Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Oct. 3, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $524.4000 (-3.69%) ($517.7500 - $542.8000) on Wed. Oct. 3, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.06% (three month average)
RSI   35
Latest Price   $524.4000(-3.69%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -3.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.53% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-26%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(6%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.53% (StdDev 3.06%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -3.4%

Resistance Level   $548.2
5 Day Moving Average   $538.16(-2.56%)
10 Day Moving Average   $542.12(-3.27%)
20 Day Moving Average   $548.2(-4.34%)
To recent high   -12.8%
To recent low   40.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.02% (three month std-dev: 3.06%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121103

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_3_2012	447.1	548.2	542.12	538.16	539.91	539.16	524.4(-3.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-134	0	-137	-123	0.11	77%	0.33	44.8	3.06%	0	-0.9	35	0
2	Oct_2_2012	445.63	546.26	545.43	537.46	541.3	546.77	544.5(0.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	113	90	152	-6	0.05	81%	0.34	36	3.13%	0	-0.1	50	0
3	Oct_1_2012	444.14	543.37	547.9	535.92	535.85	540.66	543.5(1.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	46	60	72	-33	0.08	81%	0.29	31.2	3.13%	0	0	53	0
4	Sep_28_2012	442.86	540.96	551.8	537.96	536.13	535.83	535.4(-1.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	11	-10	24	-29	0.09	83%	0.25	29.7	3.29%	0	-0.2	56	0
5	Sep_27_2012	441.75	538.4	558.1	543.44	540.76	531.04	543(4.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-137	-140	-159	-72	0.08	84%	0.28	30.3	3.28%	0	0.1	56	0

6	Sep_26_2012	440.5	536.13	561.67	547.18	548.68	536.43	520.9(-2.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-234	-150	-281	-92	0.1	83%	0.21	30.6	3.31%	0	-0.4	59	0
7	Sep_25_2012	439.56	535.43	565.13	554.32	555.37	550.48	536.8(-3.05%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-158	-60	-202	-24	0.09	77%	0.24	35.8	3.3%	0	0	69	0
8	Sep_24_2012	438.51	533.79	566.03	561.28	559.31	560.93	553.7(-1.62%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-14	10	-42	72	0.1	77%	0.28	39.8	3.38%	0	0.5	72	0
9	Sep_21_2012	437.3	531.22	563.61	567.64	564.36	560.27	562.8(0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	14	-70	-17	108	0.08	68%	0.22	43.5	3.37%	0	0.8	70	0
10	Sep_20_2012	436.32	527.71	560.64	575.3	569.7	557.69	561.7(0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-172	-180	-242	40	0.1	68%	0.17	47.3	3.73%	0	0.9	72	0

11	Sep_19_2012	435.58	524.94	555.32	578.68	581.44	568.45	556.6(-2.62%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-114	-140	-178	80	0.1	69%	0.1	52.4	3.73%	0	0.8	65	0
12	Sep_18_2012	435.15	522.24	547.94	577.18	581.59	581.71	571.6(-2.37%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.1	-62	20	-116	99	0.11	69%	0.18	52.9	3.74%	0	1.3	66	0
13	Sep_17_2012	434.35	518.88	539.07	570.8	575.62	594.43	585.5(-2.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	284	250	295	250	0.1	69%	0.23	51.5	3.74%	0	1.9	69	0
14	Sep_14_2012	433.35	514.87	529.38	558.46	561.84	581.48	601.1(3.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	438	260	483	303	0.16	72%	0.27	46.8	3.75%	0	2.7	73	0
15	Sep_13_2012	432.2	510.08	516.57	544.2	544.3	556.81	578.6(5.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	276	160	301	202	0.19	71%	0.24	45.7	3.77%	0	2.8	72	0

16	Sep_12_2012	431.17	505.8	507.53	529.12	532.71	542.2	549.1(1.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	232	150	258	155	0.09	71%	0.2	37.9	3.76%	0	2.3	60	0
17	Sep_11_2012	430.29	503.22	502.32	514.36	519.65	531.8	539.7(3.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	211	190	241	121	0.09	68%	0.2	20.9	3.77%	0	2.3	59	0
18	Sep_10_2012	429.41	501.23	497.99	502.32	505.3	523.22	523.8(-1.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.6	261	270	306	124	0.07	68%	0.16	9.8	3.8%	0	1.6	54	0
19	Sep_7_2012	428.71	500.39	495.42	495.54	493.69	507.51	529.8(5.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.6	281	180	334	120	0.12	68%	0.17	9.7	3.8%	0	2.3	54	0
20	Sep_6_2012	427.97	499.05	491.32	484.98	486.39	487.38	503.2(5.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	105	20	135	14	0.14	69%	0.1	11.1	3.75%	0	0.4	44	0

21	Sep_5_2012	427.54	498.74	491.56	483.12	482.33	479.86	475.3(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-109	-40	-116	-87	0.06	68%	0.03	20.9	3.85%	0	-2.1	41	0
22	Sep_4_2012	427.42	498.74	494.57	488.42	487.26	485.4	479.5(-2.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-37	-30	-34	-45	0.14	68%	0.04	57.6	3.85%	0	-2.1	41	0
23	Aug_31_2012	427.23	499.88	497.58	492.7	492.05	484.8	489.9(2.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-77	-110	-84	-56	0.1	64%	0.05	59.7	3.92%	0	-0.8	44	0
24	Aug_30_2012	427.01	499.16	499.83	495.06	495.55	489.13	477(-3.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-139	-90	-158	-82	0.07	59%	0.09	46.9	3.93%	0	-1.3	33	0
25	Aug_29_2012	426.64	497.79	503.81	498.2	498.93	499.3	493.9(-1.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-36	10	-39	-27	0.06	61%		48.9	4.07%	0	-0.2	43	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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