Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Aug. 31, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $497.2000 (1.8%) ($483.8000 - $517.3000) on Wed. Aug. 31, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6.87% (three month average)
RSI   55
Latest Price   $497.2000(1.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -2.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(89%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(68%)    SPY(68%)    EEM(62%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -3.435% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-31%)    SHY(-6%)    TIP(2%)    IGOV(2%)    LQD(8%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3.435% (StdDev 6.87%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $465.92(6.71%)
10 Day Moving Average   $445.51(11.6%)
20 Day Moving Average   $462(7.62%)
To recent high   -42.5%
To recent low   27.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.05%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.05% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 13.78% (three month std-dev: 6.87%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20111001

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_31_2011	691.94	462	445.51	465.92	468.09	489.29	497.2(1.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	144	330	176	48	0.45	45%	-0.4	-83.3	6.87%	0	0.6	55	NAN
2	Aug_30_2011	694.75	469.68	445.28	456.64	453.17	474.91	488.4(1.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	210	310	252	85	0.35	45%	-0.53	-76.1	6.87%	0	0.2	62	NAN
3	Aug_29_2011	698.42	478.44	445.5	447.7	443.58	446.89	481.7(8.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	148	20	179	54	0.28	45%	-0.61	-69.5	6.92%	0	0	55	NAN
4	Aug_26_2011	702.68	490.42	448.89	429.48	430.77	431.43	442.1(5.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-43	20	-46	-34	0.43	43%	-0.64	-67.6	6.82%	0	-0.4	58	NAN
5	Aug_25_2011	707.23	504.93	452.4	420.86	427.8	440.28	420.2(-6.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	84	250	108	10	0.36	44%	-0.67	-65.8	6.79%	0	-0.7	45	NAN

6	Aug_24_2011	711.99	521.89	457.4	421.32	420.34	430.11	450.8(1.6%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.2	77	160	104	-3	0.34	45%	-0.66	-63.4	6.77%	0	-0.5	46	NAN
7	Aug_23_2011	716.73	538.14	453.63	432.7	419.8	415.33	443.7(13.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-86	-160	-79	-108	0.49	44%	-0.66	-57.5	6.79%	0	-0.6	38	NAN
8	Aug_22_2011	721.46	556.99	454.91	444.26	443.79	410.56	390.6(-2.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-219	-530	-227	-194	0.52	41%	-0.72	-52.6	6.57%	0	-1.1	32	NAN
9	Aug_19_2011	726.71	579.57	457.18	471.76	466.75	424.28	399(-5.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-482	-670	-529	-341	0.47	41%	-0.7	-46.6	6.57%	0	-1.1	30	NAN
10	Aug_18_2011	731.8	602.52	470.25	487.74	492.5	477.03	422.5(-16.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-297	-190	-306	-268	0.45	42%	-0.67	-43	6.54%	0	-1.1	31	NAN

11	Aug_17_2011	736.7	623.87	481.67	496.72	504.31	509.23	507.7(1.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	46	110	105	-133	0.34	46%	-0.51	-40.1	6.26%	0	-0.7	34	NAN
12	Aug_16_2011	740.48	638.61	496.39	476.58	487.3	507.98	501.5(-5.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	92	360	167	-134	0.42	46%	-0.48	-41.6	6.26%	0	-0.8	33	NAN
13	Aug_15_2011	744.06	654.12	513.17	467.32	468.05	499.4	528.1(10.27%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	272	470	385	-67	0.34	46%	-0.45	-41.9	6.24%	0	-0.8	32	NAN
14	Aug_12_2011	747.41	666.6	532.85	441.68	446.57	466.62	478.9(2.46%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.2	189	350	295	-131	0.41	43%	-0.48	-45.3	6.1%	0	-1.2	26	NAN
15	Aug_11_2011	751.01	682.47	558.91	451.9	434.88	436.69	467.4(14.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-90	-80	-33	-262	0.56	41%	-0.48	-46	6.09%	0	-1.4	24	NAN

16	Aug_10_2011	754.66	696.48	588.98	465.96	456.46	426.53	407(-10.59%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-318	-520	-300	-372	0.51	37%	-0.56	-48.8	5.85%	0	-2	15	NAN
17	Aug_9_2011	758.88	714.56	628.11	520.04	497.12	433.08	455.2(13.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-751	-1030	-819	-547	0.61	40%	-0.5	-46.8	5.73%	0	-2	23	NAN
18	Aug_8_2011	762.67	729.45	666.75	566.7	559.19	486.39	399.9(-24.55%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.5	-986	-950	-1103	-633	0.78	35%	-0.49	-45.1	5.48%	0	-2.9	11	NAN
19	Aug_5_2011	766.39	747.83	713.53	636.58	628.69	561.16	530(-1.43%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.2	-1044	-790	-1181	-631	0.55	40%	-0.32	-41.5	4.59%	0	-2.5	24	NAN
20	Aug_4_2011	768.84	761.38	747.89	681.26	686.91	632	537.7(-20.62%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-2	-864	-530	-985	-502	0.55	38%	-0.23	-32.2	4.65%	0	-3.1	24	NAN

21	Aug_3_2011	770.59	775.43	781.05	729.1	728.19	696.21	677.4(-1.61%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-697	-310	-803	-380	0.28	42%	-0.09	-13.1	3.94%	0	-1.9	48	NAN
22	Aug_2_2011	771.29	780.4	795.01	752.56	755.53	741.83	688.5(-8.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-359	-120	-415	-189	0.26	41%	-0.1	7.8	4.04%	0	-2	48	NAN
23	Aug_1_2011	772.05	785	808.52	782.84	778.26	760.16	749.3(-0.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-234	-180	-282	-89	0.28	43%	-0.01	44.4	3.95%	0	-0.8	59	NAN
24	Jul_29_2011	772.09	785.76	812.04	803.38	798.55	769.23	753.4(-3.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-437	-280	-530	-158	0.15	45%	0.05	75.4	3.98%	0	-0.8	58	NAN
25	Jul_28_2011	771.72	785.28	816.19	825.7	821.87	796.36	776.9(-2.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-437	-230	-538	-134	0.25	45%		99.8	4.02%	0	-0.2	52	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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