66	809.38	829.44	832.1(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	424	180	468	293	0.04	51%	0.1	-8.7	2.47%	0	1.4	59	NAN
5	Feb_18_2014	817.64	776.41	770.5	797.64	796.64	814.46	828.6(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	607	150	692	350	0.03	49%	0.19	-10.9	2.47%	0	1.3	56	NAN

6	Feb_14_2014	816.13	775.65	758.44	782.52	782.85	789.33	816.9(4.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	322	60	370	179	0.05	49%	0.06	-24.7	2.48%	0	1	57	NAN
7	Feb_13_2014	815.63	775.73	750.92	771.82	770.69	778.83	785(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	103	70	120	52	0.03	48%	0.03	-34	2.43%	0	0.2	51	NAN
8	Feb_12_2014	815.42	777.42	749.54	763.06	765.85	776.38	775.7(-0.81%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	389	110	465	160	0.03	47%	0.01	-42.4	2.45%	0	-0	41	NAN
9	Feb_11_2014	815.31	779.95	748.48	749.7	752.12	762.55	782(3.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	246	110	311	51	0.03	47%	0.02	-53.9	2.48%	0	0	38	NAN
10	Feb_10_2014	815.12	780.81	747.87	739.1	739.39	755.33	753(-1.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	303	150	389	44	0.03	44%	-0.03	-65.8	2.43%	0	-0.6	36	NAN

11	Feb_7_2014	815.33	785.58	748.88	730.4	731.44	741.69	763.4(3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	345	100	447	39	0.03	44%	-0.04	-68.9	2.49%	0	-0.5	41	NAN
12	Feb_6_2014	815.64	789.71	749.67	727.36	725.04	723.46	741.2(4.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-67	-20	-32	-172	0.03	42%	-0.07	-69.9	2.52%	0	-1	36	NAN
13	Feb_5_2014	816.23	795.47	757.59	734.78	730.85	721.19	708.9(-2.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-300	-110	-308	-277	0.03	38%	-0.08	-69.5	2.45%	0	-1.8	30	NAN
14	Feb_4_2014	816.87	803.88	771.91	747.08	745.9	726.61	729(2.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-399	-190	-431	-301	0.04	42%	-0.04	-66.3	2.45%	0	-1.7	31	NAN
15	Feb_3_2014	817.19	810.37	783.13	757.98	756.96	740.51	709.5(-5.17%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-580	-160	-653	-361	0.05	40%	-0.06	-68.1	2.48%	0	-2.4	36	NAN

16	Jan_31_2014	817.72	817.96	795.15	769.14	768.86	765.19	748.2(-3.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-221	-30	-233	-186	0.05	43%	-0.02	-76.1	2.4%	0	-1.9	33	NAN
17	Jan_30_2014	817.86	823.84	803.47	774.6	773.35	773.4	778.3(1.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-53	-0	-35	-106	0.04	44%	0	-79.5	2.35%	0	-1.4	37	NAN
18	Jan_29_2014	817.83	829.76	808.25	784.28	776.73	772.53	770.4(-1.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-226	-70	-240	-182	0.05	44%	0.01	-68.5	2.36%	0	-1.8	34	NAN
19	Jan_28_2014	817.71	835.08	814.6	801.28	792.9	773.3	783.5(2.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-363	-200	-406	-233	0.03	44%	0.03	-50.9	2.37%	0	-1.5	33	NAN
20	Jan_27_2014	817.44	840.64	816.9	813.08	811.25	780.94	765.3(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-786	-270	-905	-429	0.05	42%	0.04	-36.1	2.35%	0	-2.3	35	NAN

21	Jan_24_2014	817.13	846.75	825.88	824.9	828.56	812.5	775.5(-6.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-651	-120	-752	-349	0.07	42%	0.05	-22	2.36%	0	-2.4	36	NAN
22	Jan_23_2014	816.7	851.5	833.68	835.52	838.4	841.56	826.7(-3.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-36	40	-31	-49	0.04	43%	0.13	-2.7	2.23%	0	-1	42	NAN
23	Jan_22_2014	815.66	852.77	836.57	835.14	835.63	844.63	855.4(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	226	80	280	63	0.04	45%	0.18	3.4	2.27%	0	0.1	39	NAN
24	Jan_21_2014	814.22	852.4	837.92	830.32	830.46	835.24	842.5(2.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	201	40	253	43	0.05	45%	0.18	8.2	2.27%	0	-0.4	43	NAN
25	Jan_17_2014	812.74	852.44	838.94	822.06	826.35	826.63	824.4(-0.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	16	20	43	-66	0.04	47%		5.9	2.28%	0	-1.2	36	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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