Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Dec. 1, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $488.2000 (8.37%) ($471.2000 - $493.6000) on Wed. Dec. 1, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.15% (three month average)
RSI   54
Latest Price   $488.2000(8.37%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(70%)    EEM(63%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -1.575% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(4%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.575% (StdDev 3.15%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $461.52(5.78%)
10 Day Moving Average   $458.83(6.4%)
20 Day Moving Average   $454.53(7.41%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   73.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 4.13% (three month std-dev: 3.15%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 2.42%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0.29%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 4.64%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.24%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110101

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_1_2010	345.87	454.53	458.83	461.52	456.12	463.76	488.2(8.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	296	80	347	143	0.34	76%	0.6	95.9	3.15%	0	1.8	54	0
2	Nov_30_2010	343.82	450.24	452.97	452.2	450.05	446.36	450.5(-1.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-28	-70	-26	-35	0.26	74%	0.52	78.1	3.23%	0	0	51	0
3	Nov_29_2010	342.05	447.39	453.6	455.7	448.84	448.48	455.7(1.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-103	-50	-117	-62	0.32	74%	0.53	69.9	3.29%	0	0.3	52	0
4	Nov_26_2010	340.26	444.03	454.22	458.95	452.45	453.74	449.1(-3.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	32	-20	38	13	0.14	76%	0.75	65	3.39%	0	0.2	53	0
5	Nov_24_2010	337.74	441.04	457.52	461.43	455.39	449.2	464.12(5.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-13	-130	-21	11	0.22	76%	0.67	60.5	3.37%	0	0.7	58	0

6	Nov_23_2010	335.49	437.23	457.81	455.51	455.37	451.15	441.6(-5.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-103	-70	-130	-22	0.38	74%	0.32	54.9	3.39%	0	0.1	64	0
7	Nov_22_2010	334.42	434.85	459.07	453.25	452.96	461.58	468(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	91	130	94	83	0.29	79%	0.72	54.9	3.29%	0	1	71	0
8	Nov_19_2010	332.04	430.85	457.38	451.05	446.32	459.59	471.93(2.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	213	180	231	157	0.19	79%	0.73	52.3	3.33%	0	1.2	75	0
9	Nov_18_2010	329.64	426.49	454.68	449.28	446.36	444.35	461.5(6.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	144	-50	144	143	0.28	79%	0.7	51.4	3.39%	0	1	75	0
10	Nov_17_2010	327.36	422.36	452.56	453.9	448.28	433.05	434.5(0.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-250	-270	-330	-9	0.27	78%	0.59	55.3	3.35%	0	0.4	71	0

11	Nov_16_2010	325.43	419.77	450.21	460.78	458.55	448.38	430.3(-5.84%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.8	-204	-170	-284	37	0.42	78%	0.51	58.9	3.39%	0	0.3	70	0
12	Nov_15_2010	323.79	416.74	447.97	465.02	464.83	463.5	457(-1.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-9	-20	-62	151	0.28	84%	0.56	62.2	3.3%	0	1.1	77	0
13	Nov_12_2010	322	413.41	441.44	463.9	463.13	468.73	463.1(-4.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	119	80	87	215	0.36	84%	0.58	66.3	3.29%	0	1.4	81	0
14	Nov_11_2010	320.13	409.39	433.68	460.39	458.39	466.16	484.6(3.35%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	230	110	218	267	0.44	80%	0.59	69.5	3.24%	0	2.2	92	0
15	Nov_10_2010	318.24	404.02	423.45	451.39	450.56	457.54	468.9(3.85%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	196	100	184	230	0.34	79%	0.52	76.2	3.42%	0	2.2	92	0

16	Nov_9_2010	316.59	399.48	414.84	438.39	443.15	450.61	451.5(0.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	235	150	238	225	0.42	77%	0.37	76.5	3.42%	0	2	89	0
17	Nov_8_2010	315.42	395.31	408.44	428.25	429.3	443.58	451.4(1.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	231	240	237	213	0.27	77%	0.37	76.7	3.42%	0	2.4	91	0
18	Nov_5_2010	314.26	391.16	401.69	415.37	417.52	435.68	445.56(1.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	385	320	428	255	0.34	77%	0.37	82.1	3.45%	0	2.8	67	0
19	Nov_4_2010	313.09	387.17	395.25	402.82	404.82	415.03	439.6(8.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.3	312	190	351	194	0.33	77%	0.35	85.3	3.44%	0	3.3	68	0
20	Nov_3_2010	312	382.91	388.73	391.68	392.51	399.37	403.9(0.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	97	130	107	68	0.3	74%	0.24	103.7	3.29%	0	1.8	60	0

21	Nov_2_2010	311.26	380.77	386.24	387.9	389.33	394.62	400.8(3.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	157	110	181	86	0.22	78%	0.3	105.2	3.29%	0	1.7	59	0
22	Nov_1_2010	310.32	378.4	382.76	385.7	384.8	385.66	387(1.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	28	10	31	18	0.25	77%	0.25	90.8	3.49%	0	0.6	60	0
23	Oct_29_2010	309.54	375.78	383.21	385.76	383.84	384.04	382.8(-0.29%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-20	-10	-27	3	0.22	77%	0.25	89	3.49%	0	0.4	58	0
24	Oct_28_2010	308.77	373.9	383.51	386.22	387.05	383.94	383.9(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	-50	13	27	0.21	77%	0.38	86.2	3.49%	0	0.5	60	0
25	Oct_27_2010	307.6	371.38	383.46	385.08	386.28	383.64	385(-1.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-71	-40	-92	-6	0.26	77%		85.4	3.49%	0	0.7	66	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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