Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. Aug. 31, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $489.9000 (2.7%) ($479.8000 - $498.0000) on Fri. Aug. 31, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.92% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $489.9000(2.7%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX declines -0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(87%)    IWM(66%)    SPY(65%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.96% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-26%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    TIP(6%)    GLD(6%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.96% (StdDev 3.92%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.3%

Resistance Level   $499.88
5 Day Moving Average   $492.7(-0.57%)
10 Day Moving Average   $497.58(-1.54%)
20 Day Moving Average   $499.88(-2%)
To recent high   -5%
To recent low   50.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 2.38% (three month std-dev: 3.92%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 1.45%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.37%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 2.24%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.74%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -29.14%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20121001

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_31_2012	427.23	499.88	497.58	492.7	492.05	484.8	489.9(2.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-77	-110	-84	-56	0.1	64%	0.05	59.7	3.92%	0	-0.8	44	0
2	Aug_30_2012	427.01	499.16	499.83	495.06	495.55	489.13	477(-3.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-139	-90	-158	-82	0.07	59%	0.09	46.9	3.93%	0	-1.3	33	0
3	Aug_29_2012	426.64	497.79	503.81	498.2	498.93	499.3	493.9(-1.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-36	10	-39	-27	0.06	61%	0.13	48.9	4.07%	0	-0.2	43	0
4	Aug_28_2012	426.1	496.41	504.6	501.18	499.31	501.98	501.8(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	30	30	37	9	0.06	61%	0.08	61.1	4.09%	0	0.3	54	0
5	Aug_27_2012	425.75	494.25	504.71	501.72	499.83	498.57	500.9(-0.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	5	-30	7	0	0.06	61%	0.18	72	4.12%	0	0.3	56	0

6	Aug_24_2012	424.99	492.88	505.09	503.38	501.88	496.65	501.7(1.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-70	-80	-84	-26	0.08	61%	0.04	83.3	4.12%	0	0.4	67	0
7	Aug_23_2012	424.83	491.28	505.97	505.6	505.64	501.1	492.7(-3.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-84	-60	-105	-20	0.09	61%	-0	85.5	4.12%	0	0.1	66	0
8	Aug_22_2012	424.85	489.1	507.55	510.16	509.39	507.11	508.8(0.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-27	-40	-46	30	0.08	61%	-0.01	76	4.1%	0	0.7	84	0
9	Aug_21_2012	424.9	484.43	506.49	508.44	510.79	510.19	504.5(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	10	3	58	0.1	63%	-0.06	63	4.1%	0	0.6	68	0
10	Aug_20_2012	425.14	479.93	505.64	507.98	508	511.68	509.2(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	26	50	11	72	0.05	63%	-0.01	58.9	4.17%	0	0.9	72	0

11	Aug_17_2012	425.18	475.98	502.43	506.98	507.09	511.4	512.8(-0.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	103	60	101	108	0.06	63%	0.02	61.8	4.18%	0	1.1	63	0
12	Aug_16_2012	425.09	472.37	498.44	506.54	504.86	504.32	515.5(3.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	45	-20	32	83	0.09	63%	0.03	68.9	4.19%	0	1.3	65	0
13	Aug_15_2012	424.96	468.46	491.34	504.84	503.17	502.78	500.2(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-11	-20	-33	55	0.07	61%	-0.05	78.6	4.19%	0	1	69	0
14	Aug_14_2012	425.19	465.14	487.7	504.26	503.47	505.4	502.2(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	59	20	44	102	0.06	59%	-0.09	85.6	4.24%	0	1.2	77	0
15	Aug_13_2012	425.57	461.16	483.1	502.76	500.56	503.56	504.2(-1.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	70	30	54	118	0.08	59%	-0.05	91.5	4.28%	0	1.3	77	0

16	Aug_10_2012	425.79	456.42	479.72	496.82	497.06	501.54	510.6(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	111	60	100	142	0.1	59%	0	89.3	4.29%	0	1.7	70	0
17	Aug_9_2012	425.79	451.06	475.23	488.94	490.49	497.56	507(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	133	110	127	149	0.11	59%	-0.09	83	4.29%	0	1.7	65	0
18	Aug_8_2012	426.16	444.92	468.88	475.74	482.49	492.59	497.3(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	193	190	204	160	0.13	59%	-0.15	69	4.29%	0	1.6	64	0
19	Aug_7_2012	426.8	439.47	460.33	468.72	469.55	483.41	494.7(4.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	177	210	190	137	0.15	59%	-0.22	56.1	4.3%	0	1.7	65	0
20	Aug_6_2012	427.74	433.46	451.86	460.78	461.81	472.4	474.5(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	197	170	218	133	0.07	59%	-0.24	48.3	4.27%	0	1.3	64	0

21	Aug_3_2012	428.77	429.32	447.21	460.32	458.69	455.69	471.2(6.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	58	-60	53	72	0.15	54%	-0.2	48.8	4.35%	0	1.4	67	0
22	Aug_2_2012	429.63	425.54	444	459.78	458.6	451.21	441(-4.59%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-113	-120	-151	3	0.13	51%	-0.26	56.9	4.31%	0	0.6	63	0
23	Aug_1_2012	430.77	424.02	443.89	460.48	462.68	461.7	462.2(1.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	22	-0	1	84	0.14	54%	-0.26	66.2	4.31%	0	1.4	74	0
24	Jul_31_2012	431.88	422.1	440.95	449.96	456.92	465.99	455(-3.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	129	190	128	130	0.13	54%	-0.22	74.8	4.34%	0	1.2	71	0
25	Jul_30_2012	432.85	419.26	437.74	440.82	443.72	463.65	472.2(0.79%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	260	330	283	192	0.09	54%		80.6	4.34%	0	2	79	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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