Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Nov. 22, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $883.3000 (1.53%) ($856.6000 - $884.4000) on Fri. Nov. 22, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.33% (three month average)
RSI   54
Latest Price   $883.3000(1.53%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(65%)    SPY(64%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.165% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    BNDX(-4%)    GLD(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.165% (StdDev 2.33%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $859.34(2.79%)
10 Day Moving Average   $852.64(3.6%)
20 Day Moving Average   $844.79(4.56%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   28.4%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 2.11% (three month std-dev: 2.33%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 1.29%(45%) Average negative next day return: -0.57%(55%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 1.62%(55%) Average negative next three day return: -1.94%(45%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 1.84%(64%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.61%(36%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20131222

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_22_2013	763.38	844.79	852.64	859.34	859.54	868.61	883.3(1.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	228	70	256	144	0.02	60%	0.16	36	2.33%	0	2.2	54	NAN
2	Nov_21_2013	762.17	842.45	847.8	856.48	856.41	858.69	870(2.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	162	20	179	112	0.02	60%	0.3	32.8	2.38%	0	1.7	59	NAN
3	Nov_20_2013	759.87	840.19	841.14	853.3	856.21	850.46	845.6(-0.63%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-34	-40	-48	8	0.03	58%	0.27	28.8	2.37%	0	0.3	53	NAN
4	Nov_19_2013	757.81	838.77	840.43	851.96	853.96	854.13	851(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-67	10	-86	-9	0.03	55%	0.28	25	2.37%	0	0.8	52	NAN
5	Nov_18_2013	755.67	838.8	838.41	845.34	848.19	861.97	846.8(-2.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	235	120	275	116	0.03	55%	0.3	34.4	2.46%	0	0.5	47	NAN

6	Nov_15_2013	753.43	838.44	839.04	844.32	839.33	853.79	869(1.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	403	100	471	197	0.03	57%	0.32	46.5	2.44%	0	1.9	55	NAN
7	Nov_14_2013	751.04	837.29	834.33	837.96	833.84	834.41	854.1(1.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	242	-10	286	108	0.03	57%	0.3	61.8	2.45%	0	1.2	53	NAN
8	Nov_13_2013	748.77	835.73	832.12	827.48	827.28	824.86	838.9(2.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-149	-20	-169	-89	0.03	57%	0.3	64.5	2.45%	0	0.2	53	NAN
9	Nov_12_2013	746.54	834.84	832.17	827.5	827.04	833.27	817.9(-2.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	12	50	18	-8	0.02	55%	0.3	79.6	2.43%	0	-0.9	53	NAN
10	Nov_11_2013	744.29	833.48	836.37	830.18	831.34	829.7	841.7(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	155	-10	185	64	0.01	57%	0.29	92.4	2.41%	0	0.4	48	NAN

11	Nov_8_2013	742.11	831.19	836.27	833.04	831.08	820.8	837.2(4.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-284	-90	-332	-138	0.03	57%	0.3	94.9	2.41%	0	0.3	50	NAN
12	Nov_7_2013	739.92	828.42	836.56	830.42	837.66	832.98	801.7(-4.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-157	-10	-181	-85	0.04	55%	0.17	78.4	2.36%	0	-1	41	NAN
13	Nov_6_2013	738.68	826.55	839.57	836.96	837.46	841.35	839(0.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-9	30	-10	-5	0.03	58%	0.19	67.2	2.29%	0	0.3	55	NAN
14	Nov_5_2013	737.27	820.73	837.45	837.38	836.54	842.35	831.3(-2.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	132	50	155	61	0.02	58%	0.2	53.9	2.3%	0	0.3	54	NAN
15	Nov_4_2013	735.8	815.64	839.69	843.32	838.83	833.56	856(3.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	38	-60	36	44	0.03	61%	0.27	51.9	2.27%	0	0.9	67	NAN

16	Nov_1_2013	733.8	810.16	837.96	840.48	841.03	830.72	824.1(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-295	-80	-359	-104	0.03	62%	0.2	50.9	2.24%	0	0.3	60	NAN
17	Oct_31_2013	732.33	807.26	840.67	843.76	845.31	844.1	834.4(-0.8%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-104	-0	-142	10	0.02	62%	0.26	52.2	2.31%	0	0.6	65	NAN
18	Oct_30_2013	730.42	802.85	839.81	842.18	844.31	851.34	841.1(-2.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	197	70	206	169	0.04	62%	0.25	49.1	2.31%	0	0.8	71	NAN
19	Oct_29_2013	728.58	798.83	837.84	837.02	836.85	846.53	861(2.28%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	289	80	307	235	0.02	64%	0.24	46.1	2.29%	0	1.4	80	NAN
20	Oct_28_2013	726.85	793.46	830.34	835.76	828.92	837.28	841.8(0.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	175	50	167	199	0.03	64%	0.2	46.2	2.3%	0	1.1	76	NAN

21	Oct_25_2013	725.38	788.43	825.63	835.56	832.94	827.18	840.5(1.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	128	-60	106	194	0.05	64%	0.24	45.5	2.3%	0	1.2	68	NAN
22	Oct_24_2013	723.67	784.12	819.56	837.62	835.69	820.56	826.5(1.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-364	-130	-476	-26	0.03	61%	0.24	47.7	2.31%	0	1	62	NAN
23	Oct_23_2013	721.95	781	812.79	837	842.16	838.7	815.3(-4.61%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.5	-168	-10	-248	71	0.03	61%	0.19	46.2	2.34%	0	0.9	64	NAN
24	Oct_22_2013	720.58	778.36	803.43	837.86	841.19	850.83	854.7(1.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	275	90	274	276	0.04	65%	0.22	44.2	2.27%	0	1.9	65	NAN
25	Oct_21_2013	718.97	773.48	790.17	823.62	830.31	845.61	840.8(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	477	150	522	340	0.03	65%		37.2	2.26%	0	1.9	65	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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