Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jan. 28, 2013

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $600.0000 (-0.73%) ($590.3000 - $610.0000) on Mon. Jan. 28, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.9% (three month average)
RSI   82
Latest Price   $600.0000(-0.73%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 6.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.45% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-5%)    GLD(5%)    TIP(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.45% (StdDev 2.9%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $592.5(1.27%)
10 Day Moving Average   $571.72(4.95%)
20 Day Moving Average   $543.79(10.34%)
To recent high   -0.7%
To recent low   40.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.02% (three month std-dev: 2.9%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 12 Average positive next day return: 2.22%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.97%(50%) Sample size 12 Average positive next three day return: 2.18%(58%) Average negative next three day return: -2.58%(42%) Sample size 12 Average positive next weekly return: 2.1%(58%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.97%(42%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_28_2013	513.43	543.79	571.72	592.5	593.33	601.26	600(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	196	100	190	212	0.07	62%	0.14	81.4	2.9%	0	1.7	82	0
2	Jan_25_2013	512.69	537.79	564.89	586.66	587.05	594.43	604.4(2.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	258	90	266	233	0.09	62%	0.21	66.9	2.89%	0	1.9	75	0
3	Jan_24_2013	511.63	531.6	557.18	576.78	577.66	585.4	588(1.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	196	100	197	191	0.08	62%	0.23	56.8	2.89%	0	1.6	77	0
4	Jan_23_2013	510.44	526.53	549.88	568.04	569.26	579.66	581.9(-1.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	268	130	288	209	0.06	56%	0.21	51	2.91%	0	1.7	76	0
5	Jan_22_2013	509.36	522.31	543.29	559.36	558.6	569.93	588.2(3.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	286	140	311	209	0.08	56%	0.2	50.2	3.05%	0	2.1	85	0

6	Jan_18_2013	508.33	518.37	536.44	547.86	546.81	558.86	570.8(2.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	257	150	277	196	0.08	51%	0.2	51.2	3.07%	0	1.9	87	0
7	Jan_17_2013	507.34	514.86	532.46	540	538.74	547.28	555(1.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	257	100	275	201	0.09	53%	0.13	50.6	3.05%	0	1.6	72	0
8	Jan_16_2013	506.7	512.72	528.66	534.76	532.36	534.75	544.3(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	120	20	113	139	0.08	56%	0.09	54.1	3.07%	0	1.4	69	0
9	Jan_15_2013	506.25	509.98	525.99	528.88	529.13	530.2	538.5(1.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	57	20	40	108	0.06	56%	0.08	51.9	3.14%	0	1.3	65	0
10	Jan_14_2013	505.85	506.91	520.87	524.56	525.89	529.96	530.7(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	78	60	68	107	0.04	56%	0.06	46.7	3.13%	0	1.1	58	0

11	Jan_11_2013	505.55	504.55	513.98	523.12	522.21	528.05	531.5(0.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	110	70	112	102	0.04	56%	0.08	46.3	3.14%	0	1.3	53	0
12	Jan_10_2013	505.14	502.66	508.96	523.86	520.75	521.81	528.8(2.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	85	-0	85	86	0.07	52%	0.04	54.9	3.15%	0	1.3	56	0
13	Jan_9_2013	504.93	500.69	504.38	521.8	521.15	516.38	514.9(-0.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-38	-70	-55	14	0.06	52%	0.02	62.1	3.22%	0	0.7	49	0
14	Jan_8_2013	504.82	499.07	501.8	522.52	521.42	519.69	516.9(-1.26%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-61	-30	-83	4	0.06	52%	0.02	68	3.22%	0	0.9	57	0
15	Jan_7_2013	504.74	497.38	500.08	516.1	520.76	525.93	523.5(-2.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	169	100	189	109	0.06	52%	0.02	61.7	3.21%	0	1.3	62	0

16	Jan_4_2013	504.63	494.92	498.96	502.76	506.96	523.15	535.2(3.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	245	250	283	130	0.09	54%	0.04	43.9	3.2%	0	2.2	62	0
17	Jan_3_2013	504.42	491.6	495.49	491.78	490.82	515.6	518.5(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	1.6	418	350	492	194	0.16	50%	0.04	30	3.2%	0	1.6	55	0
18	Jan_2_2013	504.23	488.75	494.87	484.7	480.67	490.78	518.5(6.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	374	120	442	168	0.19	50%	0.03	19	3.24%	0	1.9	56	0
19	Dec_31_2012	504.06	486.14	491.9	478.82	475.02	466.04	484.8(6.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-123	-160	-139	-75	0.18	46%	-0.05	7.7	3.11%	0	-0.1	52	0
20	Dec_28_2012	504.33	485.7	491.39	482.22	481.41	470.57	456.8(-4.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-283	-160	-328	-147	0.12	42%	-0.1	10.3	3.01%	0	-1.8	44	0

21	Dec_27_2012	504.85	486.9	494.6	494.26	490.35	484	480.3(-0.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-194	-110	-232	-78	0.13	48%	-0.04	37.2	2.95%	0	-0.4	54	0
22	Dec_26_2012	505.03	486.7	496.35	499.32	498.73	492.24	483.1(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-111	-90	-141	-20	0.05	48%	0.04	51.8	3.01%	0	-0.2	57	0
23	Dec_24_2012	504.83	485.73	497.38	506.16	504.52	496.7	489.1(-2.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-125	-120	-166	-2	0.03	48%	0.04	60.6	3.02%	0	0.2	62	0
24	Dec_21_2012	504.65	484.94	496.96	506.56	506.95	505.23	501.8(-2.94%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-49	-20	-79	41	0.11	48%	0.12	73.2	3.01%	0	1.1	64	0
25	Dec_20_2012	504.02	484.04	495.2	501.64	503.66	512.34	517(2.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	153	130	160	131	0.05	48%		82.4	2.99%	0	2.1	65	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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