Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Jan. 4, 2011

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $586.3000 (-2.01%) ($569.5000 - $608.0000) on Tue. Jan. 4, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.89% (three month average)
RSI   75
Latest Price   $586.3000(-2.01%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 5.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(69%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.445% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(3%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.445% (StdDev 2.89%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -3.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $586.58(-0.05%)
10 Day Moving Average   $575.2(1.93%)
20 Day Moving Average   $551.85(6.24%)
To recent high   -2%
To recent low   77.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.81% (three month std-dev: 2.89%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 8 Average positive next day return: 3.9%(50%) Average negative next day return: -2.37%(50%) Sample size 8 Average positive next three day return: 3.3%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -2.29%(50%) Sample size 8 Average positive next weekly return: 3.03%(63%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.39%(38%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110204

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_4_2011	404.12	551.85	575.2	586.58	590.01	596.34	586.3(-2.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	130	90	122	155	0.2	72%	0.76	87.3	2.89%	0	1.3	75	0
2	Jan_3_2011	401.06	548.63	570.74	582.7	586.04	591.94	598.3(2.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	231	90	242	198	0.17	72%	0.8	98.9	2.92%	0	1.9	77	0
3	Dec_31_2010	397.88	544.47	563.95	574.98	577.17	583.69	584.5(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	131	90	128	141	0.08	72%	0.76	113.6	2.93%	0	1.7	78	0
4	Dec_30_2010	394.86	540.67	558.55	571.34	571.06	580.14	583.2(0.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	206	110	216	175	0.1	72%	0.75	124.7	2.95%	0	1.9	79	0
5	Dec_29_2010	391.91	535.94	552.32	567.06	566.12	570.65	580.6(2.42%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	183	50	191	160	0.1	72%	0.68	129.1	2.95%	0	1.9	79	0

6	Dec_28_2010	389.25	529.61	547.15	562.28	562.35	561.98	566.9(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	60	-0	47	99	0.09	72%	0.63	102.1	2.95%	0	1.4	73	0
7	Dec_27_2010	386.83	524.2	543.93	556.84	559.02	561.59	559.7(-1.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	57	40	45	93	0.09	72%	0.76	85.8	2.96%	0	1.2	67	0
8	Dec_23_2010	383.93	518.84	540.27	550.9	553.39	562.73	566.3(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	189	130	203	146	0.09	74%	0.61	72.1	3%	0	1.5	73	0
9	Dec_22_2010	381.59	513.72	535.34	543.6	544.48	556.45	561.8(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	278	160	312	177	0.12	74%	0.62	70.8	3.03%	0	1.5	75	0
10	Dec_21_2010	379.22	507.79	530.42	535.3	534.71	544.05	556.7(3.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	237	120	265	151	0.16	74%	0.62	63.1	3.05%	0	1.5	79	0

11	Dec_20_2010	376.9	503.26	526.39	530.04	527.68	532.5	539.7(1.83%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	123	50	127	110	0.19	74%	0.66	62.9	3.04%	0	1.1	84	0
12	Dec_17_2010	374.44	499.8	524.61	529.34	526.81	525.36	530(0.04%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	36	-30	18	90	0.14	74%	0.63	65.6	3.07%	0	0.9	80	0
13	Dec_16_2010	372.08	496.39	523.42	527.98	529.33	522.86	529.8(1.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-42	-80	-81	75	0.17	74%	0.63	61.5	3.08%	0	1	81	0
14	Dec_15_2010	369.74	491.73	521.47	525.64	528.91	528.26	520.3(-1.9%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-60	10	-106	79	0.21	74%	0.61	52.4	3.09%	0	0.9	70	0
15	Dec_14_2010	367.51	487.37	518.6	524.36	527.38	535.8	530.4(-1.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	156	130	142	198	0.25	74%	0.63	46.5	3.07%	0	1.2	78	0

16	Dec_13_2010	365.22	483.59	511.12	521.98	523.58	529.56	536.2(2.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	198	90	193	211	0.23	74%	0.67	47.2	3.07%	0	1.5	67	0
17	Dec_10_2010	362.78	479.71	503.29	519.4	521.81	518.97	523.2(0.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	50	-20	22	135	0.22	74%	0.65	51.4	3.07%	0	1.4	64	0
18	Dec_9_2010	360.45	477.48	496.15	518.38	521.95	517.59	518.1(0.82%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-49	-40	-94	86	0.25	74%	0.69	60.9	3.08%	0	1.3	65	0
19	Dec_8_2010	357.98	474.82	490.77	516.72	520.01	524.65	513.9(-0.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	52	80	21	144	0.23	74%	0.65	74.2	3.08%	0	1.4	71	0
20	Dec_7_2010	355.67	471.58	483.71	511.58	515.76	526.3	518.5(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	303	170	318	259	0.43	74%	0.71	81.7	3.08%	0	1.7	72	0

21	Dec_6_2010	353.15	468.05	478.35	497.98	503.17	515.38	523.3(1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	331	200	358	248	0.26	74%	0.75	85.4	3.14%	0	2.2	64	0
22	Dec_3_2010	350.51	463.95	472.7	484.46	484.49	505.21	518.1(1.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	354	300	394	235	0.29	74%	0.68	93.9	3.16%	0	2.4	61	0
23	Dec_2_2010	348.15	459.83	466.58	470.66	468.66	490.96	509.8(4.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	485	320	560	261	0.28	74%	0.66	104.2	3.17%	0	2.7	54	0
24	Dec_1_2010	345.87	454.53	458.83	461.52	456.12	463.76	488.2(8.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	296	80	347	143	0.34	76%	0.6	95.9	3.15%	0	1.8	54	0
25	Nov_30_2010	343.82	450.24	452.97	452.2	450.05	446.36	450.5(-1.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-28	-70	-26	-35	0.26	74%		78.1	3.23%	0	0	51	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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