Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. Apr. 18, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $547.2000 (2.57%) ($523.2000 - $557.1000) on Thu. Apr. 18, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.2% (three month average)
RSI   31
Latest Price   $547.2000(2.57%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX declines -3.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -5.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.6% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    GLD(5%)    TIP(7%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.6% (StdDev 3.2%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

Resistance Level   $621.21
5 Day Moving Average   $566.12(-3.34%)
10 Day Moving Average   $599.67(-8.75%)
20 Day Moving Average   $621.21(-11.91%)
To recent high   -18.6%
To recent low   2.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.51% (three month std-dev: 3.2%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 15 Average positive next day return: 3.04%(53%) Average negative next day return: -1.73%(47%) Sample size 15 Average positive next three day return: 5.35%(73%) Average negative next three day return: -6.31%(27%) Sample size 15 Average positive next weekly return: 5.92%(73%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.78%(27%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130518

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_18_2013	581.15	621.21	599.67	566.12	557.31	542.11	547.2(2.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-394	-240	-431	-283	0.12	42%	0.13	-56.4	3.2%	0	-1.8	31	0
2	Apr_17_2013	580.39	626.44	606.45	588.42	580.63	554.19	533.5(-6.6%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-515	-360	-579	-324	0.11	42%	0.13	-46.9	3.2%	0	-2.5	26	0
3	Apr_16_2013	579.63	631.94	615.12	611.92	609.33	572.51	571.2(3.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-677	-440	-775	-381	0.07	46%	0.18	-40.1	3.09%	0	-2	32	0
4	Apr_15_2013	578.61	636.32	622.91	625.66	630.15	607.06	550(-12.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.9	-682	-230	-788	-364	0.16	43%	0.12	-30.8	3.06%	0	-3.3	33	0
5	Apr_12_2013	577.94	642.74	634.29	640.5	643.79	646.15	628.7(-4.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-80	40	-86	-60	0.09	52%	0.09	-16.5	2.57%	0	-0.8	45	0

6	Apr_11_2013	577.41	644.86	637.42	637.4	639.68	653.24	658.7(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	354	160	423	146	0.07	56%	0.35	-12.5	2.52%	0	0.7	58	0
7	Apr_10_2013	575.39	644.14	637.83	627.5	624.86	641.44	651(1.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	361	170	435	137	0.05	56%	0.35	-23.3	2.52%	0	0.4	52	0
8	Apr_9_2013	573.38	644.07	638.65	619.6	614.73	626.11	639.9(2.52%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	301	110	367	103	0.05	56%	0.32	-29.4	2.53%	0	-0.2	53	0
9	Apr_8_2013	571.53	644.49	638.82	620.98	613.36	608.28	624.2(1.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-22	-90	-12	-50	0.05	56%	0.35	-19.9	2.51%	0	-1.1	42	0
10	Apr_5_2013	569.55	645.76	641.29	627.82	621.89	603.35	613.2(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-429	-240	-493	-238	0.07	56%	0.34	-3.2	2.51%	0	-1.8	34	0

11	Apr_4_2013	567.62	647.25	643.81	637.59	636.98	618.44	609.2(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-536	-210	-621	-282	0.05	58%	0.34	17.8	2.53%	0	-2.3	32	0
12	Apr_3_2013	565.71	648.54	647.84	649.45	651.46	640.44	611.5(-5.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.5	-340	-110	-397	-169	0.07	58%	0.31	44.8	2.56%	0	-2.5	44	0
13	Apr_2_2013	563.95	649.65	650.57	659.77	659.21	655.51	646.8(-1.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-131	-40	-155	-57	0.05	67%	0.37	85.8	2.45%	0	-0.2	50	0
14	Apr_1_2013	561.88	648.23	651.29	658.79	660.32	662.48	658.4(-0.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	21	30	23	14	0.05	67%	0.61	84.7	2.57%	0	0.7	54	0
15	Mar_28_2013	558.5	646.33	652.34	656.65	657.89	662.91	662.07(-0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	136	60	157	71	0.04	66%	0.35	72.6	2.66%	0	0.9	55	0

16	Mar_27_2013	556.53	644.3	653.06	651.06	652.49	658.16	668.5(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	139	70	161	72	0.05	66%	0.29	67	2.75%	0	1.4	60	0
17	Mar_26_2013	554.93	641.91	650.68	646.44	647.03	652.86	663.1(3.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	132	70	154	66	0.05	66%	0.32	53.9	2.75%	0	1.1	62	0
18	Mar_25_2013	553.14	638.5	649.32	640.4	643.64	646.82	641.9(-0.9%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	103	50	121	49	0.05	64%	0.31	24.4	2.74%	0	0.2	58	0
19	Mar_22_2013	551.45	635.5	650.06	642.82	641.72	641.21	647.7(2.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-7	-10	-13	10	0.05	64%	0.27	14.9	2.76%	0	0.5	64	0
20	Mar_21_2013	549.97	634.39	650.1	647.66	643.68	640.46	634.1(-1.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-106	-50	-134	-20	0.05	64%	0.26	14	2.77%	0	-0	59	0

21	Mar_20_2013	548.55	633.11	650.83	655.32	652.28	642.24	645.4(1.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-99	-120	-132	2	0.04	64%	0.19	15.8	2.79%	0	0.5	62	0
22	Mar_19_2013	547.53	631.78	649.43	655.42	656.74	646.9	632.92(-3.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-237	-100	-296	-60	0.1	64%	0.17	11.9	2.8%	0	0	58	0
23	Mar_18_2013	546.62	633.03	649.26	659.04	658.3	662.33	654(-2.66%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-41	40	-71	50	0.07	69%	0.3	20.9	2.78%	0	0.9	78	0
24	Mar_15_2013	544.97	632.13	645.58	657.86	657.92	666.58	671.9(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	278	90	301	210	0.07	71%	0.34	19.4	2.81%	0	1.7	91	0
25	Mar_14_2013	543.11	631.15	640.18	652.98	650.75	654.28	672.4(4.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	140	30	141	136	0.07	71%		20.9	2.83%	0	1.8	62	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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