Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 23, 2012

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $598.1000 (1.73%) ($578.1000 - $599.3000) on Thu. Feb. 23, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.21% (three month average)
RSI   83
Latest Price   $598.1000(1.73%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 4.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(67%)    SPY(66%)    USO(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.105% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-27%)    SHY(-5%)    IGOV(-2%)    TIP(5%)    GLD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.105% (StdDev 4.21%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $582.04(2.76%)
10 Day Moving Average   $563.51(6.14%)
20 Day Moving Average   $541.46(10.46%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   63%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.91% (three month std-dev: 4.21%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.81%(100%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 0.87%(20%) Average negative next three day return: -1.63%(80%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 3.36%(40%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.83%(60%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120323

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_23_2012	481.04	541.46	563.51	582.04	585.39	590.93	598.1(1.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	107	80	107	107	0.13	67%	0.57	55.8	4.21%	0	1.8	83	0
2	Feb_22_2012	478.32	537.9	558.25	571.4	576.42	588.03	587.9(0.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	162	170	172	130	0.19	67%	0.62	56.4	4.38%	0	1.7	83	0
3	Feb_21_2012	475.38	534.09	554.52	563.22	565.88	579.86	585.3(2.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	230	190	251	167	0.24	67%	1.02	58.6	4.4%	0	1.9	83	0
4	Feb_17_2012	470.59	530.55	550.18	554.58	555.18	564.81	572.2(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	194	120	208	150	0.16	67%	0.51	65.4	4.43%	0	1.7	74	0
5	Feb_16_2012	468.21	527.24	545.59	546.1	546.98	551.91	566.7(4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	115	70	118	107	0.22	67%	0.53	66.5	4.52%	0	1.8	69	0

6	Feb_15_2012	465.75	524.15	539.11	542.41	540.23	545.55	544.9(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	46	60	38	69	0.28	67%	0.41	71.1	4.53%	0	1	63	0
7	Feb_14_2012	463.87	522	534.31	543.13	540.3	542.04	547(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	65	10	62	72	0.22	67%	0.45	67.4	4.53%	0	1.1	53	0
8	Feb_13_2012	461.81	518.77	528.56	544.53	542.64	534.9	542.1(2.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-28	-110	-46	25	0.2	67%	0.51	67.3	4.55%	0	1.1	58	0
9	Feb_10_2012	459.45	515.35	524.35	545.05	543.47	538.56	529.8(-3.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-103	-70	-133	-13	0.2	67%	0.47	60.1	4.59%	0	0.6	54	0
10	Feb_9_2012	457.31	512.86	522.13	544.45	544.24	550.37	548.26(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	73	80	74	69	0.22	58%	0.36	53.2	4.6%	0	1.5	62	0

11	Feb_8_2012	455.67	509.88	518.12	534.8	537.34	548.38	548.5(-0.99%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	175	160	198	105	0.24	58%	0.25	40.4	4.89%	0	1.7	63	0
12	Feb_7_2012	454.53	507.73	516.01	523.72	523.56	538.11	554(1.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	179	190	205	100	0.25	58%	0.24	30.4	4.91%	0	2.2	66	0
13	Feb_6_2012	453.42	504.74	511.71	510.24	511.39	526.31	544.7(3.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	204	210	238	103	0.18	58%	0.18	22	4.92%	0	2.2	70	0
14	Feb_3_2012	452.61	501.92	508.67	501.08	502.44	509.01	526.8(5.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	151	100	176	76	0.24	58%	0.13	15.9	4.9%	0	1.6	70	0
15	Feb_2_2012	452.01	500.47	506.67	497.08	495.13	496.48	500(1.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-5	10	-8	4	0.15	55%	0.13	23.3	4.94%	0	-0	61	0

16	Feb_1_2012	451.43	500.87	507.52	499.18	497.24	495.86	493.1(1.34%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-21	-30	-29	2	0.22	49%	0.15	36	5.04%	0	-0.5	53	0
17	Jan_31_2012	450.75	501.46	508.66	507.12	504.6	493.78	486.6(-2.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-67	-170	-85	-12	0.3	43%	0.15	60.6	5.2%	0	-1	43	0
18	Jan_30_2012	450.09	500.81	508.65	512.92	510.49	498.61	498.9(-1.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-148	-180	-182	-47	0.28	43%	0.19	73.4	5.45%	0	-0.1	51	0
19	Jan_27_2012	449.25	499.5	506.41	516.96	515.02	515.43	506.8(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-61	-10	-79	-5	0.23	49%	0.1	78.1	5.45%	0	0.5	56	0
20	Jan_26_2012	448.79	497.12	503.79	517.38	517.67	522.37	510.5(-4.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	86	70	94	60	0.38	49%	0.07	78.5	5.65%	0	0.8	53	0

21	Jan_25_2012	448.47	495.69	501.83	516.82	513.07	514.6	532.8(3.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	34	-0	34	33	0.49	49%	0.24	91.9	5.68%	0	1.9	56	0
22	Jan_24_2012	447.41	492.87	499.09	510.68	510.19	512.98	515.6(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	41	40	44	31	0.18	49%	0.16	111.1	5.72%	0	1.3	53	0
23	Jan_23_2012	446.7	490.54	497.2	503.78	505.09	511.54	519.1(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	74	100	84	44	0.3	49%	0.17	121.9	5.74%	0	1.6	66	0
24	Jan_20_2012	445.95	487.19	494.25	494.3	497.2	507.4	508.9(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	113	160	132	57	0.22	49%	0.06	129	5.77%	0	1.3	64	0
25	Jan_19_2012	445.7	483.71	493.17	488.12	487.15	498.65	507.7(1.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	119	160	138	61	0.24	49%		118.8	5.77%	0	1.5	68	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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