Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jul. 13, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $285.3000 (3.56%) ($281.9000 - $290.0000) on Tue. Jul. 13, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.91% (three month average)
RSI   41
Latest Price   $285.3000(3.56%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 3.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(70%)    SPY(70%)    EEM(64%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.955% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-8%)    TIP(0%)    IGOV(4%)    LQD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.955% (StdDev 5.91%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $275.3(3.63%)
10 Day Moving Average   $257.35(10.86%)
20 Day Moving Average   $281.21(1.45%)
To recent high   -41%
To recent low   22.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.03%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.03% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 12.46% (three month std-dev: 5.91%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100813

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_13_2010	358.07	281.21	257.35	275.3	276.63	280.23	285.3(3.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	80	110	97	29	0.4	44%	-0.25	-13.1	5.91%	0	0.1	41	NAN
2	Jul_12_2010	358.95	282.17	255.13	266.12	268.53	275.03	275.5(-0.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	47	200	70	-24	0.28	44%	-0.31	-14.5	5.89%	0	-0.2	30	NAN
3	Jul_9_2010	360.08	283.82	255.02	257.52	260.26	273.03	278.2(1.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	111	380	157	-26	0.34	44%	-0.3	-16.1	5.89%	0	-0.2	30	NAN
4	Jul_8_2010	361.17	285.15	254.54	248.74	250.08	262.04	273.4(3.52%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	123	350	180	-49	0.5	44%	-0.3	-22	5.9%	0	-0.3	31	NAN
5	Jul_7_2010	362.25	285.07	256.26	241.32	241.03	247.5	264.1(10.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	50	180	101	-104	0.59	44%	-0.33	-30	5.88%	0	-0.6	27	NAN

6	Jul_6_2010	363.44	285.86	259.9	237.16	238.13	238.11	239.4(2.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-30	10	13	-158	0.47	41%	-0.33	-31.4	5.72%	0	-1.3	12	NAN
7	Jul_2_2010	364.63	287.38	268.98	242.84	239.94	234.55	232.5(-0.77%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-120	-190	-98	-185	0.41	42%	-0.35	-33.2	5.71%	0	-1.6	24	NAN
8	Jul_1_2010	365.92	289.68	279.23	252.22	250.08	238.15	234.3(-0.85%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-143	-360	-133	-174	0.87	44%	-0.29	-33.6	5.75%	0	-1.7	24	NAN
9	Jun_30_2010	367	293.31	288.92	261.07	261.31	245.33	236.3(-2.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-211	-430	-219	-186	0.36	44%	-0.3	-25.5	5.75%	0	-1.9	27	NAN
10	Jun_29_2010	368.11	296.37	298.67	273.21	272.5	262.01	243.3(-9.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-198	-280	-215	-147	0.79	45%	-0.23	-14.1	5.75%	0	-1.9	49	NAN

11	Jun_28_2010	368.96	297.61	307.82	285.78	285.23	277.29	267.8(-4.15%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-110	-200	-123	-72	0.41	47%	-0.18	-5.3	5.69%	0	-1.2	53	NAN
12	Jun_25_2010	369.63	299.16	312.3	299.18	296.1	282.98	279.4(0.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-154	-340	-186	-58	0.64	46%	-0.16	9.2	5.67%	0	-0.8	62	NAN
13	Jun_24_2010	370.21	300.82	315.83	310.66	311.74	293.17	278.55(-6.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-168	-410	-213	-33	0.43	46%	-0.28	28	5.69%	0	-0.9	58	NAN
14	Jun_23_2010	371.24	301	319.15	321.03	323.15	309.22	297(-2.98%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-180	-280	-234	-16	0.34	47%	-0.26	31.3	5.65%	0	-0.2	51	NAN
15	Jun_22_2010	372.19	300.3	317.04	327.85	330.63	330.31	306.13(-8.56%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.9	-45	20	-78	56	0.49	47%	-0.19	28.6	5.64%	0	0.2	57	NAN

16	Jun_21_2010	372.88	298.97	314.56	332.8	333.05	337.09	334.8(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	101	90	87	144	0.36	49%	-0.02	21.6	5.54%	0	1.4	72	NAN
17	Jun_18_2010	372.94	296.9	307.49	327.32	328.33	330.95	336.8(1.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	61	70	45	107	0.26	48%	-0.06	5.3	5.55%	0	1.7	59	NAN
18	Jun_17_2010	373.17	294.1	300.81	322.02	324.36	329.01	330.4(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	77	120	71	94	0.34	48%	-0.11	-20	5.57%	0	1.6	54	NAN
19	Jun_16_2010	373.58	293.49	297.52	317.18	317.7	325.7	331.1(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	111	180	111	109	0.44	48%	-0.13	-38.6	5.59%	0	1.7	61	NAN
20	Jun_15_2010	374.05	293.31	293.09	304.6	309.79	319.7	330.9(7.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	148	280	162	107	0.52	48%	-0.14	-59.6	5.6%	0	1.7	60	NAN

21	Jun_14_2010	374.58	293.59	285.67	293.64	298.64	309.7	307.4(-0.93%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	143	310	164	79	0.5	46%	-0.18	-73.9	5.52%	0	0.6	58	NAN
22	Jun_11_2010	375.26	295.62	284.07	284.5	286.98	299.88	310.3(1.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	141	340	168	60	0.29	46%	-0.25	-70.8	5.52%	0	0.5	53	NAN
23	Jun_10_2010	376.19	298.56	283.63	276.46	278.56	287.58	306.2(14.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	121	250	147	44	0.65	46%	-0.33	-62.9	5.52%	0	0.2	56	NAN
24	Jun_9_2010	377.45	302.11	280.52	275.52	274.28	274.09	268.2(-2.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	2	-20	13	-30	0.57	42%	-0.49	-56.7	5.22%	0	-0.9	42	NAN
25	Jun_8_2010	379.31	307.21	281.91	279.98	278.5	269.54	276.1(5.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-57	-240	-53	-67	0.53	42%		-56.2	5.21%	0	-0.8	41	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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