Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 24, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $863.6000 (1.76%) ($850.0000 - $865.4000) on Tue. Dec. 24, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.29% (three month average)
RSI   57
Latest Price   $863.6000(1.76%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(65%)    SPY(64%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.145% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-26%)    GDXJ(-6%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    XBI(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.145% (StdDev 2.29%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $847.13(1.94%)
10 Day Moving Average   $824.66(4.72%)
20 Day Moving Average   $828.2(4.27%)
To recent high   -2.2%
To recent low   21.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 2.36% (three month std-dev: 2.29%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.31%(50%) Average negative next day return: -2.68%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 3.96%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -4.14%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 3.63%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.75%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140124

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_24_2013	786.3	828.2	824.66	847.13	847.94	856.14	863.6(1.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	245	70	277	149	0.02	54%	0.15	-12.3	2.29%	0	1.8	57	NAN
2	Dec_23_2013	785.1	827.67	820.33	834.17	837.25	850.51	848.64(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	352	120	411	175	0.03	54%	0.13	-27.9	2.28%	0	1.1	51	NAN
3	Dec_20_2013	784.11	828.99	818.24	826.78	824.53	839.74	847.5(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	405	120	477	189	0.03	52%	0.11	-30.7	2.29%	0	0.8	53	NAN
4	Dec_19_2013	783.23	829.8	815.99	815.76	815.22	824	840.8(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	386	70	461	162	0.03	52%	0.15	-39.2	2.31%	0	0.5	52	NAN
5	Dec_18_2013	782.06	829.91	813.72	808.02	804.81	809.33	835.1(4.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	100	30	129	11	0.05	54%	0.15	-46.9	2.31%	0	0.2	49	NAN

6	Dec_17_2013	780.88	830.57	812.85	799.16	800.42	806.44	798.8(-1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	82	60	115	-17	0.02	52%	0.1	-50.3	2.29%	0	-1.3	33	NAN
7	Dec_16_2013	780.12	833.09	816.92	804.48	801.43	800.29	811.7(2.44%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.3	33	-20	57	-38	0.03	52%	0.09	-46.2	2.28%	0	-0.9	33	NAN
8	Dec_13_2013	779.41	835.9	818.93	808.66	806.59	794.39	792.4(-1.21%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-294	-110	-325	-199	0.04	50%	0.06	-34.9	2.27%	0	-1.8	20	NAN
9	Dec_12_2013	778.96	839.16	822.98	816.14	816.94	802.56	802.1(1.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-435	-120	-491	-265	0.05	50%	0.09	-18.6	2.26%	0	-1.7	29	NAN
10	Dec_11_2013	778.25	841.23	826.52	820.06	826.56	818.8	790.8(-4.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-307	-40	-342	-202	0.05	50%	0.04	-14.8	2.26%	0	-2.5	36	NAN

11	Dec_10_2013	777.93	843.01	832.87	828	830.78	831.33	825.4(-0.86%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-76	10	-74	-83	0.03	53%	0.09	-7.9	2.22%	0	-1	42	NAN
12	Dec_9_2013	777.21	843.94	836.21	828	831.07	834.31	832.6(0.34%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.1	64	30	89	-10	0.03	55%	0.09	-7.1	2.21%	0	-0.7	46	NAN
13	Dec_6_2013	776.49	844.27	840.87	831	831.31	830.24	829.8(0.99%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	42	-10	61	-17	0.03	55%	0.13	-3.6	2.24%	0	-0.9	38	NAN
14	Dec_5_2013	775.48	843.18	844.75	831.16	830.78	827.83	821.7(-1.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-135	-30	-147	-97	0.03	55%	0.15	-10.9	2.24%	0	-1.2	42	NAN
15	Dec_4_2013	774.34	844.19	847.44	834.04	833.92	832.38	830.5(-1.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-66	-10	-68	-59	0.04	55%	0.17	-7.5	2.24%	0	-0.8	50	NAN

16	Dec_3_2013	773.01	844.37	849.67	838.44	836.43	833.73	840.4(0.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-105	-30	-119	-63	0.04	55%	0.17	-8	2.24%	0	-0.2	59	NAN
17	Dec_2_2013	771.73	845.11	850.47	842.46	842.09	835.46	832.6(0.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-179	-60	-208	-90	0.03	55%	0.16	1.9	2.25%	0	-0.7	49	NAN
18	Nov_29_2013	770.53	844.86	854.15	852.6	850.8	839.14	830.6(-0.66%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-288	-100	-344	-118	0.02	53%	0.27	13.2	2.25%	0	-0.8	50	NAN
19	Nov_27_2013	768.45	845.19	856.79	860.48	860.04	848.71	836.1(-1.92%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-299	-90	-365	-99	0.04	56%	0.18	27.7	2.35%	0	-0.5	60	NAN
20	Nov_26_2013	767.08	845.5	857.5	862.38	865.54	862.46	852.5(-0.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-143	-10	-183	-21	0.02	56%	0.23	37.2	2.35%	0	0.4	53	NAN

21	Nov_25_2013	765.34	845.8	854.49	862.08	865.03	871.38	860.5(-2.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	125	60	132	102	0.03	56%	0.26	38.6	2.34%	0	0.8	56	NAN
22	Nov_22_2013	763.38	844.79	852.64	859.34	859.54	868.61	883.3(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	228	70	256	144	0.02	60%	0.16	36	2.33%	0	2.2	54	NAN
23	Nov_21_2013	762.17	842.45	847.8	856.48	856.41	858.69	870(2.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	162	20	179	112	0.02	60%	0.3	32.8	2.38%	0	1.7	59	NAN
24	Nov_20_2013	759.87	840.19	841.14	853.3	856.21	850.46	845.6(-0.63%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-34	-40	-48	8	0.03	58%	0.27	28.8	2.37%	0	0.3	53	NAN
25	Nov_19_2013	757.81	838.77	840.43	851.96	853.96	854.13	851(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-67	10	-86	-9	0.03	55%		25	2.37%	0	0.8	52	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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